J.P. 摩根-欧洲-汽车与汽车零部件行业-2019年8月全球汽车产业市场状况更新-2019.8.28-35页.pdf

Europe Equity Research28 August 2019 Global AutosState of the market:August19 European AutosJose M Asumendi AC(44-20)7742-Bloomberg JPMA ASUMENDI J.P.Morgan Securities plcAkshat Kacker(44-20)7134-J.P.Morgan Securities plcSarth J Patel(91-22)6157-J.P.Morgan India Private LimitedSee page 32 for analyst certification and important disclosures,including non-US analyst disclosures.J.P.Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports.As a result,investors should be aware that thefirm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment Halfway through Q3,we are seeing sustained reductions in demand levels across the globe.China and Europe have been the core drivers of earnings downgrades across the sector and we are yet to see an inflection point in these end markets.In return,OEMs and suppliers are shifting focus to drive cost control initiatives and optimize production capacity in the sustained low volume conditions.As various macro factors continue to weigh on demand,we look at the state of key end markets,i.e.China,Europe,North America,Brazil and Russia in our August Market update:Overall sales momentum of the Chinese car market is developing weaker than expected.Wholesale demand is down 13%YTD coupled with a 15%YTD cut to production volumes.Pricing power has deteriorated across the market and inventory levels have continued to rise.Our house view remains that a previously expected inflection point in August may be pushed back to Q4,as the low base kicks in and the China VI pre-buy effect eases out leading to a low single-digit rebound.European car demand.In July19,sales in the five key Western European(WE)markets(80%of EU15+EFTA demand)were down 5.3%y/y,driven by Spain(-15%),UK(-8.3%),France(-6.1%)and Italy(-0.7%).Sales in Germany were flat y/y.Year to July19,demand is estimated to be down 3%y/y in WE.Pricing power is showing signs of sequential improvement in July/Aug19.Our August channel checks indicate a 130bps sequential decrease in incentive levels on average among the German premium carmakers and 10bps decrease across European volume OEMs US July19 auto volumes down 2.3%y/y(adj.)US SAAR came in at 16.9m units in July19,flat y/y,in line with BBG consensus of 16.9m and slightly ahead of JPMe of 16.8m units.July marked the fourth month in FY19 in which the SAAR has tracked below the 17m level,in line with JPMe and market expectations of a modest slowdown compared to the robust incentive-fueled growth seen last year.Year to July19 volumes were down 1.5%y/y.Incentive spending across the industry increased by 2.2%m/m to$3,911,compared to$3,826 in Jun19.EM watch Brazil remains robust,while Russia has been declining.Brazils year to July19 volumes were up 11%y/y,driven by robust momentum across PCs and LCVs.Volumes were up 12%y/y in Q2 and July19.In Russia,year to July volumes are down 2.4%y/y.Car sales declined by 2.4%y/y in July19,following a 0.3%y/y decline in Q1 and 4.2%y/y decline in Q2.Retail demand has been softening following the 2%VAT rate hikes introduced in January and a pullback in auto subsidies.HD trucks outperform on digital tachograph pre-buy.HD truck registrations in Q2 increased by 24%y/y,with 104.8k new vehicles registered,bringing the YTD growth up 13.8%y/y.The sharp rise in European truck registrations in Q2 was primarily due to a new EU tachograph legislation,where in trucks registered on or after June 15,2019,have to be fitted with the new smart tachographs.Figure 1:W.European demand%y/ySource:ACEAFigure 2:China wholesale demand%y/ySource:CAAM-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%Jan-18Mar-18May-18Jul-18Sep-18Nov-18Jan-19Mar-19May-19Jul-19-20%-10%0%10%Jan-18Mar-18May-18Jul-18Sep-18Nov-18Jan-19Mar-19May-19Jul-192Europe Equity Research28 August 2019Jose M Asumendi(44-20)7742- Table of ContentsEarnings momentum in a volatile year.3China car market update.4Market share developments.5Where do we stand on the 1.6l engine segment?.8Pricing environment remains challenging.8Inventory levels rising sequentially.10Global truck demand.11Western Europe passenger car demand.13Car sales in the big five EU markets.15Developments in diesel share.16Channel mix in July(unadjusted for selling days).18August update:Pricing power reverting to healthy levels.19Update on scrappage schemes.20US LV SAAR.23US SAAR tracking at 16.9m.23Across the premium segment.26Russia LV demand.28Brazil car demand.303Europe Equity Research28 August 2019Jose M Asumendi(44-20)7742- Earnings momentum in a volatile yearThe challenging landscape of the auto sector has meaningfully dampened earnings growth momentum in Europe.In addition to weakening end markets,regulatory pressures have also impacted OEMs and suppliers,either directly(fines,investigations,etc.)or indirectly(increased R&D to meet CO2targets,transition to EVs).Before we dive deeper into the core end markets,we highlight the key changes to our earnings estimates since the beginning of the year below:Figure 3:Change in JPMe since January19 million,EPS in,%Source:J.P.Morgan estimates.*Last published estimates.*Estimates from October 20184Europe Equity Research28 August 2019Jose M Asumendi(44-20)7742- China car market updateKey highlightsWholesale passenger car demand in China declined by 3.9%y/y in July19,animproved trajectory compared to the double-digit declines of April/May and 8%decline in June19.Retail demand too was down 5%y/y in July,vs the+5%y/yChina VI fueled growth in Jun19.Pricing power has continued to deteriorate,with incentive levels still at high levels in the industry.Barring select OEMs that are rolling out new vehicles,the pricing environment has not yet recuperated.Further,looking at inventories,we are seeing a sequential build-up in the market,especially with local OEMs,due to channel stuffing of China 5 vehicles as some cities have extended the grace period for the new emissions standards.These levelsare in line with the high buildup of inventories seen in July 2018 as well.Given the weak consumer sentiment,auto demand and the current inventory levels,we are cautious about the downside risk to current production estimates for the market.We believe production could decline by 9%in FY19 vs IHS estimates of down 7%.We are also seeing double-digit declines in the weekly retail sales data coming out for the month of August;however,we are cognizant of the volatility of these data points and therefore we use them primarily as a directional/qualitative indicator as opposed to an absolute guide to the performance of the market.We do not expect to see a meaningful recovery in the coming months as the market initially expected.Our house view remains that the previously expectedinflection point in August may be pushed back to Q4,as the low base kicks inand the China VI pre-buy effect eases out leading to a low single-digit rebound.We expect to see continued weakness in the Chinese market going into September as a result of ongoing clearance of China V stocks from dealer lots(certain mainland provinces have offered grace periods,waving off the July 1stdeadline for China VI implementation).August also tends to experience seasonally weaker growth as 1)Consumer spending on durables tends to take a back seat over the summer months and 2)OEM plants carry out annual summer shutdowns.Currently,we are forecasting a weaker phase of recovery this year and expect Chinese demand to decline 4%in FY19 and production to decline 9%.Recent comments from Geely are also in line with our expectations.Geely,the 2nd largest Chinese OEM,said that the ongoing US-China trade disputes have resulted in“huge uncertainties”for auto demand in China in the remainder of the year and that the governments efforts to stimulate vehicle demand have had little effect thus far.Last month,Geely also cut its full-year sales forecast by 10%to 1.36m vehicles.5Europe Equity Research28 August 2019Jose M Asumendi(44-20)7742- Figure 4:Wholesale demand picks up on China VI pre-buy%Source:CAAM,CPCAFigure 5:Production declining since 3Q18 down 19%in 2Q19%Source:CAAMFigure 6:Discounts are rising at premium OEMs%Source:CAAMFigure 7:Inventory levels climbing back up%Source:CAAMMarket share developmentsDiving deeper into the industrys performance,we see Japanese and German OEMs holding greater share year to July19 vs US and Chinese brands.Premium OEMs have been outperforming the market and German names like BMW,Daimler and Audi have been gaining market share from the incumbent Chinese OEMs.Overall,the market is still largely dominated by local Chinese OEMs that hold 40%of themarket,followed by German(24%),Japanese(22%)and US(10%)brands.-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%Retail(YoY)Wholesale(YoY)Production(YoY)-30.0%-20.0%-10.0%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%20%22%1H-Feb 172H-Mar 171H-May 172H-Jun 171H-Aug 172H-Sept 171H-Nov 172H-Dec 171H-Feb 182H-Mar 181H-May 182H-Jun 181H-Aug 182H-Sept 181H-Nov 182H-Dec 181H-Feb 192H-Mar 191H-May 192H-Jun 191H-Aug 19Local brandsJV brandsPremium brands0.70.91.11.31.51.71.92.12.3Jul-16Sep-16Nov-16Jan-17Mar-17May-17Jul-17Sep-17Nov-17Jan-18Mar-18May-18Jul-18Sep-18Nov-18Jan-19Mar-19May-19Jul-19Industry3m Avg6Europe Equity Research28 August 2019Jose M Asumendi(44-20)7742- Figure 8:China Market share by OEM nationalitySource:J.P.Morgan estimates,CAAMIn basic passenger cars,Japanese and Korean OEMs have gained the most vs.a year ago,with the US and Chinese OEMs losing about 4%p in market share.Figure 9:Passenger car market share by nationalitySource:J.P.Morgan estimates,CAAMWithin the SUV segment:German and Japanese OEMs are winning market share at the expense of US and Chinese OEMs.Among US OEMs,GM is going through a product changeover and Ford has a high PC mix,with an SUV push mainly starting in FY20.Within French OEMs,Renault is still setting a base in China and Peugeot is restructuring its sales and distribution strategy.Figure 10:SUV market share by nationalitySource:J.P.Morgan estimates,CAAM0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%ChineseGermanJapaneseUSKoreanFrenchJul-16Jul-17Jul-18Jul-190.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%35.0%40.0%ChineseGermanJapaneseUSKoreanFrenchJul-17Jul-18Jul-190.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%70.0%ChineseGermanJapaneseUSKoreanFrenchJul-17Jul-18Jul-197Europe Equity Research28 August 2019Jose M Asumendi(44-20)7742- Figure 11:Total Market share by nationality%Source:CAAMFigure 12:Total market share by nationality%Source:CAAMFigure 13:Basic Passenger car:Market share by nationality%Source:CAAMFigure 14:Basic Passenger car:Market share by nationality%Source:CAAMFigure 15:SUV:Market share by nationality%Source:CAAMFigure 16:SUV:Market share by nationality%Source:CAAM5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%55%ChineseGermanJapanese0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%USKoreanFrench10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%35.0%40.0%May-17Jul-17Sep-17Nov-17Jan-18Mar-18May-18Jul-18Sep-18Nov-18Jan-19Mar-19May-19Jul-19ChineseGermanJapanese-2.0%0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%12.0%14.0%Jul-18Sep-18Nov-18Jan-19Mar-19May-19Jul-19USKoreanFrench-20.0%-10.0%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%70.0%May-17Jul-17Sep-17Nov-17Jan-18Mar-18May-18Jul-18Sep-18Nov-18Jan-19Mar-19May-19Jul-19ChineseGermanJapanese-2.0%0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%12.0%14.0%Jul-18Sep-18Nov-18Jan-19Mar-19May-19Jul-19USKoreanFrench8Europe Equity Research28 August 2019Jose M Asumendi(44-20)7742- Where do we stand on the 1.6l engine segment?The 1.5x reflect excess inventories at unhealthy levels.The inventory index in July19 stood at 1.75x,well above the warning line;however,these levels are down by 2%on a y/y basis.Sequentially,we have seen a sharp increase,up from 1.38x in June19,as the China VI clearances have been eased off.Further,we have seen a greater build up at local OEMs(2.15x vs 1.59x in June),while Imported brands(1.48x vs 1.14x in June)and JV brands(1.65x and 1.39x in June)are in a relatively better position.Figure 26:Inventory levels piling up in ChinaxSource:CADAFigure 27:Inventory levels back to square onexSource:CADAFigure 28:Inventory levels at premium automakersxSource:CADAFigure 29:PSA inventory levels down,VW levels stablexSource:CADA0.70.91.11.31.51.71.92.12.3Jul-16Sep-16Nov-16Jan-17Mar-17May-17Jul-17Sep-17Nov-17Jan-18Mar-18May-18Jul-18Sep-18Nov-18Jan-19Mar-19May-19Jul-19Industry3m Avg0.51.01.52.02.53.0JV BrandsImported BrandsLocal Brands0.51.01.52.02.53.0Jul-16Sep-16Nov-16Jan-17Mar-17May-17Jul-17Sep-17Nov-17Jan-18Mar-18May-18Jul-18Sep-18Nov-18Jan-19Mar-19May-19Jul-19AudiBMWMercedes-Benz0.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.0Dongfeng PSAVolkswagen Group11Europe Equity Research28 August 2019Jose M Asumendi(44-20)7742- Global truck demandEuropean truck demand:Year to June19 heavy commercial vehicles(16t)up 13.8%y/y,Q2 up 24%y/yIn June19,HD truck registrations increased by 46%y/y,with 42k new vehicles registered,bringing 1H19 growth up 14%y/y.The sharp rise in European truck registrations in June was primarily due to new EU tachograph legislation,via whichtrucks registered on or after June 15,2019,have to be fitted with the new smart tachographs.Sales increased in all key regions Germany(39%y/y),France(37%y/y),UK(62%y/y),Spain(45%y/y),Poland(26%y/y)and Italy(46%y/y).Q2 registrations were up 24.3%y/y in the market.Deliveries in the quarter across France(+30%y/y),Germany(+22%y/y),Italy(11%y/y),Spain(+14%y/y),UK(+32%y/y)and Poland(+18%y/y)were impacted by pre-buying effects in May and June.YTD registrations:Italy(flat y/y),France(+19%),Spain(+5%),Germany(+19%),UK(+28%)and Poland(+11%).Within the European truck OEMs,MB Trucks,MAN and DAF are more exposed to the German and UK markets.In Q2,book to bill ratios across Europe at Volvo stood at 0.79x(vs.0.97x in Q1),while Daimler reported a book to bill ratio in Europe of 0.93x(vs.1.08x in Q1).Figure 30:EUlong-term HD truck demandUnitsSource:IHS AutomotiveFigure 31:EU+EFTA monthly HD truck salesYoY%Source:ACEAFigure 32:European heavy truck market:Registrations across key markets#,dotted line shows historical peak levels in each marketSource:ACEA,J.P.Morgan-50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000Europe(ex.Russia)-15%-5%5%15%25%35%45%Jun-16Aug-16Oct-16Dec-16Feb-17Apr-17Jun-17Aug-17Oct-17Dec-17Feb-18Apr-18Jun-18Aug-18Oct-18Dec-18Feb-19Apr-19Jun-19YoY(%)010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,00080,000GermanyFranceUKItalySpainPoland2012201320142015201620172018YTD 201912Europe Equity Research28 August 2019Jose M Asumendi(44-20)7742- Chinese truck demand down significantly in JulyChinese truck sales declined by 8.9%y/y in July19 to 242.4k units.Year to Julysales of HD trucks are now down y/y(4%y/y)vs 2.4%y/y growth in volumes until April19.Brazil Truck demand recovering from a low baseThe Brazilian HD truck market(heavy+semi-heavy trucks)has been growing at a fast pace over the last year.Volumes in July were up 45%y/y to 6.6k units,while year to July volumes were up 56%y/y to 40.7k units as the market is recovering from a low base.As per IHS,demand in the country is expect