J.P. 摩根-全球-宏观策略-全球宏观数据观察-2019.3.1-92页.pdfVIP免费

EconomicResearchMarch1,2019GlobalDataWatch1Q19growthlooksweak,butcaseformidyearbottomisbuildingLookingforTLTROanddovishguidanceshiftatAprilECBmeetingPolandjoinsthefiscaleasingclubNextweek:SolidUSjobs;ECBlowersforecasts;ChinaNPCmeetsSnapoutofit,DMconsumerAgainstthebackdropofapersistentslideinglobalgrowthmomentum,thisweekdeliveredtwonotableupsidedatasurprises.First,USGDPwasreportedtohaveincreasedata2.6%arin4Q18—afullpercentagepointfasterthanweexpected.Second,China’smanufacturingPMIrebounded1.6ptsinFebruary.AlongwithincreasesinotherEMeconomies,ourglobaloutputPMIstabi-lizedlastmonthdespitepreviouslyreportedsharpDMdeclines(Figure1).Thisnewstempersdownsideriskbutdoesnotalterourviewthattheglobaleconomyhasslippedtoabelow-potentialpaceatyear-end,withdownwardmomentumconcentratedintheUS.TheupsidesurpriseinUSgrowthlastquartercamefromstrongbusinesscapexandinventorybuildingalongsideastablenettradecontribution.Thelatestmonthlyreports—onfactoryorders,internationaltrade,andcapitalspendingintentions—pointtoasubstantialdecelerationfromeachofthese.AndwhileglobalPMIoutputstabilizedlastmonthatalevelconsistentwith1%factoryoutputgains,activityreadingsshowglobaloutputcontractingatclosetoa3%arinthethreemonthsthroughJanuary.Whileweexpectbusinessspendingtoremainweakthrough1H19,holdingbackthemanufacturingsector,welookforlimitedspillovertojobgrowthandservice-sectoroutput.SupportforthisviewshouldcomenextweekasweexpectUSjobstorise175,000inFebruaryandtheglobalservicesectorPMIoutputreadingtostephigher,pushinguptheall-industryreadingtoitshighestlevelsinceOctober.Forglobalgrowthtobottomaroundmidyear,consumersneedtorespondtosolidlaborincomegainsandthisquarter’ssharpslideininflation.GlobalCPIinflationisontracktofalltoa1.2%arin1Q19,materiallyboostinghouse-holdpurchasingpower.Whilethisnormallytranslatesintostrongerconsump-tiongains,timesarenotnormal.Asharpslideinequitymarketsaroundtheturnoftheyearhascombinedwithasetofpoliticalstresspoints(US4850525456582016201720182019DI,saFigure1:Globalma...