J.P. 摩根-美股-石油服务与设备行业-2019年Q1美国石油服务与设备行业业绩预览-2019.4.15-65页.pdf

North America Equity Research15 April 2019Oil Services&Equipment1Q19 Earnings Preview Part I:Setups,Hurdles&Quick TakesOil Services and EquipmentSean C Meakim,CFA AC(1-212)622-Bloomberg JPMA MEAKIM Andrew P Herring,CFA(1-212)622-Aaron Rosenthal,CFA(1-212)622-J.P.Morgan Securities LLCSee page 63 for analyst certification and important disclosures.J.P.Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports.As a result,investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.With 1Q19 oil services earnings set to get underway a touch early this Thursdayas SLB reports prior to Good Friday,weve compiled a comprehensive guide for how wed be positioned into the first half of the groups prints,where we think buy side and sell side expectations deviate,and what potential catalysts were watching for on the calls.In our“early”installment,we provide previews for the 17 covered companies reporting results through most of April,with more in-depth summaries of our thoughts and estimates v.consensus in the interior.After a decidedly quiet 1Q,we are probably more optimistic about this set of prints as weve ever been since our May 2015 launch.And yet,Fridays negative preannouncement from NOV(-8%v.1%OSX)if anything reinforced the specter of“austerity”continues to penetrate deeper into the upstream supply chain.Though we expect sell side numbers will drift lower during 1Q preview and review season(including several of our own models),oils YTD rise(+41/33%WTI/Brent)supports the buy sides desire to buy“the last cut”.Though L-48 activity in 2H19 remains uncertain,those are questions to be sorted closer to midyear(perhaps at our June Energy Conference).Below we provide“one liners”on all 17 previews in this report,categorized by our expected market reaction to the prints and how wed respond.1Q19 One LinersPositive:SLB:1Q looks in line with preliminary$0.30-0.33 EPS guide but beat likely contained;2Q likely gets blessed but commentary around 2H19 visibility(and firmed international growth confidence)more incremental to outlook.Market is likely forgiving to further downward revisions to 2020 estimates as long as Brent stays above$70/bbl.HAL:After recent guide-downs,a“beat-and-meet”1Q/2Q19 should be enough for the shares to outperform,especially with WTI+$60.The quarter looks in line-to-better on stronger volumes and lighter margin,while 2Q still a transitional quarter given startup costs(JPMe 2Q$0.29 v.Street$0.28).A continued focus on capital discipline can also distinguish v.peers.FTI:Orders win the day as announced major awards set up(telegraphed)record quarter and macro outlook likely constructive;guidance likely unchanged but we think Street numbers are biased higher.Lingering“hair”around working capital,ASC842 impact and sequential Subsea margin progression wont go away,but management continues to make strides to streamline messaging.HP:Customer mix weighted toward large E&Ps and a fleet of in-demand super-spec rigs should buoy H&Ps FY2Q19 results despite a declining industry rig count;+$60 WTI could lead to HP raising the upper end of its upgrade guide,but we expect the company to offer a Goldilocks mix of FCF and incremental EBITDA.2North America Equity Research15 April 2019Sean C Meakim,CFA(1-212)622-Neutral:BHGE:1Q tracking expectations without the U.S.frac pricing headwinds of peers and LNG FID queue still constructive;potential downside to 2Q margin progression(JPMe 2Q+50bps q/q v.Street+90bps)but transitory drags make 2H19 outlook more important.Harder to envision how BHGE keeps the LNG momentum going near term.GE overhang likely caps near-term stock upside.RIG:A refreshed deepwater outlook and commentary on ORIG asset contracting strategy outweigh quarterly results;watch for an update on capital allocation surrounding ORIG assets,and available opex levers with fleet activity projected to rise in 2019.PTEN:With drilling activity and completions challenges well-telegraphed and a strong run in the shares YTD,we see little scope for an upside surprise and look for a print in line with Street estimates while 2H19 expectations deflate.ESV:Print takes a back seat to combined-fleet questioning and integration related topics;look an update on the drillship priority queue given minimal backlog attached to three high-spec RDC rigs(the fourth drillship remains warm-stacked),and the opportunity set for semis in APAC(particularly Australia).OII:1Q print mostly de-risked with margin stabilization expected to help offset the q/q top line decline,though further ROV margin degradation could happen if utilization fails to offset the expected pricing decline.Keep an eye on order flow within products and an update on FCF generation through the lens of working capital needs;we still expect 2019 falls towards the lower end of guidance.DRQ:Upside from potential incremental wellhead order likely already embedded given YTD share outperformance,but an elevated forward outlook order flow range above the typically guided$50-$70mm/quarter could reignite momentum with DRQ inching towards the top line bogey associated with more meaningful incrementals.We believe 1Q financial performance is largely de-risked,and do not expect material updates on Sea Lion or CRD.DO:The incremental color on capital allocation and drillship downtime likely de-risks the print with the q/q EBITDA decline embedded within consensus estimates;expect questions to focus on DOs drillships marketing strategy with legacy contract rolls beginning in 2020,in addition to potential growth strategies to increase fleet scale,and the wide dispersion in FY19 Street estimates.OIS:Stronger-than-expected completions activity is expected to de-risk our prior call for well site top line to fall below the guidance range,though we expect segment margin will print light.Look for an update on the 2H19 trajectory given E&P budgets no longer skew favorably to 2H19,and how the company plans to capture market share with its integrated gun offering as competition stiffens.SPN:1Q19 results will be weighed down by a well-telegraphed OC&WS activity decline,though we expect an in line print.International markets increasingly critical to SPNs results,and while 1Q is seasonally a tough FCF quarter,that remains the key priority considering the balance sheet and near term maturities.3North America Equity Research15 April 2019Sean C Meakim,CFA(1-212)622-Negative:NOV:We took a bearish stance into NOVs 1Q19 print with our preview last week,but more on longer-term negative revisions rather than risks to 1Q itself.While Fridays sizable miss to 1Q consensus officially de-risks the quarter,2020 revisions remain biased lower as industrys capital discipline slowly bites through supply chain.The admission of a need to cut costs further indicates an inflection is not around the corner.Focus will be on the outlook for Wellbore margin and CAPS orders,while messaging around balance sheet strategy likely status quo(buyback deferred,M&A contained to bolt-ons).CLB:1Q likely in line with prior guide but PE growth will be critical to assuaging concerns around energetics market share following BOOMs+27%q/q revenue pre-announcement;indications of offshore cores for RD also important.PD:While U.S.results look set to remain solid,we think consensus estimates may be overly optimistic(particularly in 2H19)as Canadian activity disappoints,making a downside surprise likely,in our view.FET:1Q print seemed mostly de-risked with the companys guided q/q drop-off attributable to completions softness that is captured within the relatively tight consensus EBITDA band;however,NOVs pre-announced 1Q completions weakness implicates FETs drilling and completion consumables in the context of perhaps a deeper-than-expected trough point and wed argue a flatter recovery.4North America Equity Research15 April 2019Sean C Meakim,CFA(1-212)622-Table of Contents1Q19 Earnings Calendar.5Diversifieds.6Schlumberger.6Halliburton.8Baker Hughes.11Capital Equipment.14TechnipFMC.14National Oilwell Varco.17Dril-Quip.20Oceaneering International.22Oil States International.24Forum Energy Technologies.26Smid-Cap Services.28Core Laboratories.28Superior Energy Services.30Land Drillers.32Helmerich&Payne.32Patterson-UTI.35Precision Drilling.37Offshore Drillers.39Transocean.39Ensco Rowan.41Diamond Offshore Drilling.435North America Equity Research15 April 2019Sean C Meakim,CFA(1-212)622-1Q19 Earnings CalendarTable 1:1Q19 Earnings CalendarSource:Bloomberg,company filings.Equity Ratings and Price TargetsMkt CapPriceRatingPrice TargetCompanyTicker($mn)CCYPriceCurPrevCurEnd DatePrevEnd DatePrecision DrillingPD CN810.36CAD3.67Nn/cn/cn/cPatterson-UTI EnergyPTEN US3,165.46USD15.20Nn/c12.00Dec-19n/cn/cSuperior Energy ServicesSPN US784.34USD5.03UWn/cn/cn/cNational Oilwell VarcoNOV US10,302.84USD26.87Nn/c24.00Dec-1928.00n/cOil States InternationalOIS US1,101.03USD18.20Nn/c16.00Dec-1917.00n/cEnscoESV US6,871.36USD15.76Nn/c5.00Dec-19n/cn/cSource:Company data,Bloomberg,J.P.Morgan estimates.n/c=no change.All prices as of 12 Apr 19.EARNINGS RELEASE-1Q19CONFERENCE CALL-1Q19COMPANYTICKERREPORT DATESTATUSREPORT TIME(ET)CALL DATECALL TIME(ET)DIAL-IN NUMBERPASSCODE/IDSchlumbergerSLB Apr-18Confirmed07:00 18-Apr08:30(800)288-8967HalliburtonHAL Apr-22Confirmed 22-Apr09:00(888)393-0263Superior Energy ServicesSPN Apr-23ConfirmedAft-mkt 24-Apr09:00888-317-6003Oil States InternationalOIS Apr-24EstimateEnsco RowanESV Apr-24EstimateCore LaboratoriesCLB Apr-24ConfirmedAft-mkt 25-Apr08:30Dril-QuipDRQ Apr-25EstimateHelmerich&PayneHP Apr-25ConfirmedBef-mkt 25-Apr11:00877-876-9173 HelmerichPatterson-UTIPTEN Apr-25ConfirmedBef-mkt 25-Apr10:00844 704-2496 3537997Precision DrillingPD Apr-25ConfirmedBef-mkt 25-Apr14:00844-515-9176National Oilwell VarcoNOV Apr-25ConfirmedAft-mkt 26-Apr11:00TechnipFMCFTI Apr-25ConfirmedAft-mkt 26-Apr08:00844 304 07759682798Forum Energy TechnologiesFET Apr-26ConfirmedBef-mkt 26-Apr10:00855-757-88768747933Diamond Offshore DrillingDO Apr-29Confirmed 29-Apr09:00844-492-60434057043Oceaneering InternationalOII Apr-29Confirmed 30-Apr11:00TransoceanRIG Apr-29ConfirmedAft-mkt 30-Apr09:00334-323-05222036923Baker HughesBHGE Apr-30ConfirmedBef-mkt 30-Apr09:30Nabors IndustriesNBR Apr-30ConfirmedAft-mkt 01-May11:00(888)317-60034127050Calfrac Well ServicesCFW May-01ConfirmedBef-mkt 01-May12:00(888)231-8191 Noble CorpNE May-01ConfirmedAft-mkt 02-May09:001-833-245-96537183887Cactus WellheadWHD May-01ConfirmedAft-mkt 02-May10:00(866)670-22032989706NOW IncDNOW May-02ConfirmedBef-mkt 02-May09:00800-446-1671MRC GlobalMRC May-02ConfirmedAft-mkt 03-May10:00412-902-0003Liberty Oilfield ServicesLBRT May-06EstimateNCS Multistage HoldingsNCSM May-06EstimateKeane GroupFRAC May-06ConfirmedAft-mkt 07-May08:30(877)407-9208ProPetroPUMP May-07EstimateTETRA TechnologiesTTI May-07EstimateFranks InternationalFI May-07EstimateSelect Energy ServicesWTTR May-07ConfirmedAft-mkt 08-May10:00201-389-0872WeatherfordWFT May-08Confirmed 08-May08:30877-328-5344WeatherfordTrican Well ServiceTCW May-09ConfirmedBef-mktNine Energy ServiceNINE May-13Estimate6North America Equity Research15 April 2019Sean C Meakim,CFA(1-212)622-DiversifiedsSchlumbergerSchedule Details.Release:Thu 4/17 BMO;Call:Thu 4/17 at 8:30am ET(800)288-8967/(612)333-4911Our Take:A quiet winter conference season was a respite from SLBs recent string of intra-quarter guide-downs,and a firmer 2H19 international outlook should cushion relative revisions v.more tempered NAM onshore in our estimate.1Q is likely down the middle of the companys preliminary$0.30-0.33 EPS guide(v.JPMe$0.31,Street$0.30)though anecdotes of deferred international spending and flat-lined U.S.frac pricing likely limit scope for a material beat.Still,the implied 6%q/q EBITDA improvement in 2Q looks reasonable given seasonal uplift(rev+4%,margin+30bps).While the market is likely already focused on SLBs visibility to 2H19 international opportunities and timing outlook for a return to+10%margin,$70 Brent can alleviate those concerns,at least in the near term.We see limited upside for SLB shares trading at a 4.5%div/FCF yield,but envision a more forgiving market on the print.2H19 visibility barbell:SLBs recently upped high-SD international capex forecast is considerably 2H-weighted,though we expect messaging on the call for+10%y/y Drilling growth and favorable long-lead indicators in CAM to help assuage investor discomfort around visibility.However,2H visibility in NAM onshore will likely be lacking(understandably),and we believe the company will emphasize its operating flexibility particularly in OneStim.Strategy update still pending amid CEO succession process:We suspect the new C-suite strategic plan is still in early development following Februarys appointmentof Olivier Le Peuch as COO(i.e.,CEO on deck).We are intrigued by potential initiatives to further“digitize”the oilfield given Le Peuchs“technologist”background and following the Sensia JV with ROK.However,we believe SLB is unlikely to address much in the way of material strategic pivots during the 1Q call,and expect incremental details during the summer/fall conference season(Kibsgaard and Le Peuch will both be in attendance at our JPM conference in June).Table 2:1Q19 Key Operating Metrics,JPMe v.ConsensusTable 3:2Q19 Key Operating Metrics,JPMe v.ConsensusTable 4:2019 Key Operating Metrics,JPMe v.ConsensusSource for all tables:Company reports and J.P.Morgan estimates.Note:$in millions except where noted.1Q19Operating Details1Q19eStreetv.JPMeStreetJPMeStreet1mDelta3mDeltaEPS(Adjusted,diluted)$0.31$0.304%-13%-16%-17%-21%($0.00)0%($0.05)-15%Adjusted EBITDA1,5631,5342%-5%-7%-4%-5%00%(82)-5%Total Revenue7,8517,7941%-4%-5%0%0%(7)0%(196)-2%EBITDA Margin19.9%19.7%20 bps-20bps-50bps-80bps-100bps0bps-50bpsEstimatesGrowth q/qGrowth y/yConsensus Revisions2Q19Operating Details2Q19eStreetv.JPMeStreetJPMeStreet1mDelta3mDeltaEPS(Adjusted,diluted)$0.36$0.351%15%14%-16%-17%$0.000%($0.06)-15%Adjusted EBITDA1,6441,6251%5%4%-5%-6%30%(112)-6%Total Revenue8,1368,1090%4%3%-2%-2%30%(269)-3%EBITDA Margin20.2%20.0%20 bps110bps90bps-190bps-210bps0bps-70bpsEstimatesGrowth q/qGrowth y/yConsensus Revisions2019Operating Details2019eStreetv.JPMeStreet1mDelta3mDeltaEPS(Adjusted,diluted)$1.60$1.591%-1%-2%($0.01)-1%($0.28)-15%Adjusted EBITDA6,8356,7921%0%0%(18)0%(507)-7%Total Revenue33,33333,2900%2%1%(60)0%(1,146)-3%EBITDA Margin20.5%20.4%10 bps-20bps-30bps0bps-80bpsEstimatesGrowth y/yConsensus Revisions7North America Equity Research15 April 2019Sean C Meakim,CFA(1-212)622-Table 5:Schlumberger Quarterly Earnings:JPMe v.Sequential/Annual CompsSource for all tables:Company reports and J.P.Morgan estimates.Note:$in millions except where noted.Revenue BreakdownMix1Q19e4Q18q/q1Q18y/yReservoir Characterization21%1,6341,651-1%1,5565%Production36%2,7922,936-5%2,959-6%Drilling31%2,4122,461-2%2,12613%Cam