J.P. 摩根-全球-宏观策略-全球宏观数据观察-2019.1.4-88页.pdf

Economic ResearchJanuary 4,2019Global Data Watch Growth and inflation likely to moderate but recession is unlikely Policy is supportive and flexible while politics remains a wild card Asia trade reports suggest trade war is hurting China Next week:US CPI and FOMC minutes;US-China trade talksSweet Ps:Powell,payrolls,and PBOC We start the year reiterating the view expressed in our last publication:that 1H19 global growth and inflation look likely to decline more than our forecasts reflect.On growth,activity readings point to an above-trend global GDP gain last quarter.This point was underscored this week with a string of upbeat labor market reports and a global all-industry December PMI reading aligned with our forecast for a 2.9%annualized GDP gain.Our GDP nowcaster stands at 2.8%.However,the PMI details point to slowing ahead as new orders continue to slide and firms as-sessment of future output has dropped to its lowest level in its six-year history(Figure 1).With high-frequency readings on Asian trade softening and the busi-ness sentiment slide interacting with a tightening in global financial conditions,global growth looks likely to slow toward a trend pace.The moderation in growth should be accompanied by a step down in global inflation.Headline CPI rose 2.7%in the year ending in October,its fastest increase in six years.A good portion of this rise was due to higher energy prices,which are starting to unwind.Bottom-up country forecasts incorporate a deceleration in CPI inflation but our top-down model suggests we may be underestimating the declines taking hold in both global energy and food price inflation.Risks to our core inflation forecast are also skewed to the downside as we look for a material rise in 1H19 DM core inflation not yet evident in the data and only a partial unwind of last years EM core inflation spike.Absent significant upward pressure on energy prices,global inflation is likely to move to 2%oya during 1H19.Despite the likely downward momentum in growth,the pessimism currently reflected in global financial markets seems excessive.The global expansion still stands on firm ground and a recession is unlikely anytime soon.Policy-makers supportive and flexible stance is significant in this regard and was reinforced this week as China announced an earlier-than-expected RRR cut and Fed chair Powell delivered a more cautious assessment of global financial market developments.In stressing the benefits of risk management,he 48505254561113151719DI,saFigure 1:New orders PMI,globalSource:J.P.MorganManufacturingServices-80-60-40-200204060-3-2-101200 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18%oyaFigure 2:Global employment and profits%3m/12m,arSource:J.P.MorganCorporate profitsEmploymentContentsGlobal inflation slide is not only about oil16Japan:More fiscal support probably will be needed19Russian consumer:A disturbing lack of faith21Global Economic Outlook Summary4Global Central Bank Watch6Nowcast of global growth7Selected recent research from J.P.Morgan Economics9The J.P.Morgan View:Markets10Data WatchesUnited States25Euro area33Japan39Canada44Mexico46Brazil48Argentina50Chile and Peru52United Kingdom54Emerging Europe57MENA62Australia and New Zealand64China,Hong Kong,and Taiwan66Korea70ASEAN72India76Asia focus78Regional Data Calendars80Bruce Kasman(1-212)834-JPMorgan Chase Bank NADavid Hensley(1-212)834-JPMorgan Chase Bank NAJoseph Lupton(1-212)834-JPMorgan Chase Bank NA2Economic ResearchGlobal Data WatchJanuary 4,2019JPMorgan Chase Bank NABruce Kasman(1-212)834-David Hensley(1-212)834-Joseph Lupton(1-212)834-favorably described the dovish pivot the Fed took in early 2016,when worries about China were rising and risk markets were tense.We think Powells dovish message was unmistak-able,and we now look for only two hikes this year(July and December).The turn toward global fiscal easing is also im-portant and is unusual at this stage in the expansion.We be-lieve more fiscal support is set to be announced in China.Ja-pans government recently delivered a FY2019 budget that includes policy offsets to neutralize(temporarily)the impact of the October VAT hike.As was the case in 2014-15,a global disinflationary tilt is likely to generate an income rotation away from goods pro-ducers as the brunt of the shift is felt,at least initially,in the commodities and manufacturing sectors.At that time,profits and capex weakened but there was no overall retrenchment in labor markets(Figure 2).If we are right,the backdrop of two years of double-digit profit gains and continued access to bank credit will promote a similar dynamic.As such,sus-tained job growth,rising DM wage gains,and policy easing should prevent more damaging negative feedback loops from taking hold.Chinese officials respond to downside riskAs our forecasts adjust to a shifting landscape,geopolitics and policy uncertainty remain a key wild card.In addition to US-China trade and Brexit we now need to recognize the risks associated with the US government shutdown.A near-term resolution to this conflict would likely have little impact on current-quarter growth but a prolonged shutdown could be a significant factor,particularly if it raises broader concerns about a dysfunctional US political environment.The biggest geopolitical threat remains the US-China trade conflict.Sluggish China exports and sliding business confi-dence may reflect its toll on growth.Indeed,the recent evi-dence hints at further slowing from the 6%annualized GDP growth we estimate for 4Q18.The manufacturing PMIs were soft in December,especially their forward-looking orders and expectations components.At the same time,industrial profit growth resumed falling in year-ago terms.In response to these developments,Chinese policymakers have continued to take steps to support economic growth.China achieved a temporary truce with the US by agreeing to hold comprehensive talks on trade,with a US delegation due in Beijing next week.Also,officials have eased policy on multiple fronts.The PBOC took another step in this direction overnight,announcing a further 100bp cut in the RRR this month,somewhat earlier than we expected.This followed recent PBOC actions to increase the supply of credit to small and medium-sized businesses.On the fiscal side,the NPC recently authorized the State Council to allocate the quota for local government debt to support the recent pickup in infra-structure spending.We also expect a VAT cut to be an-nounced soon.The full set of December activity data due over the next two weeks will provide a clearer picture of the econ-omys momentum heading into 2019.New Year brings no cheer to EMAX exportsIn EM Asia ex.China(EMAX),exports look to have softened through year-end,with the risk that weakness spills over into early 2019.December trade reports from Korea and Vietnam point to a pronounced slowdown in global exports of high technology as well as overall shipments to China(Figure 3).The correction in Koreas tech sector now appears deeper than we had expected,following a mini-cycle upturn that had per-sisted until 3Q.Manufacturing PMI and export orders reports from Taiwan sent a similarly downbeat message.Taiwans PMI fell 0.7pt in December to 47.7,its lowest reading since a short recessionary period in late 2015,and the export orders component fell to just 44.6.Against this overall sluggish backdrop,regional supply-chain shuffles may be influencing trade flows as manufacturers seek to avoid higher US tariffs on China.In general,trade data highlight pronounced weak-ness in EMAX exports to China compared with elsewhere.Near-term downside risk to JapanAlthough a large rebound in Japan GDP growth to 3%annual-ized last quarter looks to have materialized,the latest survey data raise concerns about momentum at the turn of the year.Along with manufacturers projecting a drop in December out-put,this weeks PMI report of a sharp deceleration in new orders points to continued weakness in the current quarter(Figure 4).The latest trade report of slowing exports,espe-cially to China and the EU,echoes the soft tone of the year-end data.At the same time,the market sell-off and recent jump in the yen add to the downside risk to our call for GDP to decelerate this quarter but remain solid at 1.5%annualized.-15-10-505101520152016201720182019%3m/3m,saarFigure 3:Korea customs exports by destinationSource:MoTIE,KITA,and J.P.MorganChinaASEANUS3Economic ResearchGlobal Data WatchJanuary 4,2019JPMorgan Chase Bank NABruce Kasman(1-212)834-David Hensley(1-212)834-Joseph Lupton(1-212)834-In the face of near-term growth worries,policymakers are focused on offsetting the negative impact from the consump-tion tax hike scheduled for October.On December 21 the Cabinet approved the FY2019 budget,introducing a set of policies that would offset the near-term burden of the tax hike on households(including a reduction in the tax on food and initiatives for free education and childcare).The calm before the Brexit stormAfter a couple of quiet weeks,the Brexit storm is about to resume.The debate in Parliament on Prime Minister Mays withdrawal agreement is set to resume this Wednesday with the vote on the deal scheduled the following week.We con-tinue to expect the motion approving the withdrawal agree-ment to fail by a three-figure margin.Our best guess is that after losing the vote,PM May will stay calm and carry on.She will not resign nor will she lose a vote of no confidence submitted by the Labor opposition.PM May will look to the EU for some help and put the deal before Parliament again.Our central expectation is that she will secure a Parliamentary majority at a second or possibly even a third attempt.High inflation to keep CBRT on holdTurkish inflation delivered a downside surprise in December falling to 20.3%oya.Most likely this slide reflects the positive impact of the CBRTs prudent policy stance,weaker domestic demand,and government-introduced tax cuts.While signs that inflation is slowing are welcome,the pace is likely to remain close to its current level in the coming months.Alt-hough weak demand and administrative price cuts will put further downward pressure on inflation,a 25%minimum wage hike is likely to provide an offset.Thus barring political pressure in the run-up to the March local elections,we expect the CBRT remain on hold until June when we expect a 100bp ease.A more favorable external environment could create leeway for the CBRT to pull forward the first cut by a month or two.Latam administrations setting a better toneNew presidents in Brazil and Mexico are under the micro-scope and their initial actions have sent a positive signal to markets.In Brazil,steady steps toward much-needed reform are sup-porting the prospects of a long-awaited cyclical recovery.After being sworn in on January 1,Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro,along with Economy Minister Guedes,reiterat-ed campaign pledges to implement liberal market reforms.They may keep the momentum going with a series of yet-to-be unveiled measures to improve the business environ-ment and remove regulatory hurdles.However,we think the moment of truth will come in February,when Congress returns from recess and the government unveils its social security reform proposal.The timing of any approval will depend on whether the government sends a new bill or de-cides to base its proposal on that of former President Temer,which was already approved by the Commissions of the Lower House and is ready to be voted by the floor.The latter scenario would be welcomed as it would greatly speed up the process.In Mexico,the political situation is gradually improving and keeping us from further marking down an already sub-dued growth outlook.After roiling sentiment via the con-troversial decision to cancel the New Mexico City Airport,the new AMLO administration delivered a budget with a 1%primary surplus that seems to have allayed market con-cerns about a radical shift in economic policy.Based on reasonable growth assumptions and less spending than feared on social programs and infrastructure,the budget builds on the prior governments fiscal consolidation efforts(some caveats notwithstanding,such as ambitious tax col-lection targets and signs of a resurgence of the states role in the energy sector).With fiscal concerns pushed off for now,inflation expected to slow,and activity languishing,Banxicos tightening cycle is close to an end.We look for one more 25bp hike in May,as we expect inflation to pick up and as the Fed moves closer to its next rate hike.There-after rates should remain stable at 8.5%through year-end.This call assumes the implementation of the USMCA comes to fruition this year,even if risks are skewed toward a delay in the process until 2020.Editor:Gabriel de Kock(1-212)622-6718 48505254565820172018DI,saFigure 4:PMI manufacturing,JapanSource:MarkitNew export ordersNew ordersOutput4Economic ResearchGlobal economic outlook sum-maryJanuary 4,2019JPMorgan Chase Bank NADavid Hensley(1-212)834-Carlton Strong(1-212)834-Joseph Lupton(1-212)834-Global economic outlook summary Real GDPReal GDPConsumer prices%over a year ago%over previous period,saar%over a year ago2018201920203Q184Q181Q192Q193Q194Q192Q184Q182Q194Q19United States2.9 2.4 1.5 3.42.5 2.3 2.0 1.8 1.5 2.6 2.2 1.31.5Canada2.12.11.72.02.51.81.82.22.32.32.22.12.2Latin America1.2 1.8 2.2 1.8-0.42.13.43.02.4 3.5 4.1 4.0 3.8Argentina-2.7-1.52.6-2.7-10.0-0.16.04.03.027.147.349.328.5Brazil1.2 2.3 2.2 3.1 0.6 2.6 3.2 3.2 2.0 3.3 4.1 4.0 3.8Chile3.83.53.01.13.04.04.24.03.82.22.83.33.5Colombia2.7 3.1 3.1 0.9 3.0 2.8 4.5 3.5 3.5 3.2 3.3 3.2 3.5Ecuador0.2-0.7-0.83.60.8-1.50.0-2.0-1.0-0.80.00.30.5Mexico2.0 1.9 1.7 3.4 0.51.5 2.0 1.8 2.0 4.6 4.84.84.0Peru4.03.93.6-3.13.04.54.04.04.00.92.42.62.7Uruguay2.1 1.9 1.9-0.1 0.5 2.0 3.0 4.0 1.0 7.3 7.4 7.8 7.2Venezuela-10.01.02.028250600000.Asia/Pacific4.84.64.53.64.94.74.55.03.92.02.02.32.2Japan0.8 1.1 0.6-2.5 3.0 1.5 1.0 2.5-3.5 0.6 0.9 0.60.6Australia3.02.72.71.03.82.52.62.53.02.12.12.42.2New Zealand2.82.32.6 1.31.5 2.8 2.5 2.5 2.3 1.5 2.2 2.3 2.1EM Asia6.05.75.65.45.65.65.55.85.82.32.32.82.7China6.6 6.2 6.1 6.0 6.1 6.1 6.0 6.3 6.2 1.8 2.3 2.9 2.5India7.37.27.16.96.86.67.17.57.74.82.73.74.5Ex China/India3.7 3.5 3.5 2.9 3.4 3.8 3.5 3.7 3.8 2.1 2.01.92.1 Hong Kong3.32.72.60.42.04.03.53.33.12.12.62.83.0 Indonesia5.1 4.8 4.9 4.8 4.7 5.0 4.8 4.9 5.0 3.3 3.0 3.2 3.4 Korea2.62.72.62.32.42.82.82.92.91.51.81.51.5 Malaysia4.7 4.7 4.5 6.7 4.0 4.7 4.5 4.5 4.5 1.3 0.3 1.3 1.8 Philippines6.36.26.35.96.65.76.16.66.64.85.93.32.1 Singapore3.0 2.4 3.0 3.0 1.64.4 1.0 2.8 3.0 0.3 0.9 1.4 1.6 Taiwan2.72.12.11.52.71.92.12.22.21.70.50.61.8 Thailand4.2 3.8 3.8-0.1 4.5 4.4 3.5 4.5 4.5 1.3 1.1 1.2 1.3Western Europe1.81.81.90.91.72.12.02.02.01.82.01.41.3Euro area1.9 1.8 1.9 0.6 1.8 2.3 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.7 1.91.21.1Germany1.62.01.9-0.82.03.32.32.02.01.92.11.81.5France1.5 1.6 1.9 1.30.8 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.2 1.31.3Italy1.00.60.9-0.51.00.50.80.80.81.01.50.90.9Spain2.5 2.21.9 2.22.5 2.3 2.3 2.0 2.0 1.8 1.80.80.9Norway2.42.32.11.