J.P. 摩根-美股-互联网服务业-专有调查显示社交媒体活跃且良好-2019.1.7-23页.pdf

North America Equity Research07 January 2019 Proprietary Survey Suggests Social Media Alive and WellFB&TWTR Among Top Picks for 2019;Key Takes and Charts HereinInternetDoug Anmuth AC(1-212)622-Bloomberg JPMA ANMUTH J.P.Morgan Securities LLCDylan Haber(1-212)622-J.P.Morgan Securities LLCCory A Carpenter(1-212)270-J.P.Morgan Securities LLCDae K Lee,CFA(1-212)622-J.P.Morgan Securities LLCNeeraj S Kookada,CFA(1-212)622-J.P.Morgan India Private LimitedSee page 19 for analyst certification and important disclosures,including non-US analyst disclosures.J.P.Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports.As a result,investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.Investors should consider this report as only a single factor inmaking their investment In this note we provide detailed results and key takeaways from our proprietary social media user survey conducted in December 2018 among 1,065 US Internet users.Overall results suggest social media usage remains strong and steady,with respondents indicating virtually equal increased and decreased usage over the past year,&also as expected in the future.Not surprisingly,survey results suggest some usage shift from Facebook to other platforms,including Instagram.But importantly,respondents anticipate a higher degree of stability in their social media usage going forward and the overall perception of social media continues to skew positively.Key takeaways:1)Facebook remains the most used platform,utilized by 88%of respondents,followed by Facebook Messenger(61%),Instagram(47%),Twitter(32%),Snapchat(24%),&WhatsApp(15%);2)Time spent on social media over the last year remained the same for 43%of respondents,increased for 29%,&decreased for 28%.Responses on future usage suggest more stability,w/56%of respondents expecting their social media time to be flat,23%expecting an increase,&22%expecting a decrease;3)Overall perception of social media skews positive,w/37%of respondents viewing it as having a positive impact on life,40%at neutral,&24%indicating negative impact;4)Facebook overwhelmingly viewed as the most important social media platform(56%),followed by Instagram(11%),Facebook Messenger(10%),Twitter(6%),WhatsApp(5%),&Snapchat(4%);&5)Instagram users are the most satisfied with the platform at 62%,followed by Snapchat(60%),Facebook(51%),&Twitter(49%).Facebook:1)Remains the strongest platform w/88%of respondents using it&56%calling it their most important social media platform;2)FB users remain highly engaged w/56%of respondents spending more than 15 minutes daily on the platform,including 34%at more than 30 minutes daily;3)However,FB usage decreases outweigh increases in both past&future.In the past 12 months 27%increased their FB usage&32%decreased,w/18%increasing&27%decreasing going forward.Instagram:1)IG users show the highest satisfaction levels(62%)&biggest increase in usage over the past year(44%);2)49%of IG users indicate they use IG Stories,significantly higher than the 18%of FB users using FB Stories;3)IG time spent is below that of FB w/38%of IG users spending more than 15 minutes daily on the platform,including 20%at more than 30 minutes daily.Twitter:1)32%of respondents use Twitter,of which 38%increased usage in the last 12 months,35%held steady,&27%decreased;2)31%of Twitter users spend at least 15 minutes/day on the platform,not surprisingly lower than FB(56%),Snapchat(39%),&IG(38%).We continue to view TWTR more as news&information than social media.Snapchat:1)While only 24%of respondents use Snapchat,engagement of those users is solid.40%increased their usage in the last 12 months&27%expected it to increase in the future.Snaps satisfaction level at 60%was nearly as high as IGs 62%;2)81%of Snapchat users regularly use the Messaging/Chat feature,with adoption of Stories(64%)&Camera(60%)not far behind,butDiscover lags at 30%.2North America Equity Research07 January 2019Doug Anmuth(1-212)622- Table of ContentsOverall Usage.3Facebook.6Instagram.9Twitter.12Snapchat.15FiguresFigure 1:Which of the following online platforms do you use?.3Figure 2:How has your time spent on social media changed over the past 12 months?.4Figure 3:How do you expect your usage of social media to trend in the future?.4Figure 4:What social media do you view as most important to you?.5Figure 5:Do you believe social media has a positive,neutral,or negative impact on your life?.5Figure 6:How has your usage of Facebook changed over the past 12 months?.6Figure 7:Have you used any of the following Facebook features?(Select all that apply).6Figure 8:How many times do you check Facebook on an average day?.7Figure 9:How much time do you spend on Facebook on an average day?.8Figure 10:How satisfied are you with Facebook overall?.8Figure 11:How do you expect your usage of Facebook to trend in the future?.9Figure 12:How has your usage of Instagram changed over the past 12 months?.9Figure 13:Have you used any of the following Instagram features?(Select all that apply).9Figure 14:Which of the following features do you use regularly?.10Figure 15:How many times do you check Instagram on an average day?.11Figure 16:How much time do you spend on Instagram on an average day.11Figure 17:How satisfied are you with Instagram overall?.11Figure 18:How do you expect your usage of Instagram to trend in the future?.12Figure 19:How has your usage of Twitter changed over the past 12 months?.13Figure 20:How many times do you check Twitter on an average day?.13Figure 21:How much time do you spend on Twitter on an average day?.14Figure 22:How satisfied are you with Twitter overall?.14Figure 23:How do you expect your usage of Twitter to trend in the future?.15Figure 24:How has your usage of Snapchat changed over the past 12 months?.15Figure 25:Which of the following features do you use regularly?.15Figure 26:How many times do you check Snapchat on an average day?.16Figure 27:How much time do you spend on Snapchat on an average day?.16Figure 28:How satisfied are you with Snapchat overall?.17Figure 29:How do you expect your usage of Snapchat to trend in the future?.173North America Equity Research07 January 2019Doug Anmuth(1-212)622- MethodologyWe conducted our U.S.Social Media Survey through Survey Monkey in December 2018.We received 1,065 completed responses from U.S.users in total.The number of relevant results varied by question depending on whether the respondent was a user on a particular platform or not.If a respondent indicated that they had never used a particular platform,we would not ask them specific questions about that platform.Overall UsageFigure 1:Which of the following online platforms do you use?%of respondentsSource:J.P.Morgan Proprietary Social Media Survey Distributed by Survey Monkey on Dec 21,2018;n=1,065Key Take:Unsurprisingly,Facebook remains the most used platform with 88%of respondents,followed by Facebook Messenger(61%)and Instagram(47%).88%47%32%24%15%61%7%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%FacebookInstagramTwitterSnapchatWhatsAppFacebookMessengerOther(pleasespecify)4North America Equity Research07 January 2019Doug Anmuth(1-212)622- Figure 2:How has your time spent on social media changed over the past 12 months?%of respondentsSource:J.P.Morgan Proprietary Social Media Survey Distributed by Survey Monkey on Dec 21,2018;n=1,065Key Take:Though very close,slightly more respondents indicated that they had increased their usage of social media(29%)over the past year than those who had decreased usage(28%),while 43%indicated their usage stayed the same.Figure 3:How do you expect your usage of social media to trend in the future?%of respondentsSource:J.P.Morgan Proprietary Social Media Survey Distributed by Survey Monkey on Dec 21,2018;n=1,065Key Take:Similarly,slightly more respondents indicated that they would increase their usage of social media(23%)in the future than those who indicated they would decrease it(22%).56%plan to keep their usage at the same levels.12%17%43%17%11%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%SignificantlyIncreasedSlightly Increased Stayed the sameSlightlyDecreasedSignificantlyDecreased7%15%56%11%10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%SignificantlyIncreaseSlightly IncreaseStay the sameSlightly DecreaseSignificantlyDecrease5North America Equity Research07 January 2019Doug Anmuth(1-212)622- Figure 4:What social media platform do you view as most important to you?%of respondentsSource:J.P.Morgan Proprietary Social Media Survey Distributed by Survey Monkey on Dec 21,2018;n=1,065Key Take:Facebook is the most important social media platform for more thanhalf of the respondents(56%).Factoring in Instagram and FB Messenger,Facebook owned 77%of the assets that users found most important to them.Figure 5:Do you believe social media has a positive,neutral,or negative impact on your life?%of respondentsSource:J.P.Morgan Proprietary Social Media Survey Distributed by Survey Monkey on Dec 21,2018;n=1,065Key Take:Despite recent headlines and sentiment,more users view social media as having a positive impact on their life(36%),than those who thought it negatively impacted them(24%).56%11%6%4%5%10%8%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%FacebookInstagramTwitterSnapchatWhatsAppFacebookMessengerOther(pleasespecify)9%28%40%19%5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%Very positiveSlightly PositiveNeutralSlightly NegativeVery negative6North America Equity Research07 January 2019Doug Anmuth(1-212)622- FacebookFigure 6:How has your usage of Facebook changed over the past 12 months?%of respondentsSource:J.P.Morgan Proprietary Social Media Survey Distributed by Survey Monkey on Dec 21,2018;n=939Key Take:More users decreased usage(32%)than increased usage of Facebook(27%)over the past year,though most remained unchanged(41%).Figure 7:Have you used any of the following Facebook features?(Select all that apply)%of respondentsSource:J.P.Morgan Proprietary Social Media Survey Distributed by Survey Monkey on Dec 21,2018;n=939Key Takes:Groups remains valuable functionality within FB(49%),though Stories(18%)and Watch(8%)are still working to gain traction.We were surprised to see Marketplace used by 36%of respondents.7%20%41%18%14%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%SignificantlyIncreasedSlightly Increased Stayed the sameSlightlyDecreasedSignificantlyDecreased49%18%8%36%34%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%FacebookGroupsFacebookStoriesFacebook WatchFacebookMarketplaceNone of theabove7North America Equity Research07 January 2019Doug Anmuth(1-212)622- Figure 8:How many times do you check Facebook on an average day?%of respondentsSource:J.P.Morgan Proprietary Social Media Survey Distributed by Survey Monkey on Dec 21,2018;n=939Key Take:The majority of users(64%)check Facebook 3x or less a day.Using a weighted average methodology,we get to the average Facebook user checking roughly 5.1x a day.Note,we do this by applying a value of 2 visits for those who check 1-3x,a value of 7 for those who check 4-10 x,a value of 15 for those who check more than 10 x,and a value of 25 for those who check more than 20 x.While not precise,we will use this methodology below on other services to compare average number of visits by user.8%56%23%9%4%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%Never1-3 times4-10 timesMore than 10timesMore than 20times8North America Equity Research07 January 2019Doug Anmuth(1-212)622- Figure 9:How much time do you spend on Facebook on an average day?%of respondentsSource:J.P.Morgan Proprietary Social Media Survey Distributed by Survey Monkey on Dec 21,2018;n=939Key Take:The majority of users(57%)use Facebook for more than 15 minutes a day,while only 21%use it for 5 minutes or less.Using a weighted average methodology for this as well,we get to the average Facebook user spending roughly 30 minutes a day.Note,we do this by applying a value of 2.5 minutes for those who spend 5 minutes or less on Facebook,a value of 10 for those who spend 5-15 minutes,a value of 22.5 for those who spend 15-30 minutes,a value of 45 for those who spend 30-60 minutes and a value of 90 for those who spend more than an hour.Again,wed note that this methodology isnt exact,but useful for comparison purposes.Figure 10:How satisfied are you with Facebook overall?%of respondentsSource:J.P.Morgan Proprietary Social Media Survey Distributed by Survey Monkey on Dec 21,2018;n=939Key Take:Contrary to media headlines&current sentiment,more users are satisfied with Facebook(51%)than those who are unsatisfied(21%).6%15%22%22%20%14%0%5%10%15%20%25%None5 minutes orless5-15 minutes 15-30 minutes 30-60 minutes More than anhour16%35%28%13%8%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%Very satisfiedModeratelysatisfiedNeither satisfiednor unsatisfiedModeratelyunsatisfiedVery unsatisfied9North America Equity Research07 January 2019Doug Anmuth(1-212)622- Figure 11:How do you expect your usage of Facebook to trend in the future?%of respondentsSource:J.P.Morgan Proprietary Social Media Survey Distributed by Survey Monkey on Dec 21,2018;n=939Key Take:More users plan to decrease usage of FB(28%)than those who plan to increase usage(19%),though most users plan to keep usage the same(54%).InstagramFigure 12:How has your usage of Instagram changed over the past 12 months?%of respondentsSource:J.P.Morgan Proprietary Social Media Survey Distributed by Survey Monkey on Dec 21,2018;n=504Key Take:More users increased usage of Instagram(44%)over the past year,than those whose usage remained unchanged(34%)and those who had decreased usage(22%).5%13%54%19%9%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%SignificantlyincreaseSlightly increaseStay the sameSlightly decreaseSignificantlydecrease16%28%34%13%10%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%SignificantlyIncreasedSlightly Increased Stayed the sameSlightlyDecreasedSignificantlyDecreased10North America Equity Research07 January 2019Doug Anmuth(1-212)622- Figure 13:Have you used any of the following Instagram features?(Select all that apply)%of respondentsSource:J.P.Morgan Proprietary Social Media Survey Distributed by Survey Monkey on Dec 21,2018;n=504Key Take:Almost half of IG users use Stories and DM,though only 10%have tried IGTV.Figure 14:Which of the following features do you use regularly?%of respondentsSource:J.P.Morgan Proprietary Social Media Survey Distributed by Survey Monkey on Dec 21,2018;n=504Key Take:Stories is used regularly by 40%of users,vs.only 1%for IGTV.49%10%47%30%34%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%InstagramStoriesInstagram TV(IGTV)Instagram DirectMessaging(DM)InstagramExplore TabNone of theabove80%40%27%14%1%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%Instagram FeedInstagramStoriesInstagram DirectMessaging(DM)InstagramExplore TabInstagram TV11North America Equity Research07 January 2019Doug Anmuth(1-212)622- Figure 15:How many times do you check Instagram on an average day?%of respondentsSource:J.P.Morgan Proprietary Social Media Survey Distributed by Survey Monkey on Dec 21,2018;n=504Key Take:The majority of Instagram users(66%)check 3x or less a day.Using the same weighted average methodology as we did on FB,we get to the average Instagram user checking roughly 4.8x a day(similar