J.P. 摩根-美股-医疗保健行业-2019年秋季医疗设备与管理式医疗展望-2019.9-149页.pdfVIP免费

1NorthAmericaEquityResearchSeptember2019HealthcareFacilities&ManagedCareGaryTaylorAC212-622-6600gary.taylor@jpmorgan.comJ.P.MorganSecuritiesLLCHEALTHCAREFACILITIES&MANAGEDCARE2019FallOutlookDiversifiedHMOs|GovnHMOs|AcuteCare|Sub-Acute|Outpatient|OutsourcedServicesAnthonyMakdessi212-622-3682anthony.makdessi@jpmorgan.comJ.P.MorganSecuritiesLLCSeetheendpagesofthispresentationforanalystcertificationandimportantdisclosures,includingnon-USanalystdisclosures.J.P.Morgandoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.22019FallOutlook–KeyPointsSource:J.P.Morgan1)2Q19CostTrends/MLRConcernsareOverdoneWestillseesomeriskto3Q19consensusMLRsfromcalendarseasonality,evenifnowlargelydiscounted.OurpreliminaryAugusthospitalsurveyresultstodaysuggestfurthermoderationofAAtrendsvs2Q19.2)PoliticalRiskUnlikelytoMateriallyRecedebefore2020TheleadingDemsdisagreeonM4A,howcaniteverpass?Ontheotherhand,Biden’spollingisdeclining;Warrenisascending.3)RecessionRiskisNotFullyDiscounted–ButBeyondourPayGradeHCfacilities&managedcarestocksunderperforminrecessionsdespitedefensiveEPS.4)Early2020Outlook–MoreHeadwindsthanTailwindsTheHIFreturns,HIXmarginscompress,MDCDadverseselection,peakcommercialenrollment.5)Positioning&TopPicksWestillfavorMedicarefundamentalsandHUMasatoppick(AnalystFocusList).WealsofavorUNHfor2020whenMLRsentimentislikelytoimprove.We’dbefadinghighshort-intereststocksthatjustrallied25%intwoweeks.WecontinuetoquestionsustainabilityoftheCPAecosystemsupportingDVA’smargins.32019FallOutlook–KeyPointsSource:J.P.Morgan20192020YTDByYear-EndByYear-EndCommentsForwardFundamentalOutlookAverage/WeakerAverage/WeakerAverage/WeakerHIFreturnweighson2020guidance,recessionrisksin2020Concerns-Outlook(1)MLRConcernsHighMedium/HighMedium/Low2Q19missesarefullydiscounted,2020cosmetic...