J.P. 摩根-全球-宏观策略-全球宏观数据观察-2019.3.29-93页.pdfVIP免费

EconomicResearchMarch29,2019GlobalDataWatchGlobalcapexstallsbutweaknessremainscontainedtomanufacturingECBconsiderstieredreservechargesasNIRPlookslikelytopersistThreestrikesandyou’reout:UKmovestowardageneralelectionNextweek:SolidUSjobs;EAcoreCPIandglobalPMIdip;RBIeasesHodorAsweassessrecentperformancewerecognizeanumberoftemporarydragscontributingtoabroad-basedsub-par1Q19growthoutcome.ThegovernmentshutdownheldbacktheUSwhileBrexitandFrenchprotestshaveweighedonWesternEuropeanperformance.Meanwhile,prospectsofaUSJanuarytariffhikereverberatedthroughAsia’ssupplychainproducingasharpcontractioninChina’stradeandregionalfactoryoutput.WiththepossibleexceptionofBrexitthesedragsarenowfadingandshouldsupportstrongerglobalgrowthintomid-year.However,abroad-baseddragonbusinessspendingfromlastyear’sslideinbusinessconfidence(relatedtoavarietyofpoliticalconflicts)isbuildingandislikelytoprovetobethemoreimportantdriverofglobalgrowth.Afterrisingatasolid6.3%intheyearendingin2Q18,globalcapex(ex.Chi-na)gainsslowedtoa2.5%paceinthesecondhalfoflastyear.OurproxypointstoafurtherlossofmomentumatthestartoftheyearascapitalgoodsimportsandshipmentsbothfellinthethreemonthsthroughJanuary.Morerecentsurveyreadingsofferlittleroomforoptimism(Figure1).TheFebruaryglobalinvestmentgoodsPMIandMarchDMbusinesssectorexpectationsremaindepressedwitheachclosetotheirlevelsin2015-16whenglobalcapexcontracted.Inlinewiththeseindicatorsweseeglobalcapexstallingthisquar-terwithdeclinesprojectedfortheUSandJapan.Asianactivityprovidesanadditionalindicatoroftheglobalcapexcycle,andtheoutsizedcollapseinIPthisquarter—withJapantrackinga10%annualizedcontractionandEmergingAsiaexChinaandIndia(EMAX)fallingatan8%pace—sendsachillingmessage.However,webelievethiscontractionwasmagnifiedbyChina’ssupplychainshockduetofearsofrisingtariffsatthestartoftheyear(Figure2and“EMAsiaexports:InitialreactiontoUS-CNtradeconflict”).AlongsidesignsofaUS-Chinatruce,thesefearsarenowsubsidingandshouldpavethewayforarebound.AlthoughaMarchriseinKorea...