J.P. 摩根-美股-媒体行业-媒体行业：Alexia的体育权利年鉴2019-2019.7.18-129页 (2).pdf

North America Equity Research18 July 2019MediaAlexias Sports Rights Almanac-2019MediaAlexia S.Quadrani AC(1-212)622-Bloomberg JPMA QUADRANI David Karnovsky,CFA AC(1-212)622-Bloomberg JPMA KARNOVSKY Zilu Pan(1-212)622-Anna Lizzul(1-212)622-J.P.Morgan Securities LLCSee page 126 for analyst certification and important disclosures.J.P.Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports.As a result,investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.In a rapidly shifting media landscape in which the way programming is consumed is changing every day,live sports stand out as one of the last forms of“appointment viewing”left on television.This unique position makes sports rights a prize for traditional networks.The associated live and engaged mass audiences are a huge draw for advertisers looking for reach,and in the argument of the superiority of traditional versus digital ads,sports remain above the fray.Networks,too,take full advantage of the advertising appeal,bundling sports inventory with ad space on less watched programming.The“must-have”and live nature of the content also provides media companies with significant leverage in negotiating agreements with distributors eager to keep subs from cutting the cord.Weve also seen in the past few years ESPN,Turner,and Discovery,in addition to independent platforms such as DAZN utilize exclusive sports rights to launch direct-to-consumer services.The bulk of major sports deals were struck in the first half of this decade,largely locking up media rights through the early 2020s.Looking ahead,traditional networks will not only compete with each other for these properties,but potentially with scaled or upstart digital companies looking to utilize the content to enhance their own platforms.We,therefore,find it useful to reexamine these rights deals continually,analyze the cost paid,and assess the potential value created.In this note,we present an in-depth look at rights contracts for several major sports.The 2019 Almanac includes a refresh of past sections,including the NFL,NBA,NASCAR,March Madness,MLB,several Soccer leagues,Formula 1,WWE,and Esports.In the NFL section,we also take a deeper look at the various scenarios for how the leaguesrenewal cycle may play out,including the possibility of ABC or a digital platform making a serious bid for a rights window.Finally,we have added new sections for the NHL and Grand Slam Tennis this year.2North America Equity Research18 July 2019Alexia S.Quadrani(1-212)622-Table of ContentsKey Themes.4Selected Sports Contracts.6I.NFL.8“Theres NFL Football,and Then Theres Everything Else”.9NFL Rights Overview.10NFLs High Viewership and Attractive Demos Drive Industry-Leading Ad Rates.12The NFL Rights Renewal Explainer.13II.NBA.24NBA is an Essential Franchise for ESPN and TNT.25NBA Rights Overview.27NBA Viewership Down Slightly Across All Networks.29NBA Games Remain a Compelling Advertising Draw.31III.Motorsports.32ShakeN Bake!Can FOX and NBC Return NASCAR to Glory?.33Motorsports Rights Overview.34NASCAR Viewership in Decline Since Mid-2000s.35Viewership in Decline,but Media Rights Keep Going Up.38Advertising Revenue Estimate.39IV.Formula 1.41Balancing Free,Pay,and Digital.42V.March Madness.48Its an Awesome Property Baby!.49March Madness Rights Overview.50Viewership Has Rebounded Under the Current Contract.52Advertising.54Long-Term Deal Provides CBS and Turner with Substantial Negotiating Leverage 55The 2010 Agreement in Retrospect/Looking Forward.56VI.MLB.57The Inside Baseball on MLB.58MLB Rights Overview.59Is Baseball in Decline?Depends on How You Look at It.62Advertising Rates Higher Despite Viewership Decline.64VII.Soccer.67Has the Sport of the Future Finally Arrived?.68MLS Rights Overview.71FIFA Rights Overview.76English Premier League Overview.793North America Equity Research18 July 2019Alexia S.Quadrani(1-212)622-UEFA Champions League Overview.81VIII.Esports.83Yes,Its For Real;A Primer to the Wild West of Sports.84Key Participants and Goals.88The Industry Challenges Ahead.91Overwatch League:Can Activision Utilize a Traditional Approach for Esports.92IX.WWE.96“Here Comes the Money!”WWE Set for Major Step-Up in Domestic Rights Fee.97WWEs Higher Domestic Rights Fees a Product of Industry and Company Changes.97Examining Raw and SmackDown from an Advertising Standpoint.101International Rights Deals.102X.NHL.107Will ESPN or FOX Skate to Where the Puck is Going?.108NHL Rights Overview.109Regular Season Viewership Up Slightly While Playoffs See Acceleration.110XI.Grand Slam Tennis.112Tennis Holds Serve on Cable.113Grand Slam Rights Domestic.114Grand Slam Rights International.115Tennis Viewership and the Serena Williams Factor.116Tennis Demographics and Advertising.117XII.The Drivers of Sports Ratings.119Its a Marathon,Not a Sprint;Taking the Long View on Sports Ratings.120Appendix:Historical Viewership Stats.1234North America Equity Research18 July 2019Alexia S.Quadrani(1-212)622-Key ThemesSports rights must be examined in proper context.While it would be easy to lump media rights together and rank them from best to worst in terms of direct advertising profitability,this ignores a myriad of other factors that should be considered.Distributor fees are the most obvious source of indirect value,but are only one of many.Sports provide a live,engaged audience that offers a crucial platform for broadcast and cable networks to promote non-sports programming,while contracts also hold hundreds of hours of incremental content including highlights or rights for branded shows,both of which are vital for sports dedicated networks and websites.Increasingly,services such as ESPN+,Bleacher Report,and DAZN are also snapping up live rights with a view to create long-term streaming platforms.The recent cycle of sports rights renewals was favorable for broadcast.Broadcast networks struck several deals for major sports rights,including the NFL,MLB,NHL,March Madness,and various motorsports,between 2010 and 2012.During that time,revenue from retrans and reverse comp fees was well below what it is today,and it was uncertain how much of a growth driver it would be going forward.As such,we believe the broadcast networks,relative to cable networks,were able to negotiate sports rights contracts that were significantly more favorable on a direct advertising basis.In the interim period,retrans and reverse comp fees have ramped significantly,largely driven in our opinion by these sports rights,providing the broadcast networks with significant additional value.ESPNs sports rights have their own unique factors.As covered in this report,we estimate ESPN generates direct advertising losses on some of its sports rights contracts.We note though that when examining the rights ESPN has acquired,investors should consider not just the games,but also the thousands of hours of branded studio shows and highlight footage bundled in.This ancillary content,along with the games,provides the network with a deep pool of programming that protects ESPNs brand and competitive position,and ultimately drives industry-high sub fees.The network has,in the past,been criticized for overbidding on sports rights(the NBA deal in particular),but we feel these actions demonstrated longer-term thinking.As the media landscape shifts,we believe more content provides ESPN with leverage and optionality,and has positioned it to successfully launch the ESPN+product.In the U.S.,sports rights continue to climb higher,while Europe has shownsigns of peaking.Domestically,sports rights inflation shows no indication of slowing.In November,Fox and the MLB agreed to a seven year deal at an estimated$729m AAV,which is a 1.4x step-up from the current contract expiring in 2021.The same month,MLB and DAZN reached a three year$100m AAV deal for the streaming service to create an NFL RedZone-like channel for baseball.And last June,WWE announced agreements with NBCU and Fox Sports that resulted in a 3.6x increase in its domestic fee.Meanwhile,sports rights in Europe are showing some signs of peaking.In June 2018,the Premier League completed the sale of UK game packages for three seasons beginning 2019-2020,and despite the inclusion of Amazon as a partner,the league will see an overall down renewal in aggregate.Tech companies test the waters,but weve still yet to see major exclusive deals.Amazons agreement for 20 Premier League matches and YouTubes deal for 13 MLB games are notable moves by tech companies into sports,but still fall short of predictions they will aggressively compete for major rights packages 5North America Equity Research18 July 2019Alexia S.Quadrani(1-212)622-held by legacy media firms.At this point,the digital platforms appear to still be in test mode when it comes to sports,trying to determine how viewers consume content and whether they can implement dynamic ad models live and at scale.Other challenges include maintaining high quality streams for large events and building up production resources and studio brands;solving for these issues we think will be crucial before leagues gain comfort handing over major content rights.6North America Equity Research18 July 2019Alexia S.Quadrani(1-212)622-Selected Sports ContractsTable 1:Selected Sports Rights ContractsSource:NFL,NBA,NASCAR,NCAA,MLB,Sports Business Daily,ESPN,J.P.Morgan estimates.Note:CBS,Disney,and Fox covered by Alexia Quadrani;AT&T,Comcast(NBC)and Verizon covered by Phil Cusick;Amazon covered by Doug Anmuth.EntityNetworkPackageAnnouncedStartExpiration Average Annual(m)Contract DurationTotal Value(m)NFLCBSAFC PackageDec 201120142022$1,0009 years$9,000FOXNFC PackageDec 201120142022$1,1009 years$9,900NBCSunday NightDec 201120142022$9509 years$8,550ESPNMonday NightSep 201120142021$1,9008 years$15,200FOXThursday Night-FOXJan 201820182022$6605 years$3,300AmazonThursday Night-DigitalApr 201820182019$652 years$130AT&T/DirecTVSunday TicketOct 201420152022$1,5008 years$12,000VerizonStreaming Mobile PhonesDec 201720182022$4505 years$2,250NBAABC/ESPN100 reg season gms;playoffs;finalsOct 201420162024$1,4309 years$12,870TNT64 reg season gms;playoffs;All-Star gmOct 201420162024$1,2309 years$11,070MLBESPNM/W/Su;Wild Card gm,TiebreakersAug 201220142021$7008 years$5,600Fox SportsSat;LDS,LCS,WS,All-Star gmOct 201220142021$5258 years$4,200Fox SportsDeal extension,games on FOX increase Nov 201820222028$7297 years$5,100TurnerSu;WC game;LDS,LCSOct 201220142021$3258 years$2,600DAZNLive shows that features look-ins to gamesNov 201820192021$1003 years$300Facebook6 national non-exclusive gamesMar 201920192019N/A1 yearN/AYouTube13 national exclusive gamesApr 201920192019N/A1 yearN/AMotorsportsFox SportsNASCAR:Sprint Cup;Xfinity;CampingOct 12/Aug 1320152024$38010 years$3,800NBCNASCAR:Sprint Cup;XfinityJul 201320152024$44010 years$4,400March MadnessCBS/TurnerCurrent deal-67 gamesApr 201020112024$77114 years$10,800CBS/TurnerDeal extensionApr 201620252032$1,1008 years$8,800NHLNBC100+reg games;Stanley Cup playoffsApril 201120112020$20010 years$2,000BAMTechCoverage of live out-of-market gamesAug 201520162022$1006 years$600ESPN+Over 180 games and on demand replaysApr 20182018N/AN/AN/AN/AOlympicsNBC2014-2020 Olympic CoverageJun 201120142020$1,0954 years$4,380NBC2022-2032 Olympic CoverageMay 201420212032$1,2756 years$7,650FIFA World CupFOX2 World CupsOct 201120152022$2132 years$425FOX1 World Cup Feb 201520232026$2341 year$234MLSESPN34+games,Sunday 5pmMay 201420152022$458 years$360FOX34+games,Sunday 7pmMay 201420152022$308 years$240Univision34+gamesMay 201420152022$158 years$120English Premiere LeagueNBC380 gamesAug 201520162021$1676 years$1,000UEFA Champions League Turner146 gamesFeb 201720182020$653 years$195Univision 146 gamesFeb 201720182020$353 years$105UFCESPN/ESPN+30 Fight Nights;12 PPV prelimsMay 201820192025$3007 years$2,100WWENBCURawJun 201820192024$2655 years$1,325Fox SportsSmackdownJun 201820192024$2055 years$1,025NBCURaw/SmackdownMay 201420142019$1305 years$650TennisESPNUS OpenMay 201320152025$7511 years$825ESPNWimbledonJune 201120122023$3312 years$400GolfFOXUS OpenAug 201320152026$10012 years$1,200NBCBritish OpenJun 201520162028$5013 years$650College SportsESPN/ABCPac-12 May 201120122023$12512 years$1,500FOXPac-12 May 201120122023$12512 years$1,500ESPN/ABCBig Ten Jun 201620162022$1906 years$1,140FOXBig Ten Apr 201620162022$2406 years$1,440BTNBig Ten Jun 201620072031$11225 years$2,800CBSBig Ten Basketball Championship Jun 201620162022$106 years$60ESPN/ABCACCJul 201620162035$24015 years$3,600CBSSECMay 201320092023$5515 years$825ESPN/ABCSECAug 200820092023$15015 years$2,250ESPN/ABCBig 12Mar 201220122024$10013 years$1,300FOXBig 12Mar 201220122024$9213 years$1,200FOXBig East BasketballFeb 201320132024$4212 years$500NBCNotre Dame University FootballApr 201320162025$1510 years$150EsportsTwitchOverwatch LeagueJan 201820182019$452 years$907North America Equity Research18 July 2019Alexia S.Quadrani(1-212)622-Table 2:Selected International Sports RightsSource:Company reports and J.P.Morgan estimates.EntityNetworksAnnouncedStartExpirationAverage Annual Contract DurationTotal ValueIPLStar India-Broadcast+DigitalSept.201720182022Rs 3,2705 yearsRs 16,347.5Star India-DigitalFeb 201520152017Rs 1013 yearsRs 303.0Sony-BroadcastMar.200920092017Rs 9119 yearsRs 8,200BCCIStar IndiaApr.201820182022Rs 1,2285 yearsRs 6,138Star IndiaApr.201820122017Rs 6426 yearsRs 3,851ICCStar IndiaOct.201420152023Rs 1,4858 yearsRs 11,880PGA TourDiscovery Jun 201820192020$167m12 years$2,000mPremier League-UK&IrelandSky SportsFeb.2018201920211,190m3 years3,570mBT SportFeb.201820192021295m3 years885mBT SportsJun 20182019202130m3 years90mAmazonJun 201820192021N/A3 yearsN/ASky SportsFeb.2015201620181,392m3 years4,176mBT SportFeb.201520162018320m3 years960mChampions League-UK&IrelandBT SportMar.201720182020 394m3 years1,182mBT SportNov.201320152017 299m3 years 897mBundesliga-GermanySky Sport/Discovery/ARDJun.2016201720201,160m4 years4,640mSky Sport/ARDApr.201220132016628m4 years2,512mBundesliga-UK&IrelandBT SportJun.201620172021N/A5 yearsN/ABT SportFeb.201420152016N/A2 yearsN/AItalian Serie ASky Italia/PerformJun.201820182020973m3 years2,919mSky Italia/MediasetJun.201420152017943m3 years2,829mSky Italia/MediasetSept.201120122014825m3 years2,475mItalian Serie A-InternationalIMGOct.201720182020 371m3 years1,113mMP&SilvaOct.201420152017 185m3 years555mOlympicsDiscovery-EurosportJun.201520182024 325m4 years1,300mAustralian Football LeagueFoxtel/Telstra/Seven NetworkAug.201520172022A$418m6 yearsA$2,508mFoxtel/Telstra/Seven NetworkApr.201120122016A$250m5 yearsA$1,250mNational Rugby LeagueFox Sports/Telstra/Nine NetworkNov.201520162020A$360m5 yearsA$1,800mFox Sports/Channel Nine NetworkAug.201220132017A$205m5 yearsA$1,025mCricket AustraliaFox Sports/Seven NetworkApr.201820182023A$200m6 yearsA$1,200mNine NetworkJun.201320132017A$118m5 yearsA$