www.jpmm.com/Research/GlobalFXStrategyGlobalFXStrategy&GlobalEMResearch12April2019KeyCurrencyViewsSpringiscoming?GlobalFXStrategy&EMMarketsMeeraChandanAC(44-20)7134-2924meera.chandan@jpmorgan.comJ.P.MorganSecuritiesplcPaulMeggyesi(44-20)7134-2714paul.meggyesi@jpmorgan.comJ.P.MorganSecuritiesplcSallyMAuld(61-2)9003-7904sally.m.auld@jpmorgan.comJ.P.MorganSecuritiesAustraliaLimitedDanielPHui(1-212)834-5997daniel.hui@jpmorgan.comJ.P.MorganSecuritiesLLCTohruSasaki(81-3)6736-7717tohru.sasaki@jpmorgan.comJPMorganSecuritiesJapanCo.,Ltd.ThomasAnthonj(44-20)7742-7850thomas.e.anthonj@jpmorgan.comJ.P.MorganSecuritiesplcAnezkaChristovova(44-20)7742-2630anezka.christovova@jpmorgan.comJ.P.MorganSecuritiesplcRobertHabib(1-212)834-4876robert.habib@jpmchase.comJ.P.MorganSecuritiesLLCJonathanCavenagh(65)6882-8424jonathan.cavenagh@jpmorgan.comJPMorganChaseBank,N.A.,SingaporeBranchSeepage44foranalystcertificationandimportantdisclosures.Globalcentralbankscontinuetopivotdovishly.SoftcoreinflationindicatesthatlargeDMcentralbankswillmaintaintheirdovishbiasinthecomingmonths……whileglobalgrowthmomentumisimproving.Asiagrowthisupgraded;Euroareaforecastshavebeenstableforthreemonths.ThecombinationofthesetwofactorsisencouragingforhighbetaFX,butsometailrisksremain.Therecoveryisstillearly-stageandFXmarketsarealreadypricedtofavourablegrowthoutcomes.StaybearishonvulnerableG10FXwhereidiosyncraticfactorsdominate(AUD,NZDondovishcentralbanks;CADonNAFTAratificationrisk).CautiousonEURgivenlingeringgrowthrisks;furtherimprovementisrequiredfordecisivestrengthening.NeutralacrossregionsinEMFX.Thegrowthupturnistracking,butEMassetshavealreadyhadagoodyear.FXtargetsaremostlyunchanged.InG10,EUR/USD:Unchangedat2Q191.12andat1.17for1Q20.GBPdowngradedtoreflectaBrexitdelay(EUR/GBPat0.87from0.84forJune).Asia:KRWtargetsdowngradedby4%(USD/KRW1Q20at1145from1100).USD/CNY1Q20at6.65(unchanged).EMEA:ZARupgraded(USD/ZAR14.6from15).Latam:USD/BRL2Q193.80(from3.70).USD/MXN2Qat19.50(from19.75).HappyAnniversary:Forthe...
