HS-港股-房地产行业-2020年香港房地产展望：攀登恐惧之墙-2020.1.13-77页.pdfVIP免费

Disclosures&DisclaimerThisreportmustbereadwiththedisclosuresandtheanalystcertificationsintheDisclosureappendix,andwiththeDisclaimer,whichformspartofit.Issuerofreport:TheHongkongandShanghaiBankingCorporationLimitedViewHSBCGlobalResearchat:https://www.research.hsbc.comTHISCONTENTMAYNOTBEDISTRIBUTEDTOMAINLANDCHINAWethinkthenegativenewsaboutweakeconomicgrowthislargelyreflectedinsharepricesandconsensusestimatesValuationslookattractive;inflectionpointlikelyinmid-2020eCKAsset,NewWorldDevelopment,HongkongLand,SwirePropandHangLungProp(allBuys)areourpreferredstocksAstormystart–recession,unemploymentandsubduedsentiment.Weexpect1H20tobeadifficultperiodfortheHongKongrealestatemarket,drivenbyaweakeconomyandadeclineinthetourism-relatedbusiness.OurEconomicsteamexpectsmultipleheadwindstocontinuetoweighonexternalanddomesticdemand,andnear-termimprovementappearsunlikely(HongKongEconomy,12Dec2019).WeforecastHongKongresidentialpricestofall5-10%,andofficeandretailrenttodecline3-5%and5-10%,respectively,inthenextsixmonthsbeforestabilisation.However,webelievethevaluationshavelargelydiscountedtheprevailingmacroheadwinds.Thesectortradesata53%NAVdiscount,1.0SDbelowits10-yearaverage.Thisissimilartothevaluationsseenin2015and2018.Inthisreport,wehighlighteightreasons(Fig14onpage8)whywebelieveinvestorsshouldcapturethisinvestmentopportunity.Everycloudhasasilverlining.ItisachallengingtimefortheHongKongpropertymarket,butwearguethatthingsshouldimprovefromhere.Thehousingpolicydirectionhaschangedfromastanceoftighteningtoloosening,asseenbythemortgagerelaxationinOctober2019.Overthepastfivemonths,thegovernmenthasintroducedfourroundsofstimulusmeasurestostabilisethelocaleconomy.Theseshouldprovidegoodsupporttothelocalrealestatemarket.Manycompaniesareproactivelylookingtosecuregrowthviaacquisitionsinsteadofcuttingtheircapex,whichsuggestsinvestorsshouldnotbetoopessimistic.Sub-sectorpreference–Office>Retail>Residential.Wethinkofficeandretaillandlordslookattractivefromavaluationperspective.Alibaba’slisti...