J.P. 摩根-全球-投资策略-年中跨资产展望与策略：粗糙的政治、政权更迭、日本化和市场受限-2019.6.13-58页 (2).pdfVIP免费

Roughpolitics,regimechange,Japanization&constrainedmarketsMid-yearcross-assetoutlook&strategywww.jpmm.com/JohnNormandJohnNormandACHeadofCross-AssetFundamentalStrategy(44-20)7134-1816john.normand@jpmorgan.comJ.P.MorganSecuritiesplcSeetheendpagesofthispresentationforanalystcertificationandimportantdisclosures.Cross-AssetStrategy13June20191Roughpolitics,regimechangeandJapanizationSeveralmarketshavedeliveredabove-averagereturnsthisyear(DMEquities,DM&EMCredit),mostlyviaanextraordinaryQ1,whenthedominantmacrothemeswereaUS/Chinatradetruce,adovishFedandatighteningOilmarket.BycontrastQ2hasbroughtmostlydefensivenessandretracementsasTrumpresumedandbroadenedthetradewar,thusmakingBonds,GoldandafewS&Psectors(RealEstate,Utilities,Staples)thebest-performingassetsinearlysummer(slides2-3).ThispresentationandpodcastdiscussfourmacroandpolicythemesthatareunfoldingatdifferentspeedsbutwhichwillinfluencemarketsinH22019andinto2020.Theyare(1)Trump’sunfinishedtrade,technologyandbudgetwars(slides7-18);(2)Fedratecutsaspartofstandardriskmanagementandaonce-in-a-generationregimechange(slides20-29);(3)broaderJapanizationacrossregions,marketsandsectors(slides31-34);and(4)late-cycledynamicsnowcatalyzedbygeopoliticsratherthanarestrictiveFed(slides36-42).H2will,inourview,beshapedmainlybythetensionbetweenPresidentTrump’sattemptstodeliveroncampaignpromisesandtheFed’seffortstooffsetthegrowthconsequencesofhisspoilers.Aless-aggressiveWhiteHouseandamoreactivistFedcanprevent2019fromdeliveringthefirstman-maderecessioninhistory,butsomethingmorestructuralwouldberequiredtopreventfurtherJapanizationofglobalfixedincomemarkets(includingBond,G10andGoldvolatility)andsomeequitysectors.Asthisrecord-longexpansionentersitstenthyear,itisstillusefultomonitorlate-cyclehallmarks(macroimbalances,excessleverage,lowriskpremia),butalsotorecallthatvulnerabilitiesrequirecatalyststodeliverarecessionandjustifydefensiveassetallocationformorethanafewmonths.Overthepast50years,arestrictiveFedand/oranoilshockhasdriventhetrans...