J.P. 摩根-美股-银行业-美国中小型银行业：戏剧性的变化正在来临-2019.5.20-21页 (2).pdfVIP免费

NorthAmericaEquityResearch20May2019U.S.Mid-andSmall-CapBanksNYRentRegulationDeepDiveDramaticChangesAreComingButfromaBankRiskView,LoanGrowththeConcernOverCreditQualityU.S.MidandSmallCapBanksStevenAlexopoulos,CFAAC(1-212)622-6041steven.alexopoulos@jpmorgan.comBloombergJPMAALEXOPOULOSAlexLau(1-212)622-3428alex.lau@jpmorgan.comJanetLee(1-212)622-4803janet.s.lee@jpmorgan.comAnthonyElian,CFA(1-212)622-5067anthony.elian@jpmorgan.comJ.P.MorganSecuritiesLLCSeepage18foranalystcertificationandimportantdisclosures.J.P.Morgandoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.www.jpmorganmarkets.comWiththemostdramaticpotentialchangestorentregulationsindecadesnowlessthanamonthaway,sharesofSBNYandNYCBhaveeachcomeundersellingpressure.Tothisend,weareprovidingadeepdiveintotheproposednewregulationsaswellasthepotentialfinancialimpactstoeachbank.Atthecoreofthepotentialchangetoexistingregulations,therearecurrently9proposedpro-tenantbills,collectivelyreferredtoas“UniversalRentControl”,whichwillbevotedoninmid-June.WhilereplacingrentlawsapproximatelyeveryfouryearsisthenormforNYC,thisyear’supdatemayleadtomoreimpactfulchangesasthisyearmarkedonlythethirdtimeinhalfacenturythattheDemocratshavecontrolledtheNewYorkStateSenate,leadingtoDemocratsholdingatrifectainthestategovernment.WhilethefinalbillwilllikelynotbeasrestrictiveascurrentproposalsportendgiventhepotentialimpacttothelocalNYCeconomy,thepassageofmoretenantfriendlylawswillnegativelyimpactmultifamilybuildingvaluations.Whilethisisaclearnegativeforbuildingowners,weseeimpacttobanksasbeingmoreintheformofasignificantreductioninloanvolumesthanamaterialadverseimpactoncreditquality.Infact,withvacancyrateslikelytoremainverylowandbankstypicallylendingoncurrentcashflows(ratherthanprospectivecashflows),weseedefaultsintheNYCmultifamilysegme...