J.P. 摩根-全球-宏观策略-全球宏观数据观察-2019.3.15-100页.pdf

Economic ResearchMarch 15,2019 Global Data Watch Positive signs of bottoming in noisy global soft patch Fed to signal extended pause while BoJ sees no need to ease Expecting narrow passage of Mays Brexit plan next week Week ahead:Mixed flash March PMIs;FOMC;Norges Bank(+25bp)Weak links look less weak While clocks in the US“sprang ahead”this week,data watching continues to paint a picture of a noisy winter soft patch.However,not all is bleak.Although the data still point to global GDP expanding this quarter at the weakest pace since late 2015,we see hints of bottoming in the monthly trajectory as antici-pated supports fall into place,consistent with at least some acceleration in 2Q.The shift in the policy backdrop,which already has provided an important boost to confidence and financial market risk appetites,enhances prospects for this swing.As we process data,we are especially focused on hints of some firming in the weakest links of the global economy:Euro area waking from 2H18 hibernation.With GDP having expanded less than 1%annualized in 2H18,the Euro area has been the weakest link in terms of geography.We have attributed much of this weakness to transitory factors but have acquiesced to the notion that part of the disappointment owes to slower underlying growth.The good news is that transitory head-winds are finally reversing.The bounce in January IP(Figure 1),on the heels of the positive revision to the all-industry PMI and a big gain in retail sales,confirms a pickup is underway.Indeed,recoveries in the auto sector and in Germany,which have lagged,will soon reinforce the IP pickup.China finds its footing,and then some.The growth slowdown in China last year was a source of considerable angst to businesses and market participants,amplified by the escalation in trade tensions with the US.With the two sides now engaged in dtente and a sizable dose of fiscal,monetary,and credit stimu-lus in the pipeline,Chinas growth appears to have found a bottom.As reported this week,stronger-than-expected growth in factory output from December through February,along with surprising strength in infrastructure and real estate investment,led us to revise up current-quarter GDP growth to 6.2%arand even then there is arguably still upside risk(Figure 2).While nominal retail sales disappointed,our estimate of real spending is still quite strong while the forthcoming VAT cut(April 1)should support spending into midyear.9810010210410620162017201820191Q16=100(through Jan 19)Figure 1:Euro area IPSource:Eurostat,J.P.MorganGermanyEMUex Germany5.46.47.48.49.4261014111213141516171819%3m/3m,saar(0.4%m/m,sa for Mar 2019)Figure 2:China IP and real GDP%q/q,saar(1Q19 fcst:6.2%)Source:NBS,Seasonal adj.by J.P.MorganReal GDPIP ContentsGlobal profit cycle slows,margin pressures on the horizon16US:FOMC preview,and change in our Fed view19US:Upside risks to inflation forecast are fading21Japan:2019 labor cost pressure unlikely to lift inflation23ECB:New measures but with a disturbing message26Euro area:A min-max band for underlying inflation28Mexico:Fiscal policy challenges ahead31Global Economic Outlook Summary4Global Central Bank Watch6Nowcast of global growth7Selected recent research from J.P.Morgan Economics9The J.P.Morgan View:Markets10Data WatchesUnited States35Euro area43Japan47Canada51Mexico53Brazil55Argentina57Peru59United Kingdom61Scandinavia64Emerging Europe66South Africa&SSA70MENA72EMEA EM focus74Australia and New Zealand75China,Hong Kong,and Taiwan77Korea80ASEAN82India86Asia focus88Regional Data Calendars92Bruce Kasman(1-212)834-5515 JPMorgan Chase Bank NA David Hensley(1-212)834-5516 JPMorgan Chase Bank NA Joseph Lupton(1-212)834-5735 JPMorgan Chase Bank NA 2 Economic Research Global Data Watch March 15,2019 JPMorgan Chase Bank NA Bruce Kasman(1-212)834-5515 David Hensley(1-212)834-5516 Joseph Lupton(1-212)834-5735 Less worried about a decline in capex.Business capex is ground zero for the downward spasm in global industry around the turn of the year.For a number of weeks,we have been concerned that global capex may contract out-right in 1Q19 and the latest data still paint a grim picture.However,with more positive readings this week in January shipments data from the US and Germany,along with some better news on capital goods imports(albeit still weak),our global capex proxy now points to monthly gains in Decem-ber and January.To be sure,any enthusiasm is tempered by more forward-looking data.G-3 capital goods orders are trending down while our global capital goods new orders PMI remained stuck below 50 in February.Along with our cautious optimism that business capex is stalling instead of falling,we also continue to get upside sur-prises on consumer spending.This weeks retail sales reports from the US,China,Brazil,and the Czech Republic lifted our global tracking to near 4%ar sales volume growth in 1Q(i.e.,nominal sales adjusted for falling goods prices).Combined,our proxies for capex and retail sales point to a slight 0.7%ar firming in our global finished goods demand proxy in the three months through January.While soft,this is considerably better than the 1.8%ar contraction in global IP over the same period(Figure 3).The implied sizable step down in the pace of inventory accumulation adds to conviction that a turn back up in global industry is in the offing.Fed leads,ECB and BoJ shrug We believe the Fed is moving toward a policy framework that endorses an overshoot of its 2%inflation target.The official review of its strategy is set to move slowly as it takes stock of lessons learned at the upcoming June conference and deliber-ates though the end of this year.However,several FOMC members already have associated themselves with inflation averaging,and this message of tolerance for an overshoot will likely be sent at next weeks meeting.While the committee is set to forecast that the unemployment rate will remain below its estimate of NAIRU alongside a modest rise in core infla-tion,it probably will remove all but one rate hike from its median projection with no hikes in 2019.We have also adjusted our own policy rate projections and no longer see the Fed tightening this year.In large part,this change is a response to the Fed pivot.However,since late November of last year,we have lowered our 2019 core PCE inflation forecast from 2.3%to 1.8%(4Q/4Q).While half of this downshift owes to the removal of tariffs as trade tensions have eased,cost-push inflation(as implied by the Phillips curve)continues to be weaka fact seen in both the aggre-gate data and across local labor markets.With household in-flation expectations moderating,core inflations upward tra-jectory looks to have been arrested.In all,a Fed pause that extends well into 2020 looks likely even as we expect US GDP growth to remain above potential.As with the Fed,the ECB is responding to weaker prospects for both growth and inflation.However,the magnitude of the support it ultimately will provide is unclear because it has not yet announced the terms of the new TLTROs.Since the ECB meeting,market fear has grown that the terms of the new TLTROs may not be as generous,by the interest rate being set at a premium above the refi rate and with more stringent lend-ing targets.If true,it would underscore the ECBs concern about bank overreliance on cheap central bank funding.It also underscores the limitations of the ECB despite undershooting on inflation.Judging by comments by Chief Economist Praet,the ECB is now focused on the broad direction of travel in inflation,rather than calibrating a policy response to hit a nu-merical inflation objective.The ECBs willingness to tolerate low inflation as long as it is rising follows in the footsteps of the BoJ,which effectively shifted several years ago from trying to hit its inflation target to merely trying to keep inflation on a rising path.Even this latter objective is facing a significant challenge.Policymakers met this week against the backdrop of weak growth and with inflation far below target.Nonetheless,the BoJ left policy unchanged.While this was expected,the confidence Governor Kuroda expressed in his press conference was surprising and damps the likelihood that the BoJ will shift its forward guid-ance in a dovish direction at the April 25 meetinga view that had been building in the markets.Brexit:Strike three and youre still not out UK prime minister May was forced to ask for an Article 50 Brexit extension after Parliament once again voted down her proposed withdrawal agreement.PM May will make another attempt to secure passage of the deal next week.If successful,-202462016201720182019%3m,saarFigure 3:Global manufacturing output and final goods demandSource:J.P.MorganDemand proxy(retail sales,capex)Manufacturing 3 Economic Research Global Data Watch March 15,2019 JPMorgan Chase Bank NA Bruce Kasman(1-212)834-5515 David Hensley(1-212)834-5516 Joseph Lupton(1-212)834-5735 Brexit will only be delayed until end-June.If it fails,May will likely be forced to consider a significantly longer delay.Many MPs may consider it inappropriate for her to remain PM in those circumstances.The EU appears minded to push the UK toward a near two-year extension.In the event,the UK might reconsider the form of its exit or whether it should exit at all.Those who oppose the deal in the UK,preferring a more ag-gressive approach to discussions and“no deal”if necessary,will use a long extension to regroup.And they have a high likelihood of being able to install a new Conservative leader and demand a restart of the negotiations.In this regard,delay does not necessarily make Brexit“softer.”Norges Bank to buck the tide and hike While many central banks around the world have turned more dovish in response to disappointing growth and inflation data,the Norges Bank is set to tighten policy next week.Since the Bank signaled its intention to hike in March,domestic activity data have been firm and inflation has come in stronger than officials expected(Figure 4).However,the Norges Bank is sensitive to changes taking place in the rest of the world.There is a significant chance it will lower the policy rate path beyond this month due to lower market rates abroad.There is recent precedent for this:officials opted for a dovish hike in September,raising rates and lowering their rate path projec-tion at the same time.Turkish government refrains from stimulus The sudden stop of capital inflows and a plunge in sentiment led to an abrupt economic contraction in Turkey in 4Q18.Investment and private consumption collapsed,while export strength only cushioned the recession.As a result,GDP con-tracted 9.4%q/q,saar(3.0%oya)in 4Q.The latest data hint at some stabilization with the manufacturing PMI trending high-er(but still below 50)and business sentiment bottoming.However,given the fragility of corporate balance sheets and weaker prospects for capital inflows,we think the recovery will be very gradual.Weaker growth momentum and linger-ing uncertainty on the government policy framework after the elections have prompted us to revise down our 2019 GDP growth forecast to-0.9%y/y from 0.2%while we left the 2020 growth forecast unchanged at 3.5%.Hoping to keep the lira stable,the government has not reacted to the downturn in the economy ahead of the local elections on March 31.With the next parliamentary/presidential elections scheduled for June 2023,we think the government will continue to tolerate weaker growth and allow external rebalancing to proceed.Weve revised down our forecast for the 2019 CAD to 1.6%of GDP.COPOM on hold despite soft economy Next week brings Brazils first COPOM meeting with new governor Roberto Campos.We expect the central bank to maintain the Selic rate at 6.50%and the focus will be on the statements comments on the domestic economy and external risks.The most recent data point to downside risks to Brazili-an growth,particularly in 1Q,while inflation remains in check.However,lingering policy uncertainty regarding gov-ernment reforms and the global growth backdrop likely will preclude any easing in monetary policy.The Constitution and Justice Committee should vote on the social security reform by the end of the month.Also,BRL depreciated a bit since the last meeting,likely as a result of the domestic and foreign risks.On top of that,last Wednesday the new central bank governor reiterated that the COPOM has done a remarkable job in reinforcing its credibility,due to“caution,serenity,and perseverance in monetary policy decisions.”In our view,this statement affirms that the bar for a short-term change in the policy stance remains high.Editor:Gabriel de Kock(1-212)622-6718 01234121314151617181920Source:J.P.Morgan%oya.*CB preferred metric includes foodFigure 4:Core consumer pricesEuro areaNorway*4 Economic Research Global economic outlook sum-mary March 15,2019 JPMorgan Chase Bank NA David Hensley(1-212)834-5516 Carlton Strong(1-212)834-5612 Joseph Lupton(1-212)834-5735 Global economic outlook summary Real GDP Real GDP Consumer prices%over a year ago%over previous period,saar%over a year ago 2018 2019 2020 3Q184Q18 1Q192Q193Q194Q192Q18 4Q18 2Q194Q19United States 2.9 2.3 1.8 3.4 2.6 1.5 2.3 1.8 1.8 2.7 2.2 1.6 1.8Canada 1.81.51.72.00.4 1.01.82.22.32.32.0 2.02.0Latin America 1.2 1.7 2.4 1.4 0.3 1.93.12.62.4 3.5 4.0 3.93.4Argentina -2.6-1.22.5-2.7-6.8 3.02.52.01.0 27.147.3 51.932.6Brazil 1.1 2.1 2.5 2.2 0.5 1.8 3.4 3.2 2.8 3.3 4.1 4.23.4Chile 3.93.53.01.13.4 4.04.24.03.82.22.5 1.92.7Colombia 2.7 3.4 3.1 3.2 2.4 2.8 4.5 3.5 3.5 3.2 3.3 3.0 3.3Ecuador 1.1-0.2-0.83.6-2.5 1.0-1.5-2.0-1.0-0.80.3 0.80.7Mexico 2.0 1.5 1.7 2.4 1.0 0.8 2.0 1.8 2.0 4.6 4.8 4.33.7Peru 4.03.93.6-3.110.4 1.06.02.04.00.92.1 2.62.4Uruguay 2.1 1.9 1.9-0.1 0.5 2.0 3.0 4.0 1.0 7.3 7.4 7.8 7.2Venezuela -10.01.02.0 28250600000.Asia/Pacific 4.84.44.53.64.6 4.24.75.03.92.01.9 1.71.6Japan 0.8 0.3 0.7-2.4 1.9 -1.0 1.5 2.5-3.5 0.6 0.9 0.4 0.3Australia 2.82.12.71.10.7 2.62.42.53.02.11.8 1.62.0New Zealand 2.8 2.62.6 1.3 2.5 2.9 2.6 2.62.4 1.5 1.9 1.8 1.7EM Asia 6.05.65.75.35.6 5.65.65.95.82.32.2 2.01.9China 6.6 6.2 6.2 6.0 6.1 6.16.2 6.4 6.2 1.8 2.2 1.91.6India 7.37.27.46.86.7 6.97.17.57.74.82.6 2.93.8Ex China/India 3.7 3.3 3.5 2.8 3.7 3.6 3.3 3.6 3.6 2.0 2.0 1.6 1.8 Hong Kong 3.02.72.60.4-1.2 7.53.52.82.02.12.6 2.83.0 Indonesia 5.2 4.9 4.9 5.0 5.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.8 3.3 3.2 3.0 2.8 Korea 2.72.72.62.33.9 2.02.62.92.91.51.8 0.91.2 Malaysia 4.7 4.4 4.3 6.7 5.7 4.5 4.3 4.3 4.3 1.3 0.3 1.3 1.8 Philippines 6.26.05.96.16.4 6.16.15.76.14.85.9 3.32.1 Singapore 3.2 2.0 3.0 1.4 1.4 3.6 1.0 2.8 3.0 0.3 0.5 1.4 1.6 Taiwan 2.61.52.01.91.5 0.91.92.12.11.70.5 0.31.6 Thailand 4.1 3.3 3.8-1.3 3.3 4.1 3.5 4.5 4.5 1.3 0.8 0.8 1.0 Western Europe 1.81.41.70.91.0 1.61.51.61.81.92.0 1.61.4Euro area 1.8 1.4 1.7 0.6 0.9 1.8 1.5 1.5 1.8 1.7 1.9 1.4 1.2Germany 1.51.31.7-0.80.1 2.81.81.51.81.92.1 1.31.1France 1.5 1.2 1.7 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.3 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.2 1.2 1.1Italy 0.8-0.20.8-0.6-0.4-0.80.00.50.81.01.5 1.11.0Spain 2.5 2.3 1.9 2.2 2.8 2.3 2.3 2.0 2.