GlobalCommoditiesResearchMetalsOutlookPresentationGlobalCommoditiesResearchNatashaKanevaGregoryShearerExecutiveDirectorVicePresident(1-212)834-3175(44-20)7134-8161natasha.kaneva@jpmorgan.comgregory.c.shearer@jpmorgan.comJPMorganChaseBankNAJ.P.MorganSecuritiesplcSeetheendpagesofthispresentationforimportantdisclosures.J.P.Morgandoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.March2019Imagesources:UCRusal,WorldGoldCouncil,Glencoreplc,Nornickel.Usedwithpermission.METALSOUTLOOKPRESENTATION1Thesoftpatchinglobalgrowthlookslikelytopersistatleastthroughmid-year,butthedovishturnsbymajorcentralbanksandincreasinglyaggressivepolicysupportfromChinahasfuelledexpectationsofanimprovedgrowthprofile.Somesignsofstabilizationhaveemergedinrecentmonths,butthedataflowremainschoppy.Source:J.P.MorganSource:J.P.MorganJ.P.MorganRealGDPForecastRevisionIndexIndex,4Jan2002=100;Changesreflect%-pointrevisionto4-quarterrollingpercentchangeforecastJ.P.MorganEconomicActivitySurpriseIndexPercent92.592.792.993.193.393.593.789.589.789.990.190.390.590.790.991.191.391.5Jan-17Mar-17May-17Jul-17Sep-17Nov-17Jan-18Mar-18May-18Jul-18Sep-18Nov-18Jan-19Mar-19DMGlobalEM(RHS)-30-20-100102030Jan-18Feb-18Mar-18Apr-18May-18Jun-18Jul-18Aug-18Sep-18Oct-18Nov-18Dec-18Jan-19Feb-19Mar-19EASIDMEASIEMEASIGlobalMETALSOUTLOOKPRESENTATION2Industrialmetalshaveanticipatedstabilizationintheglobalgrowthmomentum.Morespecifically,atcurrentspotlevels,metalsaretradingata~20%premiumtothecurrentglobalPMIof50.6.Thispremiumisrare,occurringonlythreetimesinthelasttenyears:1H08,mid-2011andearly2015.Inallcases,itwasaprecursorforlowerprices.Source:Bloomberg,J.P.MorganCommoditiesResearchBloombergIndustrialMetalsSubindexTRpremium/discounttoglobalmanufacturingPMIPercent-25-20-15-10-50510152025Jan-14Mar-14May-14Jul-14Sep-14Nov-14Jan-15Ma...
