J.P. 摩根-全球-科技行业-区块链和加密货币：应用、表现与挑战-2019.1-49页.pdf

Global ResearchJanuary 2019Chair of Global ResearchJoyce Chang(1-212)834-J.P.Morgan Securities LLCSee end pages for analyst certification and important disclosures,including investment banking relationshipsAdditional contact details also included in the back of the presentationUS Rates StrategyAlex Roever J.P.Morgan Securities LLCEuropean General FinancialsGurjit KJ.P.Morgan Securities plcEuropean BanksRaul Sinha J.P.Morgan Securities plcBrokers,Asset Managers and ExchangesKenneth WJ.P.Morgan Securities LLCSoftware TechnologySterling Auty,CFA J.P.Morgan Securities LLCMetals Strategy ResearchNatasha KJ.P.Morgan Securities LLCLong-Term StrategyJan Loeys AC(1-212)834-5874J.P.Morgan Securities LLCJ.P.Morgan PerspectivesBlockchain and Cryptocurrencies:Adoption,Performance,and Challenges每日免费获取报告1、每日微信群内分享7+最新重磅报告；2、每日分享当日华尔街日报、金融时报；3、每周分享经济学人4、行研报告均为公开版，权利归原作者所有，起点财经仅分发做内部学习。扫一扫二维码关注公号回复：研究报告加入“起点财经”微信群。AdoptionProgress has been made to move blockchain adoption beyond experimentation and use in payments,but development has been largely confined to use cases like smart contracts,record keeping,and decentralized applications rather than an institutionalized approach.Barriers for blockchain implementation remain significant,including data privacy,security,regulation,scalability,and governance challenges.Blockchain is unlikely to re-invent the global payments system,but instead it can provide marginal improvements to various parts of the process.Blockchain solutions making a meaningful difference for banks are at least three to five years away,in our view,with Trade Finance likely to benefit the most.Digitization of the supply chain is still in its infancy and requires more automated inputs as the blockchain network must include the whole supply chain for maximum efficiency to be realized.Greater progress has occurred outside the US.The Australian Stock Exchange and Spanish banks are relatively advanced in the implementation of blockchain technology.PerformanceThe cryptocurrency market lost 85%in value from its 2018 peak,and mainstream institutional cryptocurrency acceptance remains challenged,with small businesses and individuals as the most logical near-term adopters.The cryptocurrency market has become even more dominated by individual investors as participation by financial institutions has faded.Bitcoins cost support likely sits$2,400/BTC,below the$3,200/BTC we had estimated in February 2018,and it could fall below$1,260/BTC if a bear market persists,but watch for a halving event.Executive summary1ChallengesThe asset management industry has yet to gain SEC approval to launch a cryptocurrency ETF,and no major retailer has added cryptocurrency acceptance in 2018.Public blockchain mass adoption faces challenges as projects that provide better decentralization and security often lack the required scalability,while those that provide better security lack the desired decentralization.Scalability remains the main obstacle for mass adoption,limited by the decentralized nature of platforms,like Bitcoin and Ethereum,and security considerations.The potential for fraud and manipulation,lack of market size,and lack of regulation of the underlying products remain barriers to scalability.Cryptocurrencies value as diversification remains unproven in most environments other than a dystopian one,marked by loss of faith in all major currencies and the payments system.Executive summary2AgendaPage1Blockchain and cryptocurrencies:Adoption,performance,and challenges32Blockchain evolution 53What has changed in cryptocurrency markets over the past year?74Bitcoin cost support near$2,40095Retail acceptance of cryptocurrency remains challenged106Regulatory issues on cryptocurrency:Lessons from Japan117Venezuelas Petro:A dry well128Harnessing the power of blockchain in utilities 149Blockchain in transportation1510Financial Services adoption1611Banks involvement in blockchain1712Asset Management industry still seeking approval to launch cryptocurrency funds1913Spanish banks leading the way2114How has regulation of cryptocurrencies evolved over the past year?2315Cryptocurrencies as portfolio diversification:Still failing24In the exchanges universe,the Australian Stock Exchange(ASX)is at a relatively advanced stage to embrace Blockchain as it seeks to replace its existing settlement/clearing system(CHESS)by late 2020.ASX management has indicated that their version of DLT would involve a private permissioned ledger,and ASX will be the only one to hold the single source of truth,with all other participants only having access to certain parts of the Blockchain as is necessary to unlock their applicable information.What Is Blockchain?Source:J.P.Morgan.BlockchainBlockchain applicationThe key components of BlockchainIn its simplistic form,Blockchain can be considered as a superior database where:iData that is stored is encryptediiAccessto the data is encryptedivTransactions are immutable,in that it is impossible to alterhistoricalrecords,thus creating a credibleaudit trailiiiThe distributed nature of the Blockchain means that it hasa built in redundancy and can survive the loss of one nodebecause the master record is sharedData storeTransaction logReplicated across a distributed networkUse of cryptography and digital signaturesDrives real time consensusWhat is a Blockchain?Decentralised systemIrrevocable and auditable trail3Benefits and obstacles of Blockchain adoptionBenefits of Blockchain adoptionObstacles to Blockchain adoptionCosts reducedInfrastructure costs reduced in data management,reconciliations,settlement,administration,etc.Efficiency improvedSpeeding up processes by permitting transactions without the need of a trusted third party.Liquidity increasedScope to reduce settlement periods could promote lower capital requirements.Security enhancedCryptography ensures ledger is immutable,and permissioned platform provides added security.Regulation friendlyProvides greater transparency with an auditable transaction log and mitigates counterparty risk.Cost:benefit analysisManaging a trade-off between short-term investment vs.long-term potential gains.Free rider issue given collaboration necessarySharing investment burden within and across industries may prove challenging.Legal&RegulatoryLegal issues with use of smart contracts,and need for regulatory approval for full adoption.Technical hurdlesChallenges relating to scalability,data privacy,technology standardization,etc.Security breachesCyber threat could be disruptive and corrupt the blockchainnetwork.4AgendaPage1Blockchain and cryptocurrencies:Adoption,performance,and challenges32Blockchain evolution 53What has changed in cryptocurrency markets over the past year?74Bitcoin cost support near$2,40095Retail acceptance of cryptocurrency remains challenged106Regulatory issues on cryptocurrency:Lessons from Japan117Venezuelas Petro:A dry well128Harnessing the power of blockchain in utilities 149Blockchain in transportation1510Financial Services adoption1611Banks involvement in blockchain1712Asset Management industry still seeking approval to launch cryptocurrency funds1913Spanish banks leading the way2114How has regulation of cryptocurrencies evolved over the past year?2315Cryptocurrencies as portfolio diversification:Still failing24Blockchain evolutionSource:J.P.MorganBlockchain use cases beyond paymentsFinancial ServicesReal-EstateAutomobile DealershipPaymentsNew Sale Car is stored in a garage with a smart lock Transfer of money from one user to other Cross-border payments Payer collected the car from the garageTrading and IssuanceRentingIP Licensing Execution of custom derivative contracts Issuing bond or equitySupply ChainHealthcareDocument/File Trail File Integrity monitoringIdentity ManagementFinancial ServicesPublic Sector Storage of KYC data and AML verification Store court cases improv ing accuracyFunctionWeb 2.0Web 3.0(Dapps)Storage Dropbox,Google Drive,OneDrive Storj,Filecoin,Sia,MaidSafeVideo and audio calls Skype ExpertyOperating System Android,IOS Elastos,Essentia OneSocial Network Facebook,Twitter,LinkedIn Steemit,Ono,SoMee,MithrilMessaging WeChat,Messenger,Whatsapp Status,Dust,Cryptv iserMusic Spotify MyceliaVideo Streaming YouTube,Netflix Flixxo,Dtube,Videocoin Once the monthly payment is receiv ed,the payer gets the code to the lock Blockchain acts as a record keeper in case of disputes Property title locked with a smart code that is generated from the owners private key Once payment is receiv ed,the smart lock code is transferred to the payerSmart Contracts:Creating Value By Eliminating Middle Men Payments that require more than one signature in order to execute a payment Once payment is receiv ed,the smart code executes and title is transferred Transfer of financial securities like shares,bonds,futures,commodities,etc.Property is locked with a smart lock generated from owners private key License a patent to a third party only upon receival of paymentsData Storage:Record Keeping To Benefit From Secure Data Storage Authorization on blockchain improv es visibility to participants speeding the process Every step in the process is recorded improving quality of service Persons key identification characteristics like fingerprint,retina scan can be stored cryptographically For accessing any system this identification can then be cross-referencedDapps:Current Web Apps To Be Replaced By Next-Gen Blockchain Bas ed Apps Store patient credentials with encryption that can be unlocked with the priv ate key provided by patient/authorizer Store medical research data through encryption Trade Finance-Letters of credit can be publicly visible reducing fraud Securely store data related to ownership and asset custody Preventing unauthorized deletion of files provides audit trail Document can be signed by priv ate key displacing physical/e-signatures Official registry for government assets,land records,vehicle ownership etc5Blockchain evolutionVerticalization of Dapps is on the riseDapps eliminate centralized hosting(no single point of failure)and are resistant to censorshipOffers users a chance to move away from inapt data sharing practices by centralized entities and keep data in their controlWe are seeing proliferation of Dapps catering to specific verticals,which can potentially displace traditional applicationsThe only hurdle for mass adoption is scalabilityBreaking the trilemma A key engineering challengeA blockchain platform can have any two of the following three characteristics:Security,Scalability,and DecentralizationProjects that provide better decentralization and security often lack scalability,while others providing better scalability lack decentralizationThere are a number of potential solutions including Sharding,State Channels and Sidechains that can increase scalability without sacrificing decentralizationEnterprise blockchain evolutionMost of the development efforts in enterprise blockchain are driven in-house or through collaborationBlockchain-as-a-servicePublic cloud providers like AWS or Azure are helping enterprises spin up blockchain or develop blockchain apps in the cloud with pre-configured protocolsThis saves organizations the time and effort of developing the entire logic by themselvesKey themes that have emerged across 20186AgendaPage1Blockchain and cryptocurrencies:Adoption,performance,and challenges32Blockchain evolution 53What has changed in cryptocurrency markets over the past year?74Bitcoin cost support near$2,40095Retail acceptance of cryptocurrency remains challenged106Regulatory issues on cryptocurrency:Lessons from Japan117Venezuelas Petro:A dry well128Harnessing the power of blockchain in utilities 149Blockchain in transportation1510Financial Services adoption1611Banks involvement in blockchain1712Asset Management industry still seeking approval to launch cryptocurrency funds1913Spanish banks leading the way2114How has regulation of cryptocurrencies evolved over the past year?2315Cryptocurrencies as portfolio diversification:Still failing24Cryptocurrency markets have shrunk and liquidity has deteriorated;Bitcoin remains highly concentrated,and participation by financial institutions has reversed previous increasesSource:Coin.danceSource:Bloomberg,J.P.MorganSource:BSource:Bloomberg,J.P.MorganMarket cap of cryptocurrencies in$bnAggregate open interest across Bitcoin futures contracts;$mnProportion of addresses and total Bitcoin held by balanceBitcoin volumes on futures exchanges relative to cryptocurrency exchangesBalance(Bitcoins)Addresses%Coins 0-0.00148.85%0.01%0.001-0.0122.50%0.12%0.01-0.117.37%0.73%0.1-18.15%3.34%1-102.46%8.41%10-1000.59%25.06%100-1,0000.07%21.27%1,000-10,0000.01%25.54%10,000-100,0000%12.30%100,000-1,000,0000%3.23%0100200300400500600700800900Jan-17 Apr-17Jul-17Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18Jul-18Oct-18 Jan-19BitcoinOther cryptocurrencies020406080100120140160Dec17Jan18Feb18Mar18Apr18May18Jun18Jul18Aug18Sep18Oct18Nov18Dec18CBOECME0%2%4%6%8%10%12%Dec 17Mar 18Jun 18Sep 18Dec 18Futures volumes as%of BTC exchanges7Bitcoin mining activity was boosted during 2018 by improvements in technology,but price declines eventually made mining unprofitable for higher-cost miners after 4Q18*Estimated using the cost of production approach following Hayes(2008).Source:B,J.P.MorganRatio of Bitcoin market price to intrinsic value*Source:B,J.P.Morgan*Estimated using the cost of production approach following Hayes(2008).Source:B,J.P.MorganBitcoin hash rate(EH/s)Bitcoin market price and estimated intrinsic value;$0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.0Jan-17Apr-17Jul-17Oct-17Jan-18Apr-18Jul-18Oct-180500010000150002000025000Jan-17Apr-17Jul-17Oct-17Jan-18Apr-18Jul-18Oct-18Intrinsic valueMarket price01020304050607015161718198AgendaPage1Blockchain and cryptocurrencies:Adoption,performance,and challenges32Blockchain evolution 53What has changed in cryptocurrency markets over the past year?74Bitcoin cost support near$2,40095Retail acceptance of cryptocurrency remains challenged106Regulatory issues on cryptocurrency:Lessons from Japan117Venezuelas Petro:A dry well128Harnessing the power of blockchain in utilities 149Blockchain in transportation1510Financial Services adoption1611Banks involvement in blockchain1712Asset Management industry still seeking approval to launch cryptocurrency funds1913Spanish banks leading the way2114How has regulation of cryptocurrencies evolved over the past year?2315Cryptocurrencies as portfolio diversification:Still failing24Bitcoin cost support is ultimately set by the lowest cost producer(low-cost Chinese miners)and likely sits around$2,400/BTCHowever,this cost level could easily fall to below$1,260/BTC if the current bear market persists.Source:Blockchain.info,Bloomberg New Energy Finance,Bitmain,Eurostat,EIA,Rosstat,News Reports,J.P.Morgan Regional Bitcoin mining cash cost curve,4Q 2018X-axis:Percent of total Bitcoin rewarded;Y-axis:cost in$/BTCSource:Blockchain.info,Bloomberg New Energy Finance.Country refers to country of ownership.Source:Blockchain.info,Bloomberg Ne