J.P. 摩根-全球-宏观策略-全球宏观数据观察-2019.5.24-84页 (2).pdf

Economic ResearchMay 24,2019Global Data Watch Strong 1Q GDP giving way to sluggish goods sector;2Q downgraded Asia rebound continues,but likely fleeting without final demand pull PM May resigns;odds of“no-deal”Brexit rise to 25%Next week:fade signal from expected strong JPN,KOR Apr IP reportsWhiplashAs GDP reports for 1Q19 roll in,topline growth looks stronger than implied by the mood at that time.The US,Japan,and China all reported outturns that were stronger than anticipated at the close of the quarter.Indeed,all three look to have expanded well above their potential.Combined with a bounce back in the Euro area,global GDP now looks to have grown a strong 3%ar last quar-ter,0.3%-pt above its potential.For a quarter that was plagued by the US-China trade war,political unrest roiling Europe,the longest government shut-down in US history,and a sharp pullback in equity prices around the turn of the year,the strong GDP gain is striking.But looks can be deceiving,and be-neath the surface are signs that momentum is slowing.Perhaps the most puzzling aspect of the strong 1Q GDP reports is that they contrast so much with the manufacturing sector,which eked out only a 0.8%ar gain following a similarly weak outturn in 4Q18(Figure 1).There are at least two ways to interpret the discrepancy.First,despite the weakness in fac-tory output,there is considerable purchasing power and demand to drive ro-bust gains in services that will be sufficient to sustain solid above-potential growth in the coming quarters.An alternative however is that the weakness in the goods sector is a truer signal of headwinds that are likely to linger and assert themselves more broadly in the middle quarters of the year.We are inclined toward the latter of these explanations,a view this weeks flash PMIs for May bolstered,with not only a disappointing drop in the manufacturing index but also a large decline in the services component.On balance,our J.P.Morgan flash global PMI dipped 0.7pt this month to a level consistent with 2.5%global GDP growthaligning with our global GDP nowcaster.We mark to mar-ket our US forecast this week.Rather than increasing 2.3%ar this quarter,we now see GDP edging up just 1%.This downgrade alone lowers our global GDP fore-cast 0.3%-pt to 2.6%.Given our prior analysis showing the spillover of US revi-sions to forecasts elsewhere,the rest of the world could see 2Q19 growth mark-downs of over 0.5%-pt in the coming weeks(Figure 2;see herepg.20-22).0123456111213141516171819%q/q,saar;(1Q19 box estimate)Figure 1:Global GDP and factory outputSource:J.P.MorganReal GDPMfg output0.00.20.40.60.81.0wk1wk3wk5wk7wk9 wk11Figure 2:Impulse response to US revisionSource:J.P.Morgan;Average estimated 2000 to 2014EMUEMEA EMJapanEM AsiaLatamCum%-pt revision from 1%-pt revision to USContentsEM Asia and tariffs:When elephants fight,the grass suffers10Euro area:ECB faces de-anchoring challenge14Euro area:Whats up with capex and corporate profits?18How much can the CEE grow if the Euro area keeps slowing?20Zambia:Surviving on the edge24Global Economic Outlook Summary4Global Central Bank Watch6Nowcast of global growth7Selected recent research from J.P.Morgan Economics9Data WatchesUnited States26Euro area33Japan39Canada43Mexico45Brazil47Argentina49Chile51United Kingdom53Emerging Europe55South Africa&SSA57EMEA EM focus59Australia and New Zealand60China,Hong Kong,and Taiwan62Korea66ASEAN68India72Asia focus74Regional Data Calendars76Bruce Kasman(1-212)834-JPMorgan Chase Bank NADavid Hensley(1-212)834-JPMorgan Chase Bank NAJoseph Lupton(1-212)834-JPMorgan Chase Bank NA2Economic ResearchGlobal Data WatchMay 24,2019JPMorgan Chase Bank NABruce Kasman(1-212)834-David Hensley(1-212)834-Joseph Lupton(1-212)834-With some early-year headwinds potentially still lingering and the US-China trade war escalating,our concerns are focused on declining business sentiment and slowing spending growth on capital equipment(see here).Based on the latest GDP re-ports,global equipment spending is tracking a soft 1.3%an-nualized gain last quarter.This is stronger than the stall we have been looking for but still weak.More worrying is that the monthly data suggest momentum is still fading.Most of the available data for April have been soft.This includes weak readings from the investment goods PMI,contractions in US and China capital goods IP,and disappointing capital goods export data from a few early reporters.Consequently,based our recently developed global capex nowcaster,global capital expenditures are tracking a sizable 1.6%drop last month.At the same time,manufacturers expectations tumbled in April to their lowest level since 2012(Figure 3;see here).And alt-hough the expectations components of the US regional Fed surveys and Japan Reuters Tankan out this week moved up in May,the flash global future output PMI for this month took another big step down.In last weeks GDW,we listed a number of healthy underlying fundamentals,including strong job growth,healthy balance sheets,and supportive fiscal and monetary policies.We still see these factors containing the risk of recession.Still,with much of the 1Q GDP strength based on one-offs(US invento-ries,fading EMU industrial and political disruptions,and re-connecting Asian supply chains)and with the latest escalation of the US-China trade war,the headwinds are likely to con-tinue.The risks are that global growth is held to a trend-like or even sub-trend pace this quarter and next.Asia ex.China picking up.for nowWe have looked for a broad-based recovery in manufacturing output and trade flows across Asia this quarter.This call was premised on the fading of region-specific drags,especially the supply-chain disruption that took hold around the turn of the year when a sharp drop in Chinese intermediate goods imports sent a depressing impulse through the rest of the region.The rebound would help to temporarily lift global IP growth back toward 3%this quarter.However,sustaining strong growth beyond midyear requires a recovery in global capex and con-tinued solid gains in consumer spending.The good news is that the anticipated Asian lift is unfolding.April IP reports this week from Taiwan and Singapore were positive and we expect additional good news from Korea and Japan next week(Figure 4).We also see some pickup in re-gional exports.The bad news is that the unexpected flare-up in the US-China trade conflict is likely to short-circuit the normalization.Likewise,the renewed trade tensions and asso-ciated uncertainty dim the prospects for a pickup in global capex in 2H19.As noted above,manufacturers expectations plunged in this weeks flash G-3 May PMIs.We will learn more when the full round of May PMI surveys is released on June 3.Mixed data point to moderate EMU growthThis weeks Euro area data were mixed.The German 1Q19 GDP report marked a big increase in domestic final sales and exports.That GDP rose only 1.7%q/q,saar was due to a huge drag from inventories.Car production remained weak through April,but the prospect of normalization from last years dis-ruptions may be getting nearer.In this context,it is encourag-ing that manufacturing surveys improved in May,albeit from extremely low levels,and that manufacturers future output expectations in the PMI edged up.It is also encouraging that Euro area wage growth remains solid,with negotiated wages rising at a new recovery high of 2.2%oya in 1Q19,and that firm job creation is adding further support to consumers.Against this backdrop,Euro area consumer confidence rose to a seven-month high in May.Unfortunately,none of these im-provements managed to boost the Euro area composite PMI or IFO expectations.In particular,softening in services and an-other setback in the periphery kept the regional PMI broadly unchanged in May at a level signaling only 1.2%GDP-1.0-0.50.00.51.01.52.02014201520162017201820192020Std dev from avgFigure 3:Global confidenceSource:J.P.MorganMfg expectationsConsumer-30-20-100102030Jan 18Apr 18Jul 18Oct 18Jan 19Apr 19%3m,saar;incl Apr est for Korea,JapanFigure 4:Manufacturing outputSource:J.P.MorganTaiwanKoreaJapan3Economic ResearchGlobal Data WatchMay 24,2019JPMorgan Chase Bank NABruce Kasman(1-212)834-David Hensley(1-212)834-Joseph Lupton(1-212)834-growth.Hence,risks to our 1.5%q/q,saar forecast for 2Q19 GDP growth are still modestly skewed to the downside.UK:Fearing October after the end of MayPM Mays resignation means the Conservative Party will choose a new leader and PM in coming weeks.A candidate who would be more aggressive in the Brexit negotiations is likely to succeed,with Boris Johnson being the front-runner.As a result,the odds of a“no deal”Brexit have increased 10%-pts to 25%.The EU is unlikely to comply with any UK demands to remove the Irish backstop from the Withdrawal Agreement.MPs in the House of Commons will need to in-tervene to prevent“no deal”from occurring but neither their ability nor their willingness is clear.Deadlock between the executive and the House would point to a general election before the end of the year.Despite this political backdrop,UK growth has held up fairly well.But Brexit uncertainties,glob-al growth concerns,and this weeks downward inflation sur-prise suggest the MPC is likely to remain sidelined.We pushback our call for a hike to 1Q20.Two more banks signal rate cuts aheadIn recent months,our publications have highlighted the steady turn toward easier monetary policy.Some central banks,how-ever,have held off moving in this direction.This week,sever-al of these laggards joined the broader trend.Contrary to our expectations,the RBA held off cutting rates earlier this month.This weeks minutes from the May meeting signal it plans to cut rates next month.The minutes stated that in the absence of labor market improvements,“a decrease in the cash rate would likely be appropriate.”The governors speech later in the day concluded“at our meeting in two weeks time,we will consider the case to lower interest rates.”We pull forward rate cuts by one month to June and July.This weeks communications from South Africas MPC also revealed a dovish shift.Although officials left rates on hold at 6.75%,the narrow 3-to-2 vote and more dovish forward guidance with lowered inflation forecasts prompt us to add a 25bp rate cut in 4Q19.However,the countrys precarious fiscal situation will limit the extent of the easing cycle and we see only a 30%-40%chance of an additional rate cut next year.Modi wins big despite economic challengesThe RBI is already in the midst of an easing cycle and further action is expected.However,there is some uncertainty around the timing of the next cut as we wait for the Budget from the new government.Indias prime minister and the BJP swept to a decisive victory in the general election,securing back-to back majorities in parliament for the first time since 1971.The win has earned Modi and his party considerable political capital.This capital will have to be deployed quickly as In-dias growth has slowed significantly in recent months.How-ever,the new administration is limited by financial fragility in the shadow-banking system and fiscal constraints.Therefore,the pressure is likely to fall on monetary policy.The RBI has already delivered back-to-back cuts and we expect at least one more.While our base case remains a June cut,there is some chance the MPC delivers more liquidity and focuses on mone-tary transmission at the June reviewdelaying the next cut to August when uncertainty around the new governments first Budget and the monsoon would have been resolved.Argentina:Lower tail risksArgentinas depressed economy and high inflation have taken a heavy toll on President Macris popularity.With a general election in October,markets have become concerned about the possible return to a populist government headed by former president Cristina Kirchner.It thus came as a major surprise this week when Kirchner announced she will run as VP in the August primaries with Alberto Fernandez,a centrist,as the presidential candidate.This should lessen worries about some of the more extreme scenarios investors fear.Nonetheless,the threat of debt restructuring/re-profiling keeps alive the risk of further portfolio dollarization.Amid high uncertainty,the March economic activity data point to downside risk.Howev-er,inflation looks to have crested.USMCA still bogged downThe recent announcement that the US,Canada,and Mexico have agreed to rescind last years tariff hikes on steel and aluminum marks a positive step toward eventual passage of the USMCA.Indeed,Canada and Mexico could approve the bill in the next couple of months.At the same time,domestic political developments suggest the prospects for near-term approval in the US are dimming.This weeks confrontation between President Trump and Democratic Party leaders un-derscored that gridlock could ensue in the US Congress once it receives the USMCA implementing bill.The silver lining is with the US now engaged in a new high-stakes confrontation with China,President Trump may be reluctant to invoke the“nuclear”option of withdrawing from the existing NAFTA in order to force the Democrats hand.Editor:Gabriel de Kock(1-212)622-6718 4Economic ResearchGlobal economic outlook sum-maryMay 24,2019JPMorgan Chase Bank NADavid Hensley(1-212)834-Carlton Strong(1-212)834-Joseph Lupton(1-212)834-Global economic outlook summary Real GDPReal GDPConsumer prices%over a year ago%over previous period,saar%over a year ago2018201920203Q184Q181Q192Q193Q194Q192Q184Q182Q194Q19United States2.9 2.41.73.4 2.2 3.2 1.01.8 1.8 2.7 2.2 1.9 2.2Canada1.81.21.72.00.40.51.02.22.32.32.02.02.0Latin America1.31.4 2.31.5 0.60.4 2.7 2.52.2 3.5 4.0 4.1 3.5Argentina-2.5-1.22.5-2.0-4.72.52.52.01.027.147.457.739.8Brazil1.1 1.5 2.5 2.2 0.5 0.4 2.8 3.0 2.4 3.3 4.1 4.6 3.7Chile4.03.12.90.55.3-0.15.63.54.0 2.22.41.92.6Colombia2.6 2.8 3.0 3.3 2.8 0.0 4.5 3.5 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.2 3.5Ecuador1.4-0.3-0.83.20.3-1.0-2.0-2.0-2.0-0.80.30.30.1Mexico2.0 1.4 1.7 2.70.1-0.71.7 1.8 2.0 4.6 4.8 4.4 3.7Peru4.03.93.6-2.010.41.04.53.04.00.92.12.62.4Uruguay2.0 1.0 1.0-0.4-0.5 1.0 1.5 2.5 1.0 7.3 8.0 8.0 7.8Venezuela-10.01.02.028250600000.Asia/Pacific4.84.54.53.64.54.64.74.83.72.01.92.02.1Japan0.8 0.90.6-2.51.62.11.0 2.5-3.5 0.6 0.9 0.6 0.2Australia2.82.12.71.10.72.52.52.53.02.11.81.51.9New Zealand2.8 2.6 2.6 1.2 2.2 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.4 1.5 1.9 1.4 1.4EM Asia6.05.65.65.35.55.45.85.55.5 2.32.22.42.6China6.6 6.3 6.1 6.0 6.1 6.7 6.3 5.9 5.9 1.8 2.2 2.6 2.6India7.17.27.46.86.75.16.87.57.74.82.62.93.8Ex China/India3.7 3.2 3.32.63.52.44.2 3.53.5 2.0 2.0 1.6 1.8 Hong Kong3.02.52.50.4-2.05.34.24.22.82.12.62.73.0 Indonesia5.2 4.9 4.9 4.9 5.4 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.8 3.3 3.2 3.0 2.8 Korea2.72.32.52.33.9-1.45.02.82.81.51.80.91.2 Malaysia4.7 4.3 4.1 6.0 5.2 4.4 4.1 4.0 4.0 1.3 0.3 1.3 1.8 Philippines6.25.76.15.97.33.96.06.66.64.85.92.81.5 Singapore3.11.72.20.8-0.83.82.02.01.5 0.3 0.5 1.4 1.6 Taiwan2.61.81.91.71.22.31.81.72.01.70.50.81.9 Thailand4.1 3.23.6-1.43.84.1 3.5 4.04.1 1.3 0.8 0.8 1.0Western Europe1.81