J.P. 摩根-全球-宏观策略-全球宏观数据观察-2019.2.1-92页.pdf

Economic ResearchFebruary 1,2019Global Data Watch FOMC shifts from a pause in tightening to a neutral stance Manufacturing weakness persists as global capex gains likely stall Expecting a broader dovish tilt from EM central banks Next week:RBI to ease;German IP rebounds;composite PMI dropsInto the closet,Mr.PhillipsTwo key elements of our macroeconomic outlook were prominent in this weeks news flow.The first is that drags weighing on global growth are un-likely to fade soon and will be concentrated in the manufacturing sector.The second is that these drags are being absorbed,thus far,with limited adjust-ments to private sector behavior and with additional macroeconomic policy supports.Of greatest importance on the policy front is this weeks signal from the Fed that it no longer has a bias toward tightening and that inflation will need to move up before it considers further rate increases.This shift suggests that even with a reasonably firm economy the risk has tilted away from our forecast of a resumption of tightening in July.The latest activity readings point to a new leg of manufacturing weakness with the global manufacturing output PMI declining 1.1pts to 50.8 in January,consistent with IP gains of just 1.1%ar.Of more concern is that the new orders PMI slid to just 50.1,its lowest level in over six years.From the demand side,the source of this production weakness likely is capex.With the fall in PMI orders concentrated in Germany(44.7),China(47.3),and Japan(48.7),it is reasonable to conclude that last years slide in business expectations is now slowing global investment spending.Available data point to a sharp deceleration in our global capex proxy,with global capital goods imports tracking back-to-back declines in Novem-ber/December,led by a collapse in China(Figure 1).Likewise,our global invest-ment goods output PMI plunged in January,consistent with a stall in capex growth.For the past year,a slide in business expectations,linked to the US-China trade conflict,threatened to slow investment spending.This appears to be happen-ing,with other sources of geopolitical uncertainty and the tightening in global financial conditions last quarter magnifying the drag.At the same time that manufacturing struggles,the news from labor markets and consumers remains upbeat.Led by robust US jobs growth,this week de-livered positive readings across the G-3.Solid employment gains are combin-ing with falling inflation to boost retail spending gains,even as consumer-10-50510150.00.51.01.52.002 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20%3m3m,saar;both scales.Figure 1:Global employment and capexCapex proxy*(w/Jan fcst)Employment*Excludes China.Source:J.P.Morgan5860626466684850525456582013201520172019DI,saFigure 2:Global mfg output PMISource:J.P.MorganExpectationsCurrentContentsUS:Revisiting the terminal size of the Fed balance sheet16US:Tax cuts and house prices18UK:Brexit meets global in slow growth tango20SA:Assessing fiscal hit and implications of SOE reality22Turkey:Rebalancing and deleveraging fast25RBA to start the year with a familiar narrative29Global Economic Outlook Summary4Global Central Bank Watch6Nowcast of global growth7Selected recent research from J.P.Morgan Economics9The J.P.Morgan View:Markets10Data WatchesUnited States31Euro area38Japan44Canada48Mexico50Brazil52Argentina54Chile and Colombia56United Kingdom58Emerging Europe60South Africa&SSA63MENA65EMEA EM focus67Australia and New Zealand68China,Hong Kong,and Taiwan70Korea74ASEAN76India80Asia focus82Regional Data Calendars84Bruce Kasman(1-212)834-JPMorgan Chase Bank NADavid Hensley(1-212)834-JPMorgan Chase Bank NAJoseph Lupton(1-212)834-JPMorgan Chase Bank NA每日免费获取报告1、每日微信群内分享7+最新重磅报告；2、每日分享当日华尔街日报、金融时报；3、每周分享经济学人4、行研报告均为公开版，权利归原作者所有，起点财经仅分发做内部学习。扫一扫二维码关注公号回复：研究报告加入“起点财经”微信群。2Economic ResearchGlobal Data WatchFebruary 1,2019JPMorgan Chase Bank NABruce Kasman(1-212)834-David Hensley(1-212)834-Joseph Lupton(1-212)834-confidence has lost altitude as a result of rising geopolitical concerns.A thawing of the US-China trade truce may be calming outlook fears.The global manufacturing PMI of fu-ture output jumped nearly 2pts in January,breaking a nearly continuous downtrend that took hold in 1Q18(Figure 2).This weeks negotiations in Washington,which were characterized as constructive,are set to be followed by a next round of talks in Beijing in mid-February.Although the FOMC was expected to reinforce its decision to pause this week,its removal of any tightening bias sent a stronger-than-anticipated signal about its growth concerns.The committee also emphasized patience and a new reference to monitoring“muted inflation pressures”alongside“global economic and financial developments.”A shift in tone about inflation was central in Chair Powells press conferencewhere he noted that the risk of too-high inflation has dimin-ished in recent months.With wage inflation rising and core PCE inflation remaining in a narrow 1.8%-2.0%range it ap-pears that the FOMCs inflation tolerance is shifting more than the data(Figure 3).With Clarida and Williamswho have recently assumed leadership roleshaving spoken ap-provingly of an inflation overshoot,we may be seeing a reac-tion function shift where a rise in core inflation above 2%is now a desired outcome of a high-pressure labor market.To be sure,we do not believe the Phillips curve is dead and this weeks shift in rhetoric may turn out to be an overreaction to downside risk.But this weeks FOMC communication did its best to put the Phillips curve into a closet.Let the doves awakeThe degree to which the dovish shift that has taken place among the major central banks(and the Fed in particular)has rippled across the globe will be on display in next weeks 11central bank meetings.In Asia,we look for Indias RBI to turn dovish and cut 25bp,aided in part by a food-price-induced undershoot of their inflation target but now a close call in light of recent fiscal developments.We expect the BoT(Thailand)and BSP(Philippines)to remain on hold.We also see the RBA(Australia)on hold but given market expecta-tions for a cut by year-end,the decision could be viewed as somewhat hawkish.In Europe,we look for the BoE(UK)to maintain a tightening bias next week but the risk is that our call for a May hike is delayed depending upon next weeks communications,which will likely include color on the banks thinking about Brexit and the impact of a potential“no deal.”In the Czech Repub-lic,a softer external backdrop(EMU and Brexit)and an easier Fed are offsetting tight domestic conditions and we now ex-pect the CNB to express a hawkish hold at next weeks meet-ingdelaying our call for hikes to May and August.With growth in Russia slowing in response to past preemptive hikes,we see the CBR on hold at next weeks meeting.But with inflation remaining elevated,we still expect one last hike in March even though the risks are for an end to the hiking cycle.Bucking the global trend,the CBRT(Turkey)this week sent an unexpected(but welcomed)hawkish signal even as it revised down its inflation forecasts.We think the Bank is cur-rently free from political pressure and is using this opportuni-ty to rebuild credibility(Figure 4).In Latin America,no central bank is more geared to the Fed than Banxico(Mexico),which we see remaining on hold at next weeks meeting.Despite closely watching the Fed,Banxicos main focus is on domestic factors,namely elevated inflation expectations contrasted with sluggish growth as well as the ramifications of government actions.On balance,we now see the rate hiking cycle as over,with next move being a cut in early 2020.Similarly,we expect the COPOM(Brazil)to stay on hold with risks shifting in the direction of an ex-tended pause.USChina trade talks progressBoth sides said this weeks US-China trade talks achieved“significant progress.”US Trade Representative Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin will travel to China in mid-1.01.52.02.53.01.52.02.53.03.51213141516171819%oya;both scalesFigure 3:US average hourly earnings and core PCE deflatorSource:BLS,BEA,J.P.MorganCore PCEAHE-4-2024651015202510131619%.p.a.;both scalesFigure 4:Turkey policy rateNote:Real rate calculated based on%oya in CPI.Source:J.P.MorganRealNominal3Economic ResearchGlobal Data WatchFebruary 1,2019JPMorgan Chase Bank NABruce Kasman(1-212)834-David Hensley(1-212)834-Joseph Lupton(1-212)834-February to continue the negotiations;that round is expected to be followed by a meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi in late February.Despite recent progress,the two sides appear to have substantial disagreements on US demands for structural change in China and how to enforce it.We think the March deadline will be extended,with China committing to continued negotiations on reforms and to significantly in-crease its imports from the US.With the latest data pointing to a potential further downshift in Chinese growth and the Fed signaling it is on hold,Chinese officials also appear poised to enact additional stimulus.We now expect the PBOC to cut the 7-day reverse repo rate(possibly by 5-10bp)in March and look for another 100bp RRR cut in April.Likewise,we now anticipate a bit more easing of fiscal policy.Our latest fore-casts look for the augmented fiscal deficit to increase to 11.5%of GDP in 2019,from 10.8%in 2018.Looking for higher oil pricesWith a number of supply and demand factors tugging in op-posing directions,Brent crude oil prices have traded in a very tight$59-63/bbl range in the last two weeks.Our bias re-mains a move toward$70/bbl.While high US inventories have weighed on oil prices,we believe deeper production cuts by Saudi Arabia compared to the level pledged under the OPEC+agreement,the expected slowdown in US production growth due lower capital expenditures and completion in the US,and risks to supply from Iran and Venezuela due to US measures are likely to support oil prices.The latest US sanc-tions on Venezuela should effectively halt the flow of Vene-zuelan crude to the US,currently around 500kbd,and the generator of more than half of Venezuelas export revenue.This might be enough to force a change in government,in which case there could be longer-term term upside supply risks.At the same time,a US-China trade deal should support oil prices.PM May buys time,“no deal”still unlikelyThis week Prime Minister May achieved two things that ulti-mately do not change the Brexit dynamic.While she was able to avoid the House of Commons beginning a process that would give it the legal ability to instruct the executive to seek an extension of Article 50,this came with the promise that another opportunity to do so will be presented on February 14 if the Commons does not agree to a deal in the meantime.Second,May was able to secure majority support for the statement that the House would accept the Withdrawal Agreement if it contained“alternative arrangements”for the Irish backstop.This support provides the Brexiteers and the DUP encouragement that she will now be significantly more aggressive in negotiations with the EU.However,such ag-gressiveness is unlikely to impress an EU united behind the idea that the Withdrawal Agreement is not open for renegotia-tion.Although it is taking longer to resolve the UKs internal polit-ical divisions than we expected,our sense of the relative like-lihood of eventual outturns is not much changed.“No deal”looks unlikely as a majority in the Commons will force an extension to negotiations if necessary(and the EU will,after haggling,agree to it).Neither a general election nor a second referendum appears likely to secure a majority as a means to resolve the impasse.Hence the single most likely path re-mains that PM May is eventually able to secure a majority behind“the deal.”The Bank of England has suggested that in a“no deal”scenar-io the combination of immediate logistical and regulatory impairment to supply,and associated behavioral responses,would generate a contraction in GDP of comparable magni-tude to the financial crisis.In our view the magnitudes are almost unquantifiable,but the qualitative judgement that the impact would be severe is correct.The EUs exports of goods and services to the UK,scaled relative to the GDP,are around a quarter of those running in the other direction.Given that the direct systemic consequences for the EU of“no deal”would be less than for the UK,putting the“no deal”hit to EU/Euro area GDP at 25%of that seen in the UK strikes us as the high end of the range.Regardless,given the recent loss of growth momentum,the impact appears likely to be large enough to push the region as a whole back into recession,and would plausibly reignite the existential concerns around the Euro area.Editor:Gabriel de Kock(1-212)622-6718 4Economic ResearchGlobal economic outlook sum-maryFebruary 1,2019JPMorgan Chase Bank NADavid Hensley(1-212)834-Carlton Strong(1-212)834-Joseph Lupton(1-212)834-Global economic outlook summary Real GDPReal GDPConsumer prices%over a year ago%over previous period,saar%over a year ago2018201920203Q184Q181Q192Q193Q194Q192Q184Q182Q194Q19United States2.9 2.3 1.5 3.4 2.21.8 2.3 1.8 1.5 2.6 2.2 1.3 1.6Canada2.11.81.72.01.51.51.82.22.32.32.02.02.0Latin America1.3 1.8 2.2 1.8-0.12.1 3.4 3.0 2.4 3.5 4.1 4.2 3.8Argentina-2.5-1.22.6-2.7-8.2-0.16.04.03.027.147.349.328.5Brazil1.2 2.3 2.2 3.1 0.6 2.6 3.2 3.2 2.0 3.3 4.1 4.2 3.8Chile3.93.53.01.13.54.04.24.03.82.22.83.33.5Colombia2.7 3.1 3.1 0.9 3.0 2.8 4.5 3.5 3.5 3.2 3.3 3.5 3.7Ecuador1.1-0.4-0.83.6-2.5-1.51.0-2.0-1.0-0.80.00.30.5Mexico2.0 1.7 1.7 3.4 1.21.5 2.0 1.8 2.0 4.6 4.8 4.8 4.0Peru4.03.93.6-3.13.04.54.04.04.00.92.42.62.7Uruguay2.1 1.9 1.9-0.1 0.5 2.0 3.0 4.0 1.0 7.3 7.4 7.8 7.2Venezuela-10.01.02.028250600000.Asia/Pacific4.84.64.53.64.84.44.55.03.92.01.92.02.0Japan0.8 0.9 0.6-2.5 2.5 1.2 0.8 2.5-3.5 0.6 0.9 0.4 0.3Australia3.02.62.71.02.83.02.62.52.92.11.61.82.5New Zealand2.8 2.5 2.6 1.3 2.0 2.9 2.6 2.5 2.4 1.5 1.9 1.8 1.7EM Asia6.05.65.65.45.65.35.65.95.82.32.22.42.4China6.6 6.2 6.2 6.0 6.1 5.9 6.2 6.4 6.2 1.8 2.2 2.4 2.2India7.37.27.16.96.86.67.17.57.74.82.73.74.5Ex China/India3.8 3.33.5 2.9 3.73.1 3.3 3.6 3.7 2.0 2.0 1.8 1.9 Hong Kong3.32.72.60.42.04.03.53.33.12.12.62.83.0 Indonesia5.1 4.8 4.9 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.8 3.3 3.2 3.0 2.8 Korea2.72.72.62.33.92.02.62.92.91.51.81.51.5 Malaysia4.7 4.4 4.3 6.7 4.0 4.5 4.3 4.3 4.3 1.3 0.3 1.3 1.8 Philippines6.26.05.96.16.46.16.15.76.14.85.93.32.1 Singapore3.3 2.4 3.0 3.0 1.6 3.0 1.0 2.8 3.0 0.3 0.9 1.4 1.6 Taiwan2.61.52.01.51.60.91.92.12.11.70.50.31.6 Thailand4.2 3.3 3.8-0.1 4.5 2.8 3.5 4.5 4.5 1.3 1.1 1.2 1.3Western Europe1.81.51.70.91.01.71.71.71.81.82.01.41.2Euro area1.8 1.4 1.7 0.6 0.91.8 1.8 1.5 1.8 1.7 1.9 1.1 1.0Germany1.51.41.7-0.80.52.81.81.51.81.92.11.71.3France1.5 1.21.7 1.11.11.0 1.3 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.2 1.2 1.2Italy0.80.20.9-0.5-0.90.50.80.80.81.01.50.80.8Spain2.5 2.31.9 2.2 2.82.3 2.3 2.0 2.0 1.8 1.8 0.7 0.8Norway2.42.32.11.12.82.52.52.32.32.43.42.81.7Sweden2.4 1.9 1.8-0.9 3.3 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.9 2.1 2.0 2.3United Kingdom1.41.51.82.51.01.01.52.32.02.4