J.P. 摩根-全球-宏观策略-2019年5月全球SSA展望-2019.5.24-45页.pdfVIP免费

GlobalSSAMay19outlook:scalebackOWsGlobalRatesStrategy24May2019AdityaChordiaAC(44-20)7134-2132aditya.x.chordia@jpmorgan.comJ.P.MorganSecuritiesplcJayBarry(1-212)834-4951hohn.f.barry@jpmorgan.comJ.P.MorganSecuritiesLLCACIndicatescertifyinganalyst.Seelastpageforanalystcertificationandimportantdisclosures.LukeChang(1-212)834-7562luke.chang@jpmorgan.comJ.P.MorganSecuritiesLLCAntoineGaveau(44-20)7134-2880antoine.gaveau@jpmorgan.comJ.P.MorganSecuritiesplcFrancisDiamond(44-20)7134-1504francis.diamond@jpmorgan.comJ.P.MorganSecuritiesplcGlobalSSAoutlook1Summary€-SSANeartermoutlook:turnneutralon€-suprasonlessfavourablePSPPdynamicsincomingmonths;atthesametimeweremainconstructiveonGermanandSpanishregionalbondsonstillattractivepick-upoversovereignbondsandongoingPSPPflows(slide3)NEWTradingtheme1:stayOWGermanregionalbondsvs.federalbonds;movelongsfrom10YNRWvs.Germanyto5Y(slide4)NEWTradingtheme2:Spanishregionalbondsat10-15bppickupoversovereignbondslookattractive;enterlong10YMadridvs.Spain(slide5)Tradingtheme3:stayOWshort-end€-SSAsvs.Franceonattractivevaluationsvialong5YKfWvs.France(slide6)Tradingtheme4:10s/30s€-SSAcreditcurveflattenersworksasaconvexrisk-ontrade(slide7)Tradingtheme5:closelong30YESMvs.Germany(slide8)QEflows:gross€-supraPSPPtobearound€1bn/monthfromJun-Sepvs.€2-3bn/monthforAprilandMayduetolackredemptions(slides14-15)Supply:almost60%ofourestimated2019€-den.€-SSAissuancetargetalreadycovered;lower10Y+vs.2018asexpected(slides16-17)$-SSA$-SSAspreadsoutlook:wedonotthinkcurrentvaluationsaresustainablewithspreadsatmulti-yeartights,andexpectspreadstowidenalongsideUSAgencyspreadsandtheEUR/USDcross-currencybasis(slide23-24)Tradingthemes:supplyseasonalssuggestissuanceshouldreboundover3Q,andrelativesupplydynamicsimplyWashingtonSSAdebtcouldunderperform.Stayunderweight3-yearWashingtonSSAdebtvs.USAgencies(slides25)Supply:$-SSAbellwethersupplyoverthefirst4monthsoftheyearhasrunatjust58%ofthepaceobservedinrecentyears.Welookfor$92bningrossissuanceofbenc...