J.P. 摩根-全球-宏观策略-全球宏观数据观察-2019.3.1-92页.pdf

Economic ResearchMarch 1,2019Global Data Watch 1Q19 growth looks weak,but case for midyear bottom is building Looking for TLTRO and dovish guidance shift at April ECB meeting Poland joins the fiscal easing club Next week:Solid US jobs;ECB lowers forecasts;China NPC meetsSnap out of it,DM consumerAgainst the backdrop of a persistent slide in global growth momentum,this week delivered two notable upside data surprises.First,US GDP was reported to have increased at a 2.6%ar in 4Q18a full percentage point faster than we expected.Second,Chinas manufacturing PMI rebounded 1.6pts in February.Along with increases in other EM economies,our global output PMI stabi-lized last month despite previously reported sharp DM declines(Figure 1).This news tempers downside risk but does not alter our view that the global economy has slipped to a below-potential pace at year-end,with downward momentum concentrated in the US.The upside surprise in US growth last quarter came from strong business capex and inventory building alongside a stable net trade contribution.The latest monthly reportson factory orders,international trade,and capital spending intentionspoint to a substantial deceleration from each of these.And while global PMI output stabilized last month at a level consistent with 1%factory output gains,activity readings show global output contracting at close to a 3%ar in the three months through January.While we expect business spending to remain weak through 1H19,holding back the manufacturing sector,we look for limited spillover to job growth and service-sector output.Support for this view should come next week as we expect US jobs to rise 175,000 in February and the global service sector PMI output reading to step higher,pushing up the all-industry reading to its highest level since October.For global growth to bottom around midyear,consumers need to respond to solid labor income gains and this quarters sharp slide in inflation.Global CPI inflation is on track to fall to a 1.2%ar in 1Q19,materially boosting house-hold purchasing power.While this normally translates into stronger consump-tion gains,times are not normal.A sharp slide in equity markets around the turn of the year has combined with a set of political stress points(US 4850525456582016201720182019DI,saFigure 1:Global manufacturing output PMISource:J.P.MorganEMDM0246810-202468Jan 17Jul 17Jan 18Jul 18%3m,saar,both axesFigure 2:Global retail sales volumesSource:J.P.MorganDMEMContentsUS:Revenge of the nerdsthe Feds next generation16Durables spending not yet a threat to DM business cycle18UK:When does Brextension become Brecession?21Euro area:Services price inflation now more volatile23Euro area:Weaker export growth reflects a mix of factors25Global Economic Outlook Summary4Global Central Bank Watch6Nowcast of global growth7Selected recent research from J.P.Morgan Economics9The J.P.Morgan View:Markets10Data WatchesUnited States27Euro area35Japan41Canada45Mexico47Brazil49Argentina51Colombia53United Kingdom55Emerging Europe57South Africa&SSA61MENA63EMEA EM focus65Australia and New Zealand66China,Hong Kong,and Taiwan68Korea72ASEAN74India78Asia focus80Regional Data Calendars84Our Special Report Overcoming the Euro areas demographic challenge was published on February 26,and is now available on our website.Bruce Kasman(1-212)834-JPMorgan Chase Bank NADavid Hensley(1-212)834-JPMorgan Chase Bank NAJoseph Lupton(1-212)834-JPMorgan Chase Bank NA2Economic ResearchGlobal Data WatchMarch 1,2019JPMorgan Chase Bank NABruce Kasman(1-212)834-David Hensley(1-212)834-Joseph Lupton(1-212)834-government shutdown,Brexit,yellow vest protests)to weigh on consumer confidence.While EM consumers appear to be responding positively to these developments,DM consumers took a significant step back in December(Figure 2).Real re-tail spending fell by more than 1%m/m,sa in the US,UK,Euro area,and Scandinavia and dropped 0.5%in Japan.We fade this synchronized retrenchment by consumers,rec-ognizing the inherent year-end noise.European January read-ings support this view having bounced back to retrace almost the entire December slide.While the delayed US January con-sumer readings may remain depressed by the effects of the shutdown and bad weather,there are encouraging signs that spending will eventually rebound.Equity markets have rallied and US tax refunds picked up smartly last week and are now in line with last years pace.In all,we look for global retail sales volumes to grow at a near-4%ar this quarter,more than a percentage point faster than in 2H18.Pivoting toward the ECBFed rhetoric continues to reinforce its pivot toward an infla-tion averaging framework that will formalize tolerance for an overshoot of the 2%target.In their latest speeches,both Vice Chair Clarida and New York Fed president Williams empha-sized that persistent inflation undershoots should not be ig-nored,particularly as they can drag down inflation expecta-tions.Although US inflation has hovered close to 2%in re-cent years,and inflation expectations still look anchored,these concerns remain relevant as the Fed navigates through a mature expansion and the specter of the effective lower bound looms large.Substantial persistent inflation undershoots are far more pressing for the ECB and BoJ.For the BoJ,medium-term inflation expectations have moved lower in recent years as its commitment to raising inflation in a timely manner has waned.For the ECB,a year of subpar growth and core infla-tion stuck at 1%raises the risk of eroding credibility.As we look to next weeks ECB meeting President Draghi will be under increasing pressure to act,as the staff is likely to make a significant downward revision to their growth and inflation forecasts for 2019(Figure 3).Growth this year is likely to be revised down from 1.7%oya to 1.3%,while we expect core inflation to be revised down from 1.4%to 1.3%(with risks skewed to 1.2%).Although Draghi is unlikely to pivot next week,he should provide hints that a further easing is now being considered.We expect the ECB to announce action on two fronts at the April meeting.First,we look for a three-year TLTRO open to all banks,allowing them to both roll over existing TLTRO loans and borrow new funds.We also expect the ECB to change its forward guidance,from on hold“through the sum-mer”to on hold“through 2019.”Accordingly,we have pushed back our forecast for the first 15bp hike in the deposit rate from December this year to March 2020.US-China trade war tail risk fadesThe US-China trade dispute has been a material downside tail risk to the outlook for over a year.While we had envisaged the trade war to intensify later this year,risks have been fad-ing since the G-20 meeting last November.We formally changed our forecast to a continuation of the status quo last week and the latest developments affirm this change.Accord-ing to the US Trade Representatives office,US tariff increas-es scheduled for March 2 will be suspended“until further notice,”while reports point to a Trump-Xi meeting to sign an agreement in late March.Common ground is being found on a number of issues related to increasing Chinese imports to re-duce the bilateral trade imbalance.However,there is still a divide over the enforcement of intellectual property protec-tions that needs to be bridged.Notably,the issue of industrial policy has moved to the background,replaced with a renewed focus on currency policy(specifically,China becoming more transparent and agreeing to not competitively devalue).With trade-war risks fading,next weeks China NPC meeting will be important to watch.We do not look for a shift in the policy stance,expecting the augmented fiscal deficit to rise to 11.5%of GDP in 2019 and a 2%-pt pickup in TSF credit growth.Our 2019 outlook for China had envisioned these considerable policy supports would just offset the trade war drags,allowing GDP growth to stabilize slightly above 6%this year.A key question is whether continued policy stimulus in the face of fading trade war risks poses upside risk to growth.One potential offset is that we no longer see signifi-cant currency depreciation but rather see USD/CNY stabiliz-ing at 6.65 through year-end.0.51.01.52.02.59904091419%oyaFigure 3:Euro area core inflationSource:J.P.MorganCurrent ECB staffforecast3Economic ResearchGlobal Data WatchMarch 1,2019JPMorgan Chase Bank NABruce Kasman(1-212)834-David Hensley(1-212)834-Joseph Lupton(1-212)834-Asia bears brunt of industrial spasmThe downward spasm in global industry owes heavily to a sharp downshift in business capex growth.Asia is ground zero for the industrial sector tumble in recent months.Outside of China and India,Asian industrial production slumped 15.4%ar in the three months through January,its worst out-turn since the global financial crisis(not counting the 2011 Japanese earthquake;Figure 4).The decline is broadly based but punctuated by a reported 3.8%dive in Japanese IP last month.In response,we lower our Japan 1Q GDP growth forecast to-0.5%ar.The latest news suggests trade and pro-duction continue to struggle.Korea and Vietnam reported additional steep monthly drops in exports of near 8%and 5%in February.We expect declines from China next week.The PMIs for the region are also weak,though send a less alarm-ing signal.This weeks reported move up in the Chinese Mar-kit PMI is particularly encouraging,notwithstanding the drop in the NBS reading.Brexit:Grinding everybody downPM May was forced this week to promise a second Commons vote on“the deal”by March 12,followed by votes on whether to leave with no deal or extend Article 50 if the deal is again rejected.We look for a“breakthrough”in the UK-EU nego-tiations allowing Attorney General Cox to declare that the backstop could not become indefinite.Even so,we doubt May can achieve victory at this stage.Brexiteers will likely dispute Coxs view and May has yet to build needed support among backbench Labour MPs.A two-to three-month extension of Article 50 appears likely with May securing passage of the deal by early April.Further Brexit delays prolong the uncertainty weighing heavi-ly on UK business decisions.One measure of business confi-dence collapsed in February,and the latest surveys indicate that caution on spending is spreading from investment to hir-ing decisions.We still expect solid real income growth to prevent the UK from falling into recession.But the recent slide in UK growth to 1%looks likely to persist.We will re-visit our forecasts next week after seeing the remaining Feb-ruary PMIs.Venezuela saga persists,with upside for oil The Maduro government continues to cling to power despite the high-profile efforts of de jure interim President Guaid and his US and regional allies.Guaids amnesty offers have induced a trickle of military defections but the top brass re-main loyal to Maduro.Guaids planned return to Venezuela from his unauthorized visit to Colombia and Brazil could lead to his arrest,potentially ratcheting up tension even further.In this regard,the US administration may want to respond to evidence that Venezuela has been able to divert crude oil sales from the US to Europe and Asia,particularly India.The next page in the playbook could be to discourage third parties from buying Venezuelan oil,similar to how the US handled the situation with Iran.This could have an even stronger impact on output,which remains above 1mbd,and in turn keep sup-ply pressure on global oil prices.Poland moves to ease fiscal policyTaking a page out of the US fiscal playbook,Poland is em-barking on a fiscal expansion in the later stages of its expan-sion.The senior leadership of Polands ruling PiS party has unveiled a major fiscal stimulus package worth around 2%of GDP.While the motivation may be in part political(European elections in May,parliamentary elections in November,presi-dential next year),most measures are permanent and will im-pact the budget for years to come.We assume that once the election passes,some of the pledges will be watered down and possibly some revenue measures announced.Still,we now see the fiscal deficit widening to 2.7%of GDP,from 2.2%by 2020.Such level of stimulus added at the peak of the econom-ic growth cycle will be hard to reverse and leaves the budget vulnerable come the next cyclical downturn.For monetary policy,the announcement is likely to suppress the NBPs slight easing bias,but wont be enough for a frontloading of tightening given the low level of inflation.Editor:Gabriel de Kock(1-212)622-6718 -18-12-60612184648505254201420152016201720182019DI,saFigure 4:Asia ex China/India manufacturing PMI and IP%3m,saar.W/Jan trackingSource:J.P.MorganIPOutput PMI4Economic ResearchGlobal economic outlook sum-maryMarch 1,2019JPMorgan Chase Bank NADavid Hensley(1-212)834-Carlton Strong(1-212)834-Joseph Lupton(1-212)834-Global economic outlook summary Real GDPReal GDPConsumer prices%over a year ago%over previous period,saar%over a year ago2018201920203Q184Q181Q192Q193Q194Q192Q184Q182Q194Q19United States2.92.31.8 3.4 2.61.5 2.3 1.8 1.8 2.7 2.2 1.4 1.6Canada1.81.51.72.00.41.01.82.22.32.32.02.02.0Latin America1.21.72.31.40.01.6 3.53.0 2.7 3.5 4.0 3.7 3.5Argentina-2.5-1.22.6-2.7-8.2-0.16.04.03.027.147.350.229.7Brazil1.12.12.5 2.20.51.8 3.43.2 2.8 3.3 4.1 3.7 3.4Chile3.93.53.01.13.54.04.24.03.82.22.83.33.5Colombia2.7 3.42.63.22.42.8 4.5 3.5 3.5 3.2 3.3 3.5 3.7Ecuador1.1-0.2-0.83.6-2.51.0-1.5-2.0-1.0-0.80.30.80.7Mexico2.0 1.5 1.7 2.41.00.8 2.0 1.8 2.0 4.6 4.8 4.2 3.9Peru4.03.93.6-3.17.04.54.04.04.00.92.12.62.4Uruguay2.1 1.9 1.9-0.1 0.5 2.0 3.0 4.0 1.0 7.3 7.4 7.8 7.2Venezuela-10.01.02.028250600000.Asia/Pacific4.84.44.53.64.64.24.75.03.92.01.91.92.0Japan0.7 0.30.7-2.6 1.4-0.51.52.5-3.5 0.6 0.9 0.4 0.3Australia3.02.62.71.02.83.02.62.52.92.11.81.62.0New Zealand2.8 2.5 2.6 1.3 2.0 2.9 2.6 2.5 2.4 1.5 1.9 1.8 1.7EM Asia6.05.65.75.35.65.55.65.95.82.32.22.32.3China6.6 6.2 6.2 6.0 6.1 5.9 6.2 6.4 6.2 1.8 2.2 2.4 2.2India7.37.27.46.86.76.97.17.57.74.82.62.93.8Ex China/India3.73.3 3.5 2.8 3.73.63.3 3.6 3.6 2.0 2.0 1.8 1.9 Hong Kong3.02.72.60.4-1.27.53.52.82.0 2.12.62.83.0 Indonesia5.2 4.9 4.9 5.0 5.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.8 3.3 3.2 3.0 2.8 Korea2.72.72.62.33.92.02.62.92.91.51.81.51.5 Malaysia4.7 4.4 4.3 6.7 5.7 4.5 4.3 4.3 4.3 1.3 0.3 1.3 1.8 Philippines6.26.05.96.16.46.16.15.76.14.85.93.32.1 Singapore3.2 2.0 3.0 1.4 1.4 3.6 1.0 2.8 3.0 0.3 0.5 1.4 1.6 Taiwan2.61.52.01.91.50.91.92.12.11.70.50.31.6 Thailand4.1 3.3 3.8-1.3 3.3 4.1 3.5 4.5 4.5 1.3 0.8 1.2 1.3Western Europe1.81.41.70.91.01.61.51.61.81.92.01.61.4Euro area1.8 1.3 1.7 0.6 0.8 1.8 1.5 1.5 1.8 1.7 1.9 1.41.2Germany1.51.31.7-0.80.12.81.81.51.81.92.11.31.1France1.5 1.2 1.7 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.3 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.2 1.2 1.1Italy0.8-0.30.8-0.5-0.9-0.80.00.50.81.01.51.11.0Spain2.5 2.3 1.9 2.2 2.8 2.3 2.3 2.0 2.0 1.8 1.8 1.01.1Norway2.52.62.11.53.72.52.52.32.32.43.42.81.7Sweden2.4 1.81.7-0.44.71.01.81.81.8 1.9 2.1 2.0 2.3United Kingdom1.41.51.82.50.71.01.52.32.02.42.32.32.0EMEA EM3.0 1.8 2.4 1.20.7 0.9 2.3 3.1 3.3 4.6 7.1 7.0 5.4Czech Republic3.02.62.92