J.P. 摩根-全球-宏观策略-全球宏观数据观察-2019.3.29-93页.pdf

Economic ResearchMarch 29,2019Global Data Watch Global capex stalls but weakness remains contained to manufacturing ECB considers tiered reserve charges as NIRP looks likely to persist Three strikes and youre out:UK moves toward a general election Next week:Solid US jobs;EA core CPI and global PMI dip;RBI eases HodorAs we assess recent performance we recognize a number of temporary drags contributing to a broad-based sub-par 1Q19 growth outcome.The government shutdown held back the US while Brexit and French protests have weighed on Western European performance.Meanwhile,prospects of a US January tariff hike reverberated through Asias supply chain producing a sharp contraction in Chinas trade and regional factory output.With the possible exception of Brexit these drags are now fading and should support stronger global growth into mid-year.However,a broad-based drag on business spending from last years slide in business confidence(related to a variety of political conflicts)is building and is likely to prove to be the more important driver of global growth.After rising at a solid 6.3%in the year ending in 2Q18,global capex(ex.Chi-na)gains slowed to a 2.5%pace in the second half of last year.Our proxy points to a further loss of momentum at the start of the year as capital goods imports and shipments both fell in the three months through January.More recent survey readings offer little room for optimism(Figure 1).The February global investment goods PMI and March DM business sector expectations remain depressed with each close to their levels in 2015-16 when global capex contracted.In line with these indicators we see global capex stalling this quar-ter with declines projected for the US and Japan.Asian activity provides an additional indicator of the global capex cycle,and the outsized collapse in IP this quarterwith Japan tracking a 10%annualizedcontraction and Emerging Asia ex China and India(EMAX)falling at an 8%pacesends a chilling message.However,we believe this contraction was magnified by Chinas supply chain shock due to fears of rising tariffs at the start of the year(Figure 2 and“EM Asia exports:Initial reaction to US-CN trade conflict”).Alongside signs of a US-China truce,these fears are now subsiding and should pave the way for a rebound.Although a March rise inKoreas exports may signal a coming turn,the further slide in Japans March flash PMI readings suggests that the regional lift will be limited by a contin-ued weakening in underlying global business sector demand.We look to next -3-2-10122013201520172019Std.dev from 2013-pres avgFigure 1:Expectations and capex PMISource:J.P.MorganGlobal capital goods new orders PMIExpectations(DM-mfg)-45-30-150153045-15-10-5051015201420152016201720182019%3m/3m,saar;both scalesFigure 2:EMAX IP and China capex importsSource:J.P.MorganEMA ex Chn,Ind IPChina capital goods importsContentsUS:Yield curve inversion shouldnt be ignored16Euro area:How sensitive is core to our model inputs?19Japan needs firm external demand and a stable JPY21Germany:IFO up,PMI down is only a slight positive23EM Asia exports:Initial reaction to US-CN trade conflict25Australia:FX fair value may be closer than you think27Philippines:Revisiting liquidity dynamics29Global Economic Outlook Summary4Global Central Bank Watch6Nowcast of global growth7Selected recent research from J.P.Morgan Economics9The J.P.Morgan View:Markets10Data WatchesUnited States32Euro area40Japan44Canada48Mexico50Brazil52Argentina54Ecuador56United Kingdom58Emerging Europe60South Africa&SSA64MENA67EMEA EM focus69Australia and New Zealand70China,Hong Kong,and Taiwan72Korea75ASEAN77India81Asia focus83Regional Data Calendars84Bruce Kasman(1-212)834-JPMorgan Chase Bank NADavid Hensley(1-212)834-JPMorgan Chase Bank NAJoseph Lupton(1-212)834-JPMorgan Chase Bank NA2Economic ResearchGlobal Data WatchMarch 29,2019JPMorgan Chase Bank NABruce Kasman(1-212)834-David Hensley(1-212)834-Joseph Lupton(1-212)834-weeks PMI readings across the rest of the Asian supply chain to provide further guidance about the magnitude of this drag.As the substantial slowing in global business spending be-comes more evident,it is important to confirm that this growth drag remains contained.Our view on this front is based on two judgments.First,macro policy stances are ac-commodative and flexible and are moving to provide support for growth in the coming quarters.Against this backdrop,the second judgment is that two strong years of global corporate profit growth makes it unlikely that firms retrench or that credit conditions tighten materially.Each of these views ap-pears to be tracking.Policy supports promote financial easing.Although an inversion of the US yield curve has raised fresh recession risk concerns,we believe there are structural factors relat-ing to the conduct of monetary policy that lower the strength of its recession signal(see“US:Yield curve inver-sion shouldnt be ignored”).At the same time,there is in-creasing evidence that a Fed pivot is promoting a broader easing in global monetary policy and that the pivot is com-bining with China policy stimulus to break the negative feedback loop between sub-par growth and tightening fi-nancial conditions.Labor markets remain solid.Following last weeks sharp slide in the German March manufacturing PMI survey it was encouraging to see better news from the Ifo survey for services and construction.In addition,Germany and Japan both posted solid labor market reports this week.If the US follows through on our expectation of a 190,000 March employment gain next week,it will confirm that DM em-ployment growth remains solid this quarter even as capex spending gains stalled(Figure 3).ECB:Tiers for fears Todays inflation reports from the G-3 will likely disappoint policymakers and reinforce the dovish tilt underway.US core PCE inflation fell to 1.8%oya in February,and the news in hand points to a further decline to 1.7%oya in March.Todays update on the Tokyo CPI suggests Japans core inflation rate remained stuck at 0.4%oya in March.In the Euro area,weak national readings suggest core inflation will fall to just 0.8%oya in Mondays March report.While the Feds pivot implies that they will need more clear-cut signs of an inflation overshoot to consider tightening,we do not believe that the latest inflation undershoot will deliver an ease in the coming months absent a material threat to growth or financial stability.However,if the Feds commit-ment to anchoring inflation expectations is real,a persistent inflation undershoot will eventually open this debate.It is in the Euro area where this threat seems more pressing as market-based measures of medium-term inflation expectations have fallen about 40bp over the past six months.The ECB has encouraged this thinking by shifting its focus from trying to hit its inflation target to merely trying to keep inflation on a rising path.This helps explain the limited action taken at the March meeting,despite a significant lowering of its inflation forecast.The ECB recognizes this pressure,and the rising probability it will need to leave policy rates unchanged for an extended period has led to increased concerns about the impact of the negative deposit rate on banks profits.As a consequence,governing council members suggested this week they are con-sidering the adoption of a tiered reserve charging system,which would boost bank profits by around 5bn per annum.More important,this new system would enable the ECB to cut the deposit rate to minus 100bp or more without increasing pressure on banks profits or adding to the incentive for the public to divert bank deposits into cash.The ECB does not appear to be close to cutting rates as it maintains a construc-tive view on the outlook.However,if growth and inflation continue to disappoint,the ECB would have more tools in its toolbox.This dovish tilt extended elsewhere this week as the RBNZ surprised by moving to an explicit easing bias.In a speech later in the week,the Governor emphasized the importance of the new dual mandate and of“accountability”in achieving the targets.The Governor appears to be positioning the new committee for a recalibration of policy at the next meeting.We had forecasted the RBNZ on hold but now expect 25bp cuts in May and June.The RBA has similarly shifted its risk-50510150.51.01.52.01113151719%q/q,saar;both scales.1Q is trackingFigure 3:DM employment and capexSource:J.P.MorganCapexEmployment3Economic ResearchGlobal Data WatchMarch 29,2019JPMorgan Chase Bank NABruce Kasman(1-212)834-David Hensley(1-212)834-Joseph Lupton(1-212)834-bias,and we added rate cuts to our forecast for July and Au-gust a few weeks ago.Also this month we removed a July rate hike in Canada.The upcoming April policy review will give guidance on whether the BoC plans to hike at all this year.Brexit:Hang on to your hatsAfter a third rejection of“the deal”this week,the Commons will attempt to establish a majority for a“softer”version of Brexit on Monday.Our best guess is that a variant involving a customs union will succeed.PM May has resisted that,fearing the dissent that doing so would generate within her own party.But a Commons majority could legislate to force her to com-ply.A change to the political declaration to include a com-mitment to negotiate a customs union could be added within a few days,facilitating a potential exit from the EU in late May or June.But it is not clear the majority for a softer Brexit would hold through the coming weeks as the legislation to enact it was passed.Those who favour a“harder”Brexit could abstain in a confidence vote in a nominally Conservative gov-ernment,offering the opposition a route to a general election.All told,we continue to think a general election is the single most likely outcome in the coming weeks.It is plausible the UK could decide in that direction by the time of the EU Council meeting on April 10,when the length of another ex-tension to Article 50 will be decided.With both the main po-litical parties conflicted over Brexit and having drifted away from the middle ground,the political landscape is not stable,and it is extremely difficult to establish what such an election would lead to.“All you can ease”at the India food buffetWhile the dovish pivot in global monetary policy is taking its lead from the Fed,Indian policymakers are also reacting to unusually low inflation.The RBI is expected to follow up on its February 7 rate cut with another cut next week.The MPC noted in its last review that monetary policy will be condi-tioned on its legislated mandate of 4%headline inflation.With food prices falling sharply and comprising 40%of the CPI basket,headline inflation is exceptionally benign at 2.6%oya as of February and expected to remain depressed for the coming months(Figure 4).However,core-core inflation averaged almost 5.5%over the last year and increased toward 6%in February.This suggests underlying inflation(and thus growth)is not nearly as weak as is implied by the headline inflation.Indeed,history shows that headline inflation typically con-verges to core,and(see“Indias Inflation Conundrum”)the recent drop in food prices is hard to explain,particularly as last years increase in minimum price supports was expected to boost prices.While food disinflation over the past year owes in part to weak rural demand,a combination of tempo-rary domestic and global supply factors are also at work.Thus,while the fall in headline inflation has pushed the RBI further into easing mode,a correction of headline back to core would eventually induce a reversal of monetary policy.Risks at home keep EM CBs cautiousThere are some EM central banks less caught up in this dovish tilt as domestic considerations warrant caution.This week,the SARB kept the policy rate unchanged,as expected,but the tone had a dovish hue even as the SARB-projected repo rate remained unchanged.The near-term growth outlook was revised down substantially and the in-flation backdrop is seen as more benign,with inflation ex-pectations down and unit labor cost growth forecasts marked down.However,fiscal risks and the challenges state-owned entities could pose for administered prices will likely prevent the SARB from easing this year.Mexicos Banxico kept its policy rate unchanged at 8.25%this week,leaving its assessment of risks unchanged.Poli-cymakers stressed a host of adverse risks that are keeping them cautious,including upside risks to inflation,and con-cerns about policy risks that could jeopardize financial sta-bility and the anchoring of inflation expectations.The board was clear on its priority:lowering inflation to 3%in an en-vironment of high uncertainty.In Brazil,we do not see the Central Bank easing this year as execution risks around the reform agenda have increased.However,weak data and rising political tensions have re-duced the chances of a more robust economic recovery.Next weeks February IP data should set the tone,but the risks are biased downward on growth and in the direction of a prolonged policy pause.Editor:Gabriel de Kock(1-212)622-6718 -3036912121314151617181920%oya,CPIFigure 4:India consumer pricesSource:MOSPI,J.P.Morgan;*J.P.Morgan derivedFoodHeadlineCore*4Economic ResearchGlobal economic outlook sum-maryMarch 29,2019JPMorgan Chase Bank NADavid Hensley(1-212)834-Carlton Strong(1-212)834-Joseph Lupton(1-212)834-Global economic outlook summary Real GDPReal GDPConsumer prices%over a year ago%over previous period,saar%over a year ago2018201920203Q184Q181Q192Q193Q194Q192Q184Q182Q194Q19United States2.9 2.21.8 3.4 2.21.5 2.3 1.8 1.8 2.7 2.2 1.7 1.9Canada1.81.51.72.00.41.01.82.22.32.32.02.02.0Latin America1.31.7 2.4 1.50.81.9 3.1 2.6 2.4 3.5 4.0 3.9 3.4Argentina-2.5-1.22.5-2.0-4.73.02.52.01.027.147.454.535.4Brazil1.1 2.1 2.5 2.2 0.5 1.8 3.4 3.2 2.8 3.3 4.1 4.2 3.4Chile4.03.53.00.65.34.04.24.03.82.22.41.92.7Colombia2.7 3.4 3.1 3.2 2.4 2.8 4.5 3.5 3.5 3.2 3.3 3.0 3.3Ecuador1.4-0.2-0.83.20.31.0-1.5-2.0-1.0-0.80.30.80.7Mexico2.0 1.5 1.7 2.4 1.0 0.8 2.0 1.8 2.0 4.6 4.8 4.3 3.7Peru4.03.93.6-2.010.41.06.02.04.00.92.12.62.4Uruguay2.1 1.9 1.9-0.1 0.5 2.0 3.0 4.0 1.0 7.3 7.4 7.8 7.2Venezuela-10.01.02.028250600000.Asia/Pacific4.84.44.53.64.64.14.65.03.92.01.91.71.6Japan0.8 0.20.6-2.4 1.9-1.0 1.02.5-3.5 0.6 0.9 0.4 0.3Australia2.82.12.71.10.72.62.42.53.02.11.81.62.0New Zealand2.8 2.6 2.6 1.2 2.2 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.4 1.5 1.9 1.8 1.7EM Asia6.05.65.75.35.65.55.75.95.82.32.22.01.9China6.6 6.2 6.2 6.0 6.1 6.1 6.2 6.4 6.2 1.8 2.2 1.9 1.6India7.37.27.46.86.76.97.17.57.74.82.62.93.8Ex China/India3.7 3.3 3.5 2.8 3.7 3.3 3.6 3.6 3.6 2.0 2.0 1.6 1.8 Hong Kong3.02.72.60.4-1.27.53.52.82.02.12.62.83.0 Indonesia5.2 4.9 4.9 5.0 5.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.8 3.3 3.2 3.0 2.8 Korea2.72.72.62.33.92.02.62.92.91.51.80.91.2 Malaysia4.7 4.4 4.3 6.7 5.7 4.5 4.3 4.3 4.3 1.3 0.3 1.3 1.8 Philippines6.26.05.96.16.46.16.15.76.14.85.93.32.1 Singapore3.2 2.0 3.0 1.4 1.4 0.4 4.9 2.8 3.0 0.3 0.5 1.4 1.6 Taiwan2.61.52.01.91.50.91.92.12.11.70.50.31.6 Thailand4.1 3.3 3.8-1.3 3.3 4.1 3