J.P. 摩根-全球-宏观策略-全球宏观数据观察-2019.6.7-96页 (2).pdf

Economic ResearchJune 7,2019Global Data Watch Continued downward revisions to growth and CB rate forecasts BoJ now expected to cut rates to-0.3%as global support fades The ECB turns dovish but is not close to easing Next week:mixed China activity,solid US retail sales in MayRefried confusion is making itself clearEven before the trade conflict heated up in May,global growth was weighed down by geopolitical uncertainty depressing business sentiment.The latest news suggests that this drag remains significant as we move toward midyear.Our capex nowcaster points to a contraction this quarter,while the May manufacturing PMI points to an underlying trajectory of below-1%growth in factory output.This drag has been contained thus far as employment and consumer spending gains remain firm.However,May releases show the global services PMI falling sharply and point to slowing in US and China employment growth.We have incorporated expectations of a moderation in hiring and service sec-tor growth in our forecast,but not an intensified trade war from here.At a minimum,the drag on confidence should deepen as companies question the stability of the rules-based global trading order.While we have focused on this indirect growth risk,a significant direct drag from rising tariffs is a grow-ing possibility.At the end of last year,tariffs hikes represented a small 0.3%-pt tax on US household incomes(Figure 1,Table 1).However,this potential tax on US would rise to 1%this year if tariffs are imposed on all imports from China.It would further double in size if the threatened 25%tariffs on autos and Mexico were imposed.Amid the fog of trade war,there are two points of clarity for the near-term outlook.First,global growth is likely to slip below its potential pace through year-end,and we are lowering forecasts to reflect this outcome.On the heels of downward revisions to the US and China,and other large EM economies last month,we lowered growth forecasts this week in Western Europe,Japan and Canada.At present,we forecast 2.5%annualized global GDP growth from 2Q-4Q,down 0.5%-pt from the start of the year.The second point of conviction is that policy supports should be forthcoming.Last weeks change to incorporate 50bp of Fed easing this year has been Table 1:US cumulative goods tariffsBased on 2017-18 val.*Assuming full pass-throughTariff rate*Hit to PCE pricesEnacted in 2018:+$308bn(at 12%)3.40.3Enacted in 2019:+$250bn China imp.(at 25%)4.50.5Threatened:+$300bn China imp.(at 25%)7.41.0+$350bn Mexico imp.(at 25%)10.81.7+$200bn autos(at 25%)12.72.0Source:J.P.Morgan 13579111351015202560 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20%of global GDP Figure 1:Global trade and US tariff rate%Source:WITS,J.P.MorganEffectivetariff rateGlobal tradeCurrentThreatenedContentsUS-China tariffs:Out of the frying pan16EM monetary policy:Easy come easy go19Japan:Pros/cons of postponing the VAT hike21Euro area:Country details signal very slow rise in core25German auto sector:Gauging the spillovers and new shocks27Climate change and the macroeconomy:a first look29Taiwans export sector adjusts to US-China trade conflicts31Philippines:Restarting the fiscal engine34Global Economic Outlook Summary4Global Central Bank Watch6Nowcast of global growth7Selected recent research from J.P.Morgan Economics9The J.P.Morgan View:Markets10Data WatchesUnited States36Euro area44Japan48Canada52Mexico54Brazil56Argentina58Colombia and Venezuela60United Kingdom63Emerging Europe65South Africa&SSA70Australia and New Zealand73China,Hong Kong,and Taiwan75Korea78ASEAN80India84Asia focus86Regional Data Calendars88Bruce Kasman(1-212)834-JPMorgan Chase Bank NAJoseph Lupton(1-212)834-JPMorgan Chase Bank NA2Economic ResearchGlobal Data WatchJune 7,2019JPMorgan Chase Bank NABruce Kasman(1-212)834-Joseph Lupton(1-212)834-followed by a sweeping dovish shift in central bank policy forecasts.Cumulatively we have lowered our forecast for end-year global policy rates by 71bp since the start of the year(Figure 2).Among these changes the most significant is the step in the direction of negative interest rates expected in Japan.Despite a persistent large inflation undershoot,the BoJ has resisted lower interest rates in recent years,hopeful that sustained sol-id global growth would eventually lift inflation.With external supports now diminishing,we expect a 20bp deposit rate cut(to-0.3%)in September.The BoJs concern about bank prof-itability and financial stability suggests that it will also cut the Loan Support Program rate(from 0%to-0.3%)and leave its current 0%10-year yield target unchanged.We believe that PM Abe is still on track to increase the VAT rate this year,but will announce a new fiscal stimulus package to alleviate its negative impact.China:May checkup as headwinds buildingChina is the other country where we expect a broad-based policy response to slowing growth.At present,the cross-currents buffeting its economy are turning more negative.On the upside,the supply chain reconnection that boosted produc-tion across Asia through April also boosted Chinese activity.Sizable policy supports are also building with the recent addi-tion of tax cuts to the household sector in April and in May.However,the trade war is set to take a toll and tightening fi-nancial conditions among small lenders are an additional headwind.This owes in part to the authorities attempts to impose market discipline in risk taking.The recent takeover of a small regional bank involving de facto restructuring of liabilities has raised the costs of wholesale funding.Under our baseline we expect growth to remain close to 6%and modest additional easingincluding one more 50bp RRR cut along with more active use of structural monetary policy instruments such as MLF lendingto be delivered.However,China policy will be calibrated to evolving economic and po-litical conditions.If concerns rise,we expect policy to re-spond forcefully with fiscal stimulus,PBOC cuts,and a par-tial relaxation of regulatory and housing policy.Next weeks May activity data will provide a checkup on the health of Chinese growth.Policy supports are likely to show in solid gains in retail sales(0.7%m/m)and IP growth(0.5%m/m)along with infrastructure and real estate invest-ment even as manufacturing investment holds overall FAI back to 6.1%oya.Global industry leading global decelerationThe goods sector has led the global economys growth slow-down since early 2018.Despite a welcome bounce in factory output through April,the latest news suggests that the pickup will be fleeting.Our global manufacturing output PMI took another step down last month and points to a meager 0.5%annualized global IP growth.Equally concerning,the more forward-looking indicators point to even weaker outturns ahead.The new orders index continues to run below the out-put index,while the future output expectations(over the com-ing 12 months)tumbled nearly 2pts last month to a new low for the series back to 2012(Figure 3).Not only are manufac-turers increasingly concerned about the escalating trade war,but signs of a continued steep slide in global capex growth through April indicate a pullback in final demand even before the trade war intensified.Weakening final demand growth is evident in the May global sector PMIs,which showed a fur-ther deceleration in capital,consumer,and intermediate goods production.Revising down Western European growthAlong with changes in central bank calls,broadly based growth revisions continue to roll in.This week,we lowered growth projections across Western Europe.The revisions are 0.2%-pt in the Euro area and UK,mostly in 2H19,with less in Scandinavia.But,risks are on the downside and the prospect 2.52.72.93.13.318Q419Q119Q219Q319Q4%per annumFigure 2:Global policy ratesSource:J.P.MorganGlobalGlobal ex USDashed:As of Dec 2018-71bp(-41bp ex US)575961636567694850525456201420152016201720182019DI,sa;both scalesFigure 3:J.P.Morgan Global manufacturing PMISource:J.P.Morgan,IHS/MarkitFuture expectationsNew ordersOutput3Economic ResearchGlobal Data WatchJune 7,2019JPMorgan Chase Bank NABruce Kasman(1-212)834-Joseph Lupton(1-212)834-of an Excessive Deficit Procedure in Italy is not helping.These risks are underscored by Fridays disappointing reports from Germany showing IP and exports contracting in April.While Easter timing may have played a role,the continued sluggishness in German industry points to softer underlying supports as transitory drags from last year fade.Adding to the concern are signs that the German auto sector remains stuck in the mudwith production data up in April but still 8%below the 1H18 level.Mexico waits and slowsAs negotiations to avoid the 5%tariff on all Mexican exports kicked off this week,Mexican authorities adopted a diplomat-ic approach with President AMLO stressing the need to find a cooperative solution to a humanitarian crisis.Progress hasthus far been limited to efforts from Mexico to strengthen security on the Central American border.A last-minute solu-tion is possible but there is a significant risk that tariffs are imposed next week.Regardless of the outcome,we expectthere will be a lasting drag on investment confidence.Accord-ingly,this week we downgraded 2019 growth for Mexico to 1.0%.We believe passage of the USMCA deal is at risk,and could be materially delayed until next year.EM central bank calls shift in massThe broad dovish shift in EM policy forecasts includes a mix of added easing and delayed(or fewer)hikes.Even with these changes our analysis suggests the EM region should be easing slightly more.A modified Taylor-rule for EM(ex.-China and Argentina)points to 49bp in cuts by year-end,14bp more than what we have penciled in.The Reserve Bank of India(RBI)cut rates as expected but also changed its stance from neutral to accommodative,likely reflecting its views on current growth-inflation dy-namics.Growth momentum has fallen off sharply since the start of the year,underscored by material disappointment from the recent 1Q19 GDP report.With the global envi-ronment worsening and the new government having very little fiscal space,we believe the burden of adjustment will fall on monetary policy.We therefore pencil in 50bp of eas-ing for the rest of 2019.The biggest risk to our view is a disappointing monsoon season,which would constitute a negative supply-shock that could delay any rate cuts.Elsewhere in EM Asia,the slow drift is also toward easier policies.For Korea,our revised growth forecast materially undershoots the Bank of Koreas April forecast.In the event our forecast is right,the BoK would likely tilt more dovish at its July meeting.With the Fed and BoJ expected to cut in 2H19,this should also lower the BoKs estimate of its neutral policy rateprompting a rate cut in 4Q19.For Taiwan,we have not changed our call.However,the weak cyclical trajectory together with major central banks ex-pected to ease raises the prospect of a rate cut later this year.For the high yielders in EMEA EM(Russia,South Africa,and Turkey),inflation has generally surprised to the down-side.The situation in South Africa is particularly dire as growth has been weak for the past few years(punctuated by a disappointing 3.2%ar contraction in 1Q19),exacerbating already difficult fiscal challenges.The combination of weak growth with inflation at the midpoint of the target band leads us to pull forward the 4Q19 rate cut to next month.Considering our inflation outlook and downside risks to growth,there is scope for an additional 25bp cut in 4Q19.In Russia,we expect the CBR will cut the policy rate 25bp next week.Inflation is running at the low end of CBR ex-pectations,inflation expectations are declining gradually,growth surprised to the downside,and global central banks have made a dovish turna perfect setting for a more dov-ish CBR stance.We expect additional 25bp cuts in Septem-ber and in March,but,given global developments,believe the risks to our forecast are skewed toward deeper and more frontloaded policy easing.In Turkey,despite the improve-ment in price dynamics and the recent lira recovery,we ex-pect the CBRT to remain cautious and resist the temptation of easing monetary policy early so as to bolster credibility.In CEE,most central banks are already disinclined to hike despite above-target inflation.A slowing global growth backdropparticularly continued concerns about German industryreinforces this bias.While core inflation is likely to linger above central bank targets,the balance of risks points to central banks in Hungary and Poland putting off any hikes until 2H20.After a 200bp hiking spree,the Czech National Bank has taken a dovish turn and we postpone the next hike to 3Q20.In Romania,persistently high inflation is threatening NBR credibility and so we continue to see tightening this year.Inflation has been outside the target band since December 2017 and we forecast inflation well outside the NBR target band(1.5%-3.5%)over the monetary policy horizon.The central bank prefers to tighten through liquidity manage-ment but these steps are not likely to be enough to bring in-flation inside the target band without rate hikes.Editor:Gabriel de Kock(1-212)622-6718 4Economic ResearchGlobal economic outlook sum-maryJune 7,2019JPMorgan Chase Bank NABruce Kasman(1-212)834-Carlton Strong(1-212)834-Joseph Lupton(1-212)834-Global economic outlook summary Real GDPReal GDPConsumer prices%over a year ago%over previous period,saar%over a year ago2018201920203Q184Q181Q192Q193Q194Q192Q184Q182Q194Q19United States2.9 2.3 1.7 3.4 2.2 3.1 1.0 1.5 1.8 2.7 2.2 1.9 1.9Canada1.91.01.42.10.30.41.01.51.5 2.32.02.02.0Latin America1.3 1.02.1 1.5 0.5-0.6 2.4 2.1 2.0 3.5 4.0 4.0 3.6Argentina-2.5-1.22.5-2.0-4.7-0.34.80.40.027.147.457.739.8Brazil1.1 0.9 2.0 2.0 0.4-0.6 1.4 2.4 2.2 3.3 4.1 4.3 3.7Chile4.03.12.90.55.3-0.15.63.54.02.22.41.92.6Colombia2.6 2.8 3.0 3.3 2.8 0.0 4.5 3.5 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.33.6Ecuador1.4-0.3-0.83.20.3-1.0-2.0-2.0-2.0-0.80.30.30.1Mexico2.0 1.01.7 2.7 0.1-0.7 1.31.61.8 4.6 4.8 4.4 3.7Peru4.03.73.5-2.010.4-2.06.04.05.00.92.12.62.4Uruguay2.0 1.0 1.0-0.4-0.5 1.0 1.5 2.5 1.0 7.3 8.0 8.0 7.8Venezuela-10.01.02.028250600000.Asia/Pacific4.84.54.53.54.54.64.64.73.72.01.92.02.0Japan0.8 0.9 0.6-2.5 1.6 2.1 1.0 2.5-3.5 0.6 0.9 0.70.1Australia2.81.93.01.20.91.61.92.93.8 2.11.81.41.6New Zealand2.8 2.52.71.2 2.2 2.8 2.92.8 2.4 1.5 1.9 1.4 1.4EM Asia5.95.55.65.25.55.45.75.45.4 2.32.22.42.6China6.6 6.3 6.1 6.0 6.1 6.7 6.1 5.9 5.9 1.8 2.2 2.6 2.6India6.86.57.46.56.44.86.56.87.54.82.62.93.8Ex China/India3.7 3.13.3 2.53.42.34.23.43.2 2.0 2.0 1.6 1.8 Hong Kong3.02.52.50.4-2.05.34.24.22.82.12.62.73.0 Indonesia5.2 4.9 4.9 4.9 5.4 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.8 3.3 3.2 3.0 2.8 Korea2.72.22.61.83.8-1.55.52.52.0 1.51.80.91.2 Malaysia4.7 4.3 4.0 6.0 5.2 4.4 4.1 3.8 3.8 1.3 0.3 1.3 1.8 Philippines6.25.76.05.97.33.95.76.66.64.85.92.81.5 Singapore3.1 1.7 2.0 0.8-0.8 3.8 2.0 2.0 1.5 0.3 0.5 1.4 1.6 Taiwan2.61.71.91.71.22.31.31.72.01.70.50.81.9 Thailand4.1 3.2 3.4-1.4 3.8 4.1 3.5 4.0 4.1 1.3 0.8 0.8 1.0Western Europe1.81.31.