J.P. 摩根-美股-汽车行业-美国汽车行业状况研究-2019.9-76页.pdf

1State of the Auto IndustryThoughts on GM-UAW Strike,Oil Price Spike,&Increased US-China Trade Tensions;Takeaways from 2019 J.P.Morgan Auto Conference;SAH Upgrade to NeutralUS Autos Equity Ryan Brinkman AC212-622-J.P.Morgan Securities LLCBloomberg JPMA BRINKMAN See the end pages of this presentation for analyst certification and important disclosures,including non-US analyst disclosures.J.P.Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports.As a result,investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.North America Equity ResearchSeptember 2019US Autos Equity Rajat Gupta AC212-622-J.P.Morgan Securities LLCBloomberg JPMA GUPTA 21Macro Update03Thoughts on UAW Strike at General Motors:Barring Unexpectedly Long Stoppage,the Contract Is Whats Key Not the Strike26Updated Thoughts on Tariffs:Ford(and to a lesser extent Tesla)Most Impacted by Step-up in US-China Trade Tensions;Incremental Supplier Impact Likely Less Material30Thoughts on Oil Price Spike:Historically There Has Been an At-Times Strong Visual Fit Between Auto Sales&Gas Prices,But Correlation Analysis Breaks Down;At This Stage,We Are Primarily Concerned About Lower Consumer Confidence 33Takeaways from 2019 J.P.Morgan Automotive Conference:China Expectations Now Reflect Reality;Industry Prepared in Event of US Downturn(But None Seen Imminent)35Sonic Automotive:Recent Upgrade to N from UW-Increased Comfort In EchoPark Profitability and Overall Management Execution69AgendaPage3Macro Update4Global Light Vehicle SAARSource:Bureau of Economic Analysis,Wards Auto,LMC Automotive and J.P.Morgan estimates.Italicized numbers are estimates.U.S.W.EuropeJapanDevelopedMarketChinaBrazilRussiaIndiaBRICMarketCanadaMexico2017Jan17.314.75.037.028.01.81.33.434.5111123Feb17.314.65.136.928.92.01.53.435.8123118Mar16.814.75.136.626.72.31.63.534.1187137Apr16.813.45.535.725.41.91.63.832.7197114May16.814.55.536.826.12.41.63.633.6216123Jun16.814.45.536.728.12.41.73.035.2203127Jul16.713.55.035.229.62.01.54.337.4182122Aug16.514.55.436.328.92.51.54.337.1183125Sep18.114.25.237.431.02.31.74.139.0186116Oct17.914.04.936.830.42.31.73.537.9164123Nov17.514.65.137.129.62.31.73.737.3158141Dec17.314.35.236.829.71.91.63.536.81241592017 Average17.214.35.236.628.52.21.63.736.02,0341,5292018Jan17.115.35.137.528.52.21.73.936.3117109Feb16.914.95.036.928.22.31.93.836.2125109Mar17.214.15.036.328.92.41.93.937.1187118Apr17.214.45.637.230.72.71.84.239.4191109May17.214.85.437.530.02.41.94.438.6215114Jun17.214.65.237.028.92.41.84.237.3200120Jul16.714.75.236.628.32.41.64.236.5177114Aug16.618.45.440.428.22.71.54.136.5181119Sep17.411.35.033.726.62.51.83.934.8173114Oct17.512.65.535.626.22.91.73.734.5161117Nov17.413.35.536.325.32.52.03.833.6144134Dec17.612.85.035.425.82.21.93.633.61151422018 Average17.214.35.336.728.02.51.84.036.21,9861,4202019Jan16.614.45.636.625.32.61.93.833.6109111Feb16.514.95.136.523.02.92.03.831.6122104Mar17.514.14.736.226.62.51.93.734.7183117April16.414.25.836.523.62.61.63.631.418198May17.314.45.537.323.92.81.83.532.0203102June17.314.25.036.527.22.71.83.535.2187106July16.814.35.236.427.12.61.53.034.2174106August17.016.95.839.725.32.61.52.431.91821082019 Average16.914.45.336.625.22.71.83.533.2168106SAAR(MM units)SAAR(MM units)Sales(000s units)5Global Light Vehicle SAAR(Y/Y%Change)Source:Bureau of Economic Analysis,Wards Auto,LMC Automotive and J.P.Morgan estimates.U.S.W.EuropeJapanDevelopedMarketChinaBrazilRussiaIndiaBRICMarketCanadaMexico2017Jan-2%5%6%2%9%0%-4%14%9%2%3%Feb-1%3%9%2%21%-8%-5%11%16%3%7%Mar0%3%12%3%1%4%7%13%3%7%17%Apr-4%1%10%0%1%-3%16%13%2%-2%-3%May-2%3%16%2%-2%17%21%12%1%11%1%Jun-1%3%17%3%5%16%21%-7%5%6%-5%Jul-6%1%6%-2%6%4%19%14%7%5%-7%Aug-4%4%6%1%-3%16%15%16%1%7%-7%Sep3%-2%3%1%0%26%18%9%3%8%-11%Oct1%5%-3%2%-2%29%17%-1%0%6%-10%Nov0%4%-4%1%-5%10%6%14%-2%-1%-8%Dec-4%-2%-5%-3%0%-1%9%7%1%-1%-18%FY2017-2%2%6%1%2%9%11%10%4%5%-5%2018Jan-1%5%1%1%2%22%26%15%5%6%-11%Feb-2%3%-1%0%-2%13%25%13%1%2%-7%Mar2%-4%-3%-1%8%4%19%11%9%0%-13%Apr2%8%2%4%21%46%13%10%20%-3%-5%May2%2%-1%2%15%0%22%21%15%-1%-7%Jun2%2%-7%1%3%1%8%39%6%-2%-6%Jul0%9%5%4%-5%17%11%-3%-3%-3%-6%Aug1%27%1%11%-2%11%5%-5%-2%-1%-5%Sep-4%-20%-3%-10%-14%7%5%-4%-11%-7%-2%Oct-2%-10%12%-3%-14%26%-2%6%-9%-2%-5%Nov-1%-8%9%-2%-15%12%19%2%-10%-9%-5%Dec1%-10%-4%-4%-13%14%19%3%-9%-7%-11%FY20180%0%1%0%-2%14%14%8%1%-2%-7%2019Jan-3%-6%9%-3%-11%15%13%-3%-8%-7%2%Feb-2%0%2%-1%-18%26%5%-2%-13%-3%-5%Mar1%0%-6%0%-8%5%-1%-5%-6%-2%-1%Apr-5%-1%4%-2%-23%-3%-11%-15%-20%-5%-10%May1%-3%2%-1%-20%19%-5%-21%-17%-6%-11%June1%-3%-3%-1%-6%13%0%-17%-6%-6%-11%July 1%-3%1%-1%-4%10%-7%-28%-6%-1%-8%August2%-8%7%-2%-10%-4%-1%-42%-13%1%-9%FY2019-1%1%1%0%-10%8%0%-11%-8%-5%-5%Sales SAAR SAAR 6BRIC Market SAAR TrendBrazil LV SAARSource:LMC Automotive,ANFAVEA.Source:LMC Automotive,SIAM.India LV SAARRussia LV SAARSource:LMC Automotive,AEB.China LV SAARSource:LMC Automotive.1.01.21.41.61.82.02.22.42.62.83.01.01.21.41.61.82.02.22.02.53.03.54.04.5 20.00 22.50 25.00 27.50 30.00 32.507North America Industry OutlookSource:Wards Automotive,R.L.Polk&Company.Source:University of Michigan,Bloomberg and J.P.Morgan analysis.US Light Vehicle Scrappage RateUS Average Light Vehicle AgeUmich Vehicle Buying Conditions IndexUMich Consumer Confidence IndexSource:University of Michigan,Bloomberg and J.P.Morgan analysis.Source:Wards Automotive;R.L.Polk&Company.8.08.59.09.510.010.511.011.512.08.08.59.09.510.010.511.011.512.0708090100110120130140150160170UMich Vehicle Buying Conditions Index5-Mo.Avg.5060708090100110Univ.of Mich.Sentiment Index5-Mo.Avg.8US Light Vehicle SAAR Retail/Fleet MixSource:JPM estimates based on Fords company reports.US Light Vehicle SAARSource:Bureau of Economic Analysis,Wards Auto,LMC Automotive,J.P.Morgan Estimates.4Q18 SAAR includes only July.US Light Vehicle SAAR Retail/Fleet MixUS LV SAAR and LV Sales DensitySource:University of Michigan,Bloomberg and J.P.Morgan analysis.0358101315182003691215180153045607590SAAR(L-Axis)LV Sales per 1,000 Persons(R-Axis)14.1 14.113.712.713.8 13.6 13.415.014.3 14.5 14.4 14.3 14.513.2 13.112.713.5 13.413.114.413.815.3 15.114.4 14.513.312.713.6 13.614.013.513.314.313.914.2 14.014.512.612.213.312.914.013.3 13.214.93.3 3.53.94.03.73.63.62.82.83.2 3.43.23.54.1 4.24.13.53.33.52.32.72.82.83.2 2.83.84.23.6 3.63.23.73.42.33.53.33.43.04.14.34.23.63.44.03.72.202468101214161820Retail SAARFleet SAAR9August and YTD Market Share TrendsYTD Change(bps)Source:Autodata.M/M Change(bps)Y/Y Change(bps)-196-12-8-5013142057145-300-200-1000100200300400FordVWBMWFCAToyotaNissanHyundai/KiaDaimlerHondaGM-108-40-25-14-7742606396-300-200-1000100200300FordHyundai/KiaVWDaimlerBMWToyotaHondaGMNissanFCA-44-24-16-13-8-6-492238-150-5050150NissanGMFordDaimlerFCABMWToyotaVWHondaHyundai/Kia10US Sales by SegmentLight Trucks Mix(%of US Light Vehicles)Source:Autodata.Source:Autodata.Pass.Cars Mix(%of US Light Vehicles)0%5%10%15%20%25%30%Middle CarsLarge CarsSmall CarsPremium/Luxury Cars0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%55%Middle PickupLarge PickupMinivan Sport-Utility/Crossover11US Dealer InventoriesSource:Autodata and J.P Morgan.Days Supply by OEM vs.10 Year AverageSource:Autodata and J.P Morgan.Inventories and Days Supply by OEM7881665752505141634669646446574239484942020406080100Reported Days Supply10-YR AVGAug-18May-19Jun-19Jul-19Aug-19Variance(19 vs.18)Inventory(000s)GM7937898098048052%Ford6026696646106112%FCA637586585541510-20%Total D32,0322,0452,0591,9561,925-5%Honda30942642338335214%Nissan278285265251236-15%Toyota444469492458441-1%Total J31,0311,1791,1801,0921,0290%BMW5754504953-7%Daimler44525049441%VW9912313013513941%European20022823023423718%Hyundai/Kia250216212205209-16%Total Industry3,7183,8813,9053,6963,581-4%Days SupplyGM9078848578-13%Ford75757979819%FCA8869748066-25%Total D38475798275-11%Honda56768168570%Nissan6756566352-22%Toyota5455635550-7%Total J35861666152-9%BMW5646374851-9%Daimler4945444441-16%VW475360616335%European494949535410%Hyundai/Kia6144454646-23%Total Industry6863676661-10%12US Dealer InventoriesSource:Autodata.Monthly LV Days Supply and 12 Month Rolling Average 020406080100120Days Supply12 mo.Average13US Retail IncentivesSource:Autodata.Monthly Light Vehicle Retail Promotion Costs$2,000$2,200$2,400$2,600$2,800$3,000$3,200$3,400$3,600$3,800$4,000JanFebMarAprMayjtnjtlAugSepOctNovDec2010201120122013201420152016201720182019JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecAvg.%Y/Y2009$2,691$2,993$3,116$2,928$2,873$2,828$2,737$2,548$2,743$2,658$2,694$2,633$2,776-0.6%2010$2,545$2,723$2,804$2,702$2,829$2,873$2,852$2,778$2,743$2,556$2,551$2,645$2,718-2.1%2011$2,579$2,578$2,484$2,320$2,303$2,403$2,587$2,615$2,653$2,452$2,605$2,675$2,520-7.3%2012$2,435$2,487$2,547$2,428$2,545$2,548$2,482$2,478$2,405$2,301$2,497$2,570$2,484-1.4%2013$2,345$2,502$2,573$2,533$2,664$2,697$2,550$2,511$2,478$2,574$2,667$2,739$2,5763.7%2014$2,550$2,702$2,725$2,587$2,673$2,749$2,883$3,004$2,974$2,721$2,892$2,950$2,7918.4%2015$2,588$2,682$2,726$2,671$2,842$2,877$3,073$3,102$3,144$3,108$3,083$3,073$2,9234.7%2016$2,992$3,035$3,110$3,052$3,151$3,237$3,410$3,378$3,690$3,533$3,741$3,766$3,34814.5%2017$3,475$3,594$3,563$3,452$3,509$3,616$3,640$3,736$3,889$3,724$3,811$3,980$3,6729.7%2018$3,740$3,695$3,794$3,646$3,740$3,785$3,776$3,771$3,794$3,602$3,718$3,807$3,7391.8%2019$3,506$3,573$3,641$3,408$3,733$3,826$3,911$3,962#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/Avs.prior mo.-7.9%1.9%1.9%-6.4%9.5%2.5%2.2%1.3%vs.prior yr.-6.3%-3.3%-4.0%-6.5%-0.2%1.1%3.6%5.1%14US Retail Incentives%Change in August m/mSource:Autodata.%Change in August y/y%YTD10%7%4%1%1%0%0%0%0%-2%-3%-4%-25%-15%-5%5%15%25%HondaNissanToyotaFordIndustryVWKiaMercBMWGMFCAHyundai21.7%9.4%8.4%6.6%6.4%5.1%3.0%2.2%-0.8%-10.9%-11.6%-12.2%-40.0%-30.0%-20.0%-10.0%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%HondaGMToyotaNissanFCAIndustryFordBMWVWKiaHyundaiMerc20%1%1%0%-1%-1%-1%-3%-5%-5%-10%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%HondaNissanToyotaFordBMWIndustryMercVWGMHyundaiKia15It is true that retail incentives have tracked notably higher over the past three years,with an inflection in 2015 and 2016.Incentives averaged+3.7%y/y in 2013,+8.4%in 2014,+4.7%in 2015,+14.5%in 2016,+9.7%y/y in 2017 and+2.0%y/y in 2018.US Retail Incentives (+5.1%in August vs.+3.6%in July vs.+1.1%in June vs.-0.2%y/y in May and vs.2018s+2.0%y/y)Source:Autodata.Monthly Light Vehicle Retail Promotion Costs(per vehicle)$-$500$1,000$1,500$2,000$2,500$3,000$3,500$4,000$4,500Incentives12 mo.Average16An examination of“price/mix”rather than“price at a given mix”paints a different picture.Stronger“inter-series”mix(higher ASP CUVs,SUVs,and pickup trucks),and stronger“intra-series”mix,is proving more powerful than softer price for particular models.It is hard for us to describe pricing as anything other than strong when ATPs stand at record highs.US Retail Average Transaction Prices (+2.1%in August vs.+3.4%y/y in July)Source:TrueCar.Monthly Light Vehicle Average Transaction Prices$27,000$28,000$29,000$30,000$31,000$32,000$33,000$34,000$35,000$36,000Average Transaction Price(ATP)12 mo.Average17Key Commodities in a VehicleSource:Bloomberg,Datastream,W and J.P.Morgan estimates.*Commodities we track represent approximately 87%of the total raw material by weight in a light vehicle.1 Hot rolled steel and Cold rolled steel prices from Bloomberg2 Aluminium,Lead and Copper Cash(Spot)market prices from LME 3 Stainless Steel Asia 2mm CR Coil from MBSTCHSC Index4 Natural Rubber RSS3(Pre Jan-09);TSR20,Singapore Commodity Exchange(Jan 09-Dec 2011),Bloomberg(Jan 2011-Present)5 Synthetic rubber price from CMAI(SBR 1500)6 Polypropylene NA Domestic Market(Contract)GP-Homopolymer from CMAIWeighted Commodity Index Y/Y Changevs.Yr AgoJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecAvgAvgHot Rolled Steel 1(US dollars/short ton)2017630 638 655 658 629 599 619 635 633 614 633 650 633 18%2018690 750 861 896 915 916 930 908 878 857 835 768 850 34%2019709 720 733 722 636 566 570 611 vs.prior mo.-8%2%2%-1%-12%-11%1%7%Cold Rolled Steel 1(US dollars/short ton)2017846 858 868 868 836 798 819 838 834 812 813 833 835 15%2018881 923 965 1,017 1,015 1,015 1,015 1,004 983 977 955 889 970 16%2019819 830 843 840 765 763 742 789 vs.prior mo.-8%1%2%0%-9%0%-3%6%Aluminum 2(US dollars/Metric ton)20171,590 1,636 1,695 1,697 1,645 1,626 1,627 1,815 1,775 1,915 1,870 1,806 1,725 11%20181,870 1,861 1,805 1,920 1,850 1,724 1,770 1,595 1,404 1,344 1,380 1,383 1,659 -4%20191,455 1,462 1,431 1,350 1,310 1,216 1,305 1,147 vs.prior mo.5%0%-2%-6%-3%-7%7%-12%Stainless Steel 3(US dollars/short ton)20172,324 2,304 2,293 2,126 2,137 2,197 2,223 2,228 2,345 2,407 2,393 2,518 2,291 23%20182,702 2,675 2,815 2,754 2,551 2,472 2,572 2,528 2,363 2,198 2,064 2,038 2,477 8%20192,030 2,238 2,260 2,269 2,123 2,107 2,049 2,201 vs.prior mo.0%10%1%0%-6%-1%-3%7%Natural Rubber Price 4(US cents/pound)2017109 94 84 74 66 72 69 73 67 66 68 65 76 18%201868 68 63 65 68 62 60 62 61 56 56 59 62 -17%201961 69 65 68 67 66 62 60 vs.prior mo.3%13%-6%5%-1%-1%-6%-4%Synthetic Rubber Price 5(US dollars/Metric ton)20171,340 1,716 2,022 1,808 1,455 1,409 1,210 1,149 1,180 1,302 1,226 1,180 1,416 39%20181,210 1,256 1,409 1,455 1,502 1,563 1,532 1,532 1,547 1,532 1,533 1,256 1,444 2%20191,241 1,226 1,226 1,226 1,226 1,180 1,149 1,118 1,118 1,103 vs.prior mo.-1%-1%0%0%0%-4%-3%-3%0%-1%Polypropylene 6(Cents/Pound)201763 69 72 64 58 58 59 61 67 69 69 71 65 7%201877 73 75 76 81 76 75 76 75 73 66 58 73 13%201956 54 52 52 55 52 53 53 vs.prior mo.-3%-3%-5%0%7%-6%1%0%Copper 2(US dollars/Metric ton)20175,994 5,967 5,816 5,711 5,658 5,927 6,336 6,760 6,432 6,839 6,735 7,207 6,282 27%20187,079 6,895 6,679 6,770 6,845 6,625 6,279 5,968 6,264 6,037 6,227 5,949 6,468 3%20196,151 6,556 6,487 6,403 5,806 5,982 5,902 5,656 vs.prior mo.3%7%-1%-1%-9%3%-1%-4%Lead 2(US dollars/Metric ton)20172,371 2,254 2,331 2,284 2,099 2,273 2,308 2,368 2,492 2,398 2,471 2,485 2,344 24%20182,621 2,496 2,395 2,321 2,446 2,405 2,141 2,058 2,023 1,902 1,961 2,007 2,231 -5%20192,100 2,145 2,002 1,959 1,795 1,917 1,999 2,013 vs.prior mo.5%2%-7%-2%-8%7%4%1%Weighted Commodity Index*(US dollars/Metric ton)20171,653 1,681 1,706 1,687 1,594 1,553 1,581 1,641 1,653 1,677 1,762 1,795 1,665 18%20181,886 1,932 2,055 2,123 2,145 2,099 2,105 2,049 1,984 1,924 1,878 1,754 1,995 20%20191,690 1,727 1,721 1,699 1,578 1,487 1,493 1,520 vs.prior mo.-4%2%0%-1%-7%-6%0%2%-6%-1%-26%5%17%15%-19%-30%-15%0%15%30%201320142015201620172018201918US Used Car PricesManheim Index(January 1995=100)Source:Manheim Consulting.National Auto Dealers Association(NADA)(January 2010=100)Source:National Auto Dealers Association(NADA).-25.0%-20.0%-15.0%-10.0%-5.0%0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%8090100110120130140150Manheim Index(L-axis)y/y%change(R-axis)-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%8090100110120130NADA Index(L-axis)y/y%change(R-axis)19Western Europe SAARSource:LMC Automotive,ACEA and J.P.Morgan estimates.Western EuropeGermanyFranceUKItalySpainOther Western Europe2016Jan13.93.42.02.71.91.12.8Feb14.13.52.02.71.91.12.8Mar14.33.42.12.91.91.12.9Apr13.23.22.02.41.