J.P. 摩根-全球-宏观策略-全球宏观数据观察-2019.5.10-80页.pdfVIP免费

EconomicResearchMay10,2019GlobalDataWatchRenewedUS-ChinatradewarfurtherthreatensstrugglinggoodssectorTradewarcouldholdglobalcapexgrowthtozerothisyear,anddampChinaGDPby0.8%-ptthrough2020ConflictescalationalsowouldamplifyeasingbiasacrosstheglobeNextweek:USAprretsales(cont.0.3%)andIP(mfg0%),ChinaApractivity(IP:-1.6),EMUMarIP(-0.2%)JustwhenyouthoughtitwassafeCentraltoouroutlookisaviewthatasetofheadwindsfacingtheglobalgoodssectoraroundtheturnoftheyearwasdiminishingandthatthisprocesswouldpromotearecoveryinbusinesssentiment.Withthetransitoryshocksfadingandlingeringuncertaintiesresolving—aidedbyastrongpolicyshiftbeginningwiththeFedgoingonhold—welookedforacyclicallifttotakeholdaroundmidyear.Thisweekhasbeenareminderthatthefadingoftransi-toryshockshasyettotranslateintoamorefundamentalliftthatsupportsacyclicalpickupin2H19.TradeflowsfromAsiaarerecovering,buttheim-provementslackdynamism.TheEuroarealookstohavereboundedfromtheveryweakgrowthin2H18butthisweek’sindustrialdatasuggestthebouncehasbeenshort-livedandpointtodownsideriskinthecurrentquarter.MostconcerningisthattheUS-Chinatradenegotiation,whichjustlastweekTreas-urySecretaryMnuchinindicatedwas“initsfinallap,”tookadecisiveturnfortheworse.Itistooearlytocountenanceforecastrevisionsasthelatestdevel-opmentscouldverywellbelast-minutenegotiatingtactics,butitisimportanttoreassessthepossibleimpactofafull-blownUS-Chinatradewar.Beneaththesurfaceofdiminishingheadwindsandanintensifyingtradewarisacautiouslyskepticalbusinesssector.Startinginmid-2018,expectationsoffutureconditionsbegantoslideevenasfirmsmaintainedamoreupbeatas-sessmentofcurrentconditions(Figure1).Bylatelastyear,sentimentwasfallingmorebroadly.Businessesrespondedtothesefearswithslowergrowthininvestment.Althoughemploymentgainsremainclosetocyclehighs,globalcapex(ex.China)appearstohavestalledafterreachingashort-livedexpan-sionhighinlate2017.Moreover,thedeteriorationinbusinesssentimentandcapitalspendingcontinues.Ourlatesttrackingshowsglobalbusinessconfi-dencedeteriora...