J.P. 摩根-全球-宏观策略-全球宏观数据观察-2019.7.19-80页 (2).pdf

Economic ResearchJuly 19,2019Global Data Watch Fading better industry data absent validation from global PMI Consumption to come off its recent boil,but solid gains likely ECB to guide toward September ease but dovish surprise possible Next week:PMI up;US GDP growth dips(1.2%);Turkey,Russia easeMo better bluesThe first wave of June releases heightened growth concerns as our global manufacturing PMI and expectations index(MEI)fell to their lowest levels since 2012.However,incoming activity readings send a more positive signal.We noted last week that our capex nowcaster has been drifting higher.The initial round of June readings was even more upbeat as US employment re-bounded and the US and China each delivered strong manufacturing and retail sales gains this week.With the latest data pointing to global consumer goods spending expanding a boomy 4.5%annualized in 1H19,the implication is that the weak 0.8%annualized rise in factory output reflected a significant inven-tory adjustment that is ending as output picks up at midyear.While slower stockbuilding is likely a growth drag,we resist the notion that a rebound has begun.Monthly activity readings are volatile and it is a mistake to place significance on movements that are not validated in the global PMI(Figure 1).The June PMI output reading fell to a level pointing to a stall in industry at midyear,and survey details suggest that overall final goods de-mand growth is sluggish and gains in finished goods inventories have not moved materially lower(Figure 2).Output will ultimately follow final goods demand,and the 2H19 outlook points to a moderation along with continued divergence between businesses and house-holds.Global capex gains are already weak and slower nominal growth is de-pressing profits.With the May-June business sentiment slide adding insult to inju-ry,business spending likely will remain weak.We look for global capex(ex.Chi-na)to grow at a 1%ar in 2H19 and look for firms to slow the pace of inventory building.The picture for households is brighter as they are benefiting from solid labor income and wealth gains,along with fiscal ease and a purchasing power lift from falling inflation.However,we expect job growth to cool in the coming months,moderating consumer goods spending gains to a still solid 3%pace.Defending against the risk of a larger negative behavioral response by firms or households is the prime motivation for central bank easing.Expectations of-2.8-1.40.01.42.84.25.67.0464850525456581213141516171819DI,saFigure 1:Global mfg output and PMI%ch,3m,saarOutput PMIMfg outputSource:J.P.Morgan,Markit4748495051485052545613141516171819DI,sa;both scalesFigure 2:Global mfg PMISource:J.P.MorganFinished goods inventoryNew ordersContentsPotential beneficiaries of US-China trade war:Part 216Brexit:A unicorn with a lick of paint is still a unicorn19Australias ToT boom:Less fun the second time around23Global Economic Outlook Summary4Global Central Bank Watch6Nowcast of global growth7Selected recent research from J.P.Morgan Economics9The J.P.Morgan View:Markets10Data WatchesUnited States25Euro area33Japan37Canada40Mexico42Brazil44Argentina45Colombia and Peru47United Kingdom49Emerging Europe51South Africa&SSA54EMEA EM focus56Australia and New Zealand57China,Hong Kong,and Taiwan59Korea62ASEAN64India67Asia focus69Regional Data Calendars72Bruce Kasman(1-212)834-JPMorgan Chase Bank NAJoseph Lupton(1-212)834-JPMorgan Chase Bank NA2Economic ResearchGlobal Data WatchJuly 19,2019JPMorgan Chase Bank NABruce Kasman(1-212)834-Joseph Lupton(1-212)834-easing have already borne fruit in the form of rising asset prices and easier credit conditions.Central bank signals are set to translate into a wave of action as we project rate cuts from 17 central banks this quarter.We are becoming more confident that policymaker supports will prove successful and recent news reduces our assessment of recession risk.But the storm unleashed by a negative sen-timent shock hasnt passed and we expect factory output gains to remain stuck at a 1%pace during 2H19.Consistent with this view,we expect next weeks flash manufacturing PMI to move modestly higher.To convince us a sustained recovery is taking hold,the survey should send a decisive positive de-mand signal in the form of a rise in the ratio of new orders to finished goods inventories toward 1.05a development we do not expect to see until late this year.A pivotal ECB meetingIt has been clear for some time that the ECBs policy stance is not consistent with achieving its inflation objective.Chief Economist Lanes recent analysis points to a need for a 20bp rate cut,1.25 trillion QE,350bn of TLTROs,and additional forward guidance to reverse this years erosion in the 2021 forecast.These estimates do not include steps to insure against global growth risks.Despite this backdrop,we expect incremental action next week:a reintroduction of the“or low-er”signal on rates;an intent to reassess the stance in Septem-ber;and a signal that changes to QEs“legal”limits and the imposition of a tiered reserve charging system are possible.This should set the stage for an expected 10bp deposit rate cut in September alongside a six-month extension of the calendar guidance to end-2020.The size of the challenges facing the ECB makes a rate cut a genuine possibility next week as well as guidance toward a September QE restart.In his Sintra speech,Draghi raised the prospect of another“whatever it takes”moment.However,a number of governors remain uncomfortable with aggressive actions and look content to show movement toward their in-flation objective,even as they fall short on needed steps.There are also broader questions about the ECB operating framework.In Sintra,Draghi hinted at a make-up strategy and the ECB seems to be thinking more broadly about its inflation objective.We can see the ECB eventually replacing the cur-rent“below but close to”2%with a symmetric target of 2%.But,this is likely a slow-moving process and one that is un-likely to result in an explicit make-up strategy.We also do not expect the arrival of Christine Lagarde in November to accel-erate it much.Robust demand leads production in CEEThe CEE economies have weathered Germanys industrial malaise rather well over the past year,and this continued through midyear.The industrial links between CEE and Ger-many are large through an extensive supply chain,but final demand for CEE is much more broadly sourced.At the same time,robust domestic demand in the region is boosting pro-duction.As a result,factory output in the CEE has beenboomy overall(Figure 3).In Hungary and Poland,IP surged roughly 13%ar in 1Q followed by above-5%gains last quar-ter.Industrial production rebounded sharply in the Czech Re-public last quarter after contracting earlier in the year.In terms of domestic demand,retail sales have been noisy but have also boomed through 1H19 across the region.Investment has been more uneven,driven heavily by fiscal and crucial EU funding flows.Czech fiscal accounts suggest increased capex,whereas Hungary construction data posted a significant contraction in April-May,suggesting a turning point in the countrys capex boom.Brexit:The Battle of Boris beginsNext week likely will see Boris Johnson installed as the UKs prime minister.As the Commons breaks for summer recess,we expect he will announce a pro-Brexit cabinet,redouble preparations for a no-deal Brexit,and set about convincing his EU counterparts to remove the Irish backstop from the With-drawal Agreement.He will make little progress on the latter and the post-recess agenda looks set to be dominated by the rising likelihood of a no-deal Brexit.MPs made a preemptive strike this week,passing a law ensuring that the Commons would be recalled for at least five days during October even if the PM suspends Parliament in an attempt to force through a“no-deal”Brexit.While we still see odds of a“no-deal”Brex-it at 25%,a more likely outcome is for the Commons to push back and force PM Johnson to call for a general election to seek a mandate for the type of Brexit the current Commons is preventing him from delivering.The EU would likely agree that the end-October Article 50 deadline would be moved(we 959799101103105107109Jan 18Apr 18Jul 18Oct 18Jan 19Apr 19Figure 3:Industrial output in Germany and the CEEIndex,Jan 2018=100 Source:EurostatPLCZHUGermany3Economic ResearchGlobal Data WatchJuly 19,2019JPMorgan Chase Bank NABruce Kasman(1-212)834-Joseph Lupton(1-212)834-guess to mid-January)to allow a November general election to take place.China stabilization looking more likelyChinas 2Q GDP and June activity readings should be taken as positive.Were fading the headlines over Chinas GDP posting its slowest oya gain in a quarter century.Instead,we focus on the stronger-than-expected momentum the June ac-tivity data implied.Overall GDP growth was reported to have slowed to 5.9%q/q,saar last quarter,a touch softer than our 6.1%forecast.However,industrial production increased 0.8%in June(based on our seasonal adjustment),which leaves the monthly average gain at 6%annualized in 1H19.This pace is associated with GDP growth at 6.7%ar and,on net,suggests solid momentum in activity heading into 3Q.In addition,re-tail sales also increased a healthy 1%in June(0.3%in volume terms).Similarly,fixed asset investment was stronger than expected last month.On balance,the China data point to strong domestic demand(supported by policy)that is being held back by a net trade drag.Despite the solid June momentum,we see growth in 2H19 stabilizing around its 2Q pace of roughly 6%.The external sector and manufacturing FAI will remain drags.Even under our status-quo assumption,the trade war is damaging business sentiment and investment.We expect policy supports to just offset these drags.Fiscal supports enacted in recent months are still working through the system,while infrastructure spending will cushion the slowing in private sector FAI growth.We expect the PBOC will continue to use various liquidity operations to guide lower key financial interest rates,but this does not necessarily mean that the PBOC will cut OMO policy rates.Downside risk in Japan on softer consumerAlthough we revised up our 2Q forecast for Japans GDP growth by 0.5%-pt to 0.25%ar,downside risks to the outlook are building.Fears around the US-China trade war as well as geopolitical tensions with Korea have damped business sen-timent similar to the rest of the world.This week,the Reuters Tankan survey of manufacturing sentiment continued its downturn through July.However,in contrast to elsewhere,consumer sentiment in Japan has also slid sharply(Figure 4).The hard data are volatile in light of the long Golden Week holiday but consumer spending does not seem to be tracking a strong bounce ahead the October VAT hike as was seen ahead of the 2014 and 1997 tax hikes.While exports moved up modestly in June,further signs of soft domestic demand could be seen in surprisingly weak importsespecially consump-tion-related goods such as computers and smart phones.Wave of policy cuts coming across EMAfter months of building dovish talk and shifting biases,we expect central bank rate cuts to pick up pace in the next cou-ple of months.In advance of G3 action,EM central banks are already on the move.This weeks 25bp rate cut from the Bank of Korea came sooner than we had expected,prompted by a downshift in the outlook for growth and inflation.The cut,along with a dovish statement,reflects a shift in the BoKs reaction function toward growth and away from financial stability concerns.We expect one more 25bp ease in October but the timing and magnitude of rate cuts depends on global growth and geopolitical developments,including Japans tech ex-ports restrictions.Bank Indonesia eased its policy rate as expected,noting room for further easing owing to persistent headwinds to growth and low inflation.The signaling is consistent with our forecast for another 25bp cut in September.In Singa-pore,a sharp June slide in trade activity reported this week adds to the downbeat signals on growth.While our baseline call is for an easing in the SGD NEER policy slope early next year,the odds are rising for a move as early as Octo-ber.Elsewhere in EM Asia,we continue to see August cuts in India and the Philippines,followed by cuts from Thai-land and Malaysia in September.The SARB cut its policy rate 25bp this week but the bank took steps to signal it is not embarking on an easing cycle.The Quarterly Projection Model trimmed its forward guid-ance only marginally and the MPC went to great lengths to stress upside risks to inflation owing to the financing needs of state-owned entities.We nevertheless pencil in a further 25bp rate cut in November as we envisage weaker growth and inflation than the SARB projects.Editor:Gabriel de Kock(1-212)622-6718 -1.5-1.0-0.50.00.51.01.5101214161820Source:J.P.MorganGlobalex.JapanJapanStd.dev.from historical averageFigure 4:Consumer sentiment4Economic ResearchGlobal economic outlook sum-maryJuly 19,2019JPMorgan Chase Bank NACarlton Strong(1-212)834-Joseph Lupton(1-212)834-Global economic outlook summary Real GDPReal GDPConsumer prices%over a year ago%over previous period,saar%over a year ago2018201920204Q181Q192Q193Q194Q191Q204Q182Q194Q192Q20United States2.9 2.4 1.7 2.2 3.1 1.2 1.5 1.8 1.8 2.2 1.8 2.0 2.2Canada1.91.41.50.30.42.81.51.51.62.02.12.02.1Latin America1.3 0.8 2.1 0.5-0.7 1.52.31.92.1 4.0 4.0 3.4 3.5Argentina-2.5-1.22.5-5.0-0.94.80.40.03.047.456.340.329.4Brazil1.1 0.7 2.0 0.4-0.6 0.4 2.4 2.2 2.0 4.1 4.3 3.4 3.7Chile4.03.12.95.3-0.15.63.54.02.52.41.92.63.2Colombia2.6 2.8 3.0 2.8 0.0 4.5 3.5 3.2 3.0 3.3 3.3 3.7 3.5Ecuador1.4-0.6-0.90.3-3.81.5-2.0-2.0-2.00.30.30.20.3Mexico2.0 0.7 1.7 0.1-0.7-0.2 2.0 1.6 1.9 4.8 4.4 3.7 3.4Peru4.03.33.610.4-2.01.58.04.02.0 2.12.62.42.6Uruguay2.0 0.7 1.6-0.9 0.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 2.0 8.0 8.0 7.8 8.2Venezuela-25.0.Asia/Pacific4.84.44.44.64.64.44.43.84.61.92.02.12.6Japan0.8 0.70.4 1.8 2.2 0.31.0-2.5 1.5 0.9 0.8 0.3 0.2Australia2.81.93.00.91.61.92.93.82.81.81.41.61.9New Zealand2.9 2.4 2.6 2.5 2.2 2.3 2.8 2.4 2.8 1.9 1.6 1.6 1.8EM Asia5.95.55.55.55.45.65.45.45.52.22.42.63.2China6.6 6.26.1 6.1 6.85.95.9 5.9 6.1 2.2 2.62.8 3.6India6.86.47.06.44.86.56.77.07.22.62.93.53.8Ex China/India3.7 3.1 3.3 3.5 2.3 4.3 3.4 3.2 3.1 2.0 1.6 1.8 2.0 Hong Kong3.02.52.5-2.05.34.24.22.82.02.62.73.03.3 Indonesia5.2 4.9 4.9 5.5 4.5 4.7 4.7 4.8 4.8 3.2 3.0 2.8 2.5 Korea2.72.22.63.8-1.55.52.52.02.51.80.91.21.8 Malaysia4.7 4.3 4.0 5.2 4.4 4.1 3.8 3.8 3.9 0.3 0.7 1.2 1.8 Philippines6.25.76.07.33.95.76.66.65.75.92.81.52.9 Singapore3.1 1.7 2.0-0.8 3.8 2.0 2.0 1.5 1.2 0.5 1.4 1.6 1.8 Taiwan2.61.71.71.22.31.71.41.61.70.50.81.91.3 Thailand4.1 3.2 3.4 3.8 4.1 3.5 4.0 4.1 2.8 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.4Western Europe1.81.21.51.21.70.61.31.51.72.01.51.11.3Euro area1.9 1.1 1.6 1.0 1.6 0.8 1.3 1.5 1.8 1.9 1.4 1.0 1.1Germany1.50.61.50.11.7-0.51.31.51.82.11.61.11.3France1.7 1.3 1.6 1.7 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.5 1.8 2.2 1.3 1.2 1.4Italy0.7-0.10.7-0.40.5-1.00.30.