J.P. 摩根-全球-宏观策略-全球宏观数据观察-2019.1.18-88页.pdf

Economic ResearchJanuary 18,2019Global Data Watch Bank credit still supportive through near-term slowdown China trade tumble raises concern about domestic and global demand Brexit bill fails,still looking for eventual passage Next:China 4QGDP and December activity data;G-3 Jan flash PMIsGive credit where credit is dueThe global economy is still working through its third notable growth slow-down of the expansion.Despite todays strong US December manufacturing output gain,global factory output failed to deliver an expected year-end re-bound,instead slowing to less than a 2%ar last quarter.With Asian trade and the global manufacturing PMI orders softening at year-end,and with financial conditions having tightened,it appears that downward momentum will not be arrested soon.There does not appear to be a single factor behind this decelera-tion as the factors weighing on Chinese and Western European demand are combining with a broad decline in business confidence related to trade con-flicts and other geopolitical tensions.Our forecasts are still adjusting to the year-end momentum loss,with China projections to be reevaluated after the release of next weeks December activi-ty readings and 4Q GDP.As sights are being lowered,it is easy to get swept into a spiral of recession fear.Indeed,the US expansion is approaching a rec-ord ten-year anniversary,with unemployment rates standing close to fifty-year lows.Our recession probability models are sending a warning signal as well with the metric combining US economic and financial market indicators pointing to a greater than 50%probability of recession this year.We continue to fade the magnitude of the recession risks.The usual vulnerabilities related to tight labor markets and mature expansions are not glaring.In this regard,an alignment of US and DM wage inflation with productivity growth has allowed corporate profit margins to expand during the past two years.At the same time,this expansion has yet to produce the strong capex upturn that tends to occur in older expansions.With profit margins close to record highs and durables spending not extended,it is unlikely that corporates will engage in a major reassessment in the face of the anticipated slowdown in revenue growth.Despite the fundamental supports,a slowing global economy will be vulnera-ble to recession if it is hit by a large negative shock.We believe that there are-20-1001020-20-15-10-5051015201012141618Net%tighteningFigure 1:US business sector credit%6m,saarSource:Federal Reserve,J.P.MorganC&I loansCredit standards for businesses-6-4-20246-20-10010201012141618Net%tighteningFigure 2:Euro area business sector credit%6m,saarSource:ECB,J.P.Morgan Note:Loans include CRE loansLoansCredit standards for businessesContentsUS:The tangled tale of the Fed balance sheet16US consumer has many rivers to cross18A high bar for alt data in US macro forecasting21Euro area:Faster wage growth is here to stay24December brings the Deus Ex Machina for RBNZ dovishness26Global Economic Outlook Summary4Global Central Bank Watch6Nowcast of global growth7Selected recent research from J.P.Morgan Economics9The J.P.Morgan View:Markets10Data WatchesUnited States28Euro area34Japan38Canada41Mexico43Brazil45Argentina47Peru49United Kingdom51Scandinavia53Emerging Europe55South Africa&SSA58EMEA EM focus63Australia and New Zealand64China,Hong Kong,and Taiwan66Korea69ASEAN71India75Asia focus77Regional Data Calendars80Our Special Report Ten questions about China in 2019 was published on January 13,and is now available on our website.Bruce Kasman(1-212)834-JPMorgan Chase Bank NADavid Hensley(1-212)834-JPMorgan Chase Bank NAJoseph Lupton(1-212)834-JPMorgan Chase Bank NA2Economic ResearchGlobal Data WatchJanuary 18,2019JPMorgan Chase Bank NABruce Kasman(1-212)834-David Hensley(1-212)834-Joseph Lupton(1-212)834-two types of shocks that need to be monitored alongside our tracking of economic activity indicators.Bank credit shock.Corporate debt is elevated and the US and global expansion would be threatened if credit access was materially curtailed.A tightening in credit magnifiedthe impact of commodity price declines and terms of trade losses during the 2015-16 global growth slowdown.Alt-hough current credit spreads have widened and leveraged loan markets look stretched,bank lending continues to ex-pand and standards continue to ease in the DM(Figures 1 and 2).That this has been ongoing for over a year withbank reserves in decline belies the often expressed concern around quantitative tightening(see“US:The tangled tale of the Fed balance sheet”in this GDW).The winding down of the Fed balance sheet is of second-order importance to its interest rate policy,which is now on hold.With borrowing rates moving down of late and lending standards still favor-able,a bank credit squeeze seems unlikely.Political/geopolitical shocks.The bigger wild card for the outlook relates to politics and geopolitical tensions.Some of these have moderated as oil supply held up after the im-position of sanctions on Iran and the US refrained from raising China tariffs at the start of the year.But there are significant areas of concern.The immediate focus is on the building drag from the US government shutdown and Brex-it uncertainties.However,the greatest risks relate to a reescalation of the global trade-war as the NAFTA deal makes it way through the US Congress,the US Section 232 report on auto trade is published,and US-China trade nego-tiators try and bridge the large gap between their respective positions.Chinese trade flows plummetLast week,we made significant downward forecast revisions in Europe along with a shutdown-related change in the US.Our China team has said they see downside forecast risk as well,though they want to see the December activity data,most of which are out Monday,before deciding whether to make changes.The focus on those data was heightened by this weeks international trade release,which revealed a second consecutive monthly slide in both exports and imports in De-cember.The cumulative drop in these two months for exports was 10%and for imports was 23%.The trade data raise questions both about the state of global demand and domestic demand in China.Exports fell across EM Asia during 4Q,consistent with our tracking of global IP growth,which has slipped to only 1.5%-2%ar.However,the declines were much more modest for EM Asia ex China(“EMAX”)than for China(Figure 3).Furthermore,the EMAX decline was dominated by shipments to China.It is tempting to blame Chinas underperformance on higher US tariffs though the implied lags between the imposition of the tariffs and the hit to exports appear long.Likewise,it seems too early for manufacturers to be making large-scale shifts away from China.The collapse in Chinas imports is even more puzzling.Some of this likely reflects the fact that half of Chinas imports are meant for processing and re-export.The remainder presuma-bly is tied to domestic demand.Through November,Chinas retail sales and FAI were expanding at positive albeit subdued rates.These increases in final goods demand are inconsistent with the collapse in imports that already was in train in No-vember.This backdrop points to a likely inventory adjustment that is falling mainly on imports rather than domestic produc-tion.Perhaps the increased level of uncertainty about the eco-nomic outlook,linked to the trade war,and the resumption of declines in industrial profits has prompted firms to retrench in this way.We will know more after we see the remainder of Chinas December activity data on Monday.Brexit deal on life supportWith the House of Commons rejecting the EU withdrawal agreement by the largest margin on record it will be a long journey back for PM May to secure support for a deal.With May surviving a motion of no-confidence,the option of a general election to put Brexit under new management has been set aside.There also does not appear to be a majority for a second referendum.PM May will likely return to Brussels to seek changes to the Withdrawal Agreement and secure little.However,the EU does appear willing to grant an extension to Article 50 if requested,possibly extending into 2H19.Against this backdrop,the House looks likely to pass legislation forc-ing the PM to seek an extension to Article 50 rather than al-lowing“no deal”to occur.We continue to think the single-40-20020406020122013201420152016201720182019%3m,saar;China adj for LNY vol;est for EMAX in Dec 18Figure 3:EM Asia merchandise exportsSource:J.P.MorganEMAXChina3Economic ResearchGlobal Data WatchJanuary 18,2019JPMorgan Chase Bank NABruce Kasman(1-212)834-David Hensley(1-212)834-Joseph Lupton(1-212)834-most likely path is May ultimately secures support for a deal but this might take longer than we had previously thought.Euro area call faces key test with PMIWith the Euro area economy experiencing significant disrup-tions,the big question concerns the pace of underlying growth.Our expectation is for growth to rebound to a 1.75%pace and that next weeks flash PMI for January will increase by around 1pt,largely due to a partial rebound in France as the“yellow vest”protests die down.A bounce-back in Ger-man autos,signaled by the gradual recovery in sales and order backlogs,also should support the PMI(Figure 4).The flash PMI will be published on the morning of next weeks ECB policy meeting and could have a last-minute impact on the policy statement.But,if the PMI does not drop,we would expect the ECB to play for time before considering any changes to its forward guidance.Draghi could task tech-nical committees to work on options for the TLTROs,which would tee up an announcement in March of a two-year LTRO offered in June.This would be aimed at smoothing the TLTRO roll-down with the new Net Stable Funding Ratio requirements in mind and hence would not have any lending incentive built in.If growth disappoints,the motivation for new liquidity operations could change.BOJ to cut and holdThe BoJ also meets next week.The Bank will release its new Outlook Report and we look for officials to revise down their inflation forecast for FY19 yet again,with the targeted rate(CPI ex fresh food,adjusting for the upcoming VAT hike and the shift to free education)now about 1.0%,down from the previous 1.4%.Our own recent revisions went substantially further.However,as weve learned in recent years,so long as officials retain their view that the economic expansion will continue at an above-trend pace,they are unlikely to change their policy stance.As we noted last week,this non-response is likely contributing to the persistently low level of inflation expectations.Argentina starts 2019 on the right footArgentina kicked off the election year with stable financial markets,declining inflation and upsiderisks to our activity projections,amid the unfolding fiscal and current account adjustments.Financial stability and an improving economy are needed to ensure policy continuity in a likely highly polar-ized environment going into Octobers presidential election.On this front,the credit premium compression seen year-to-date has allowed the central bank to purchase reserves and ease monetary conditions as the exchange rate pierced the floor of the non-intervention zone.Inflation has decelerated,limiting the decline in real disposable income.Yet,regulated prices should prevent further slowing in 1H19,which merits a cautious monetary approach.We hold to our base case scenar-io for sequential activity growth to resume in 2Q19 although the recovery could come sooner than expected.EM central banks meet expectationsThis weeks central bank meetings in Turkey,South Africa and Indonesia largely met expectations.All three banks are seeing positive developments on inflation and relief from global market pressures;however,they are parsing these de-velopments somewhat differently according to their specific situations.The CBRT left its policy rate unchanged and main-tained its tightening bias,easing worries about political pres-sure for lower rates ahead of the March 31 local elections.We think the bank will remain focused on building credibility in 1H19.South Africas MPC adopted a more dovish tone with a substantial downward revision to its inflation forecast just two months after it hiked the policy rate.The inflation revisions were largely tied to expectations for lower oil prices and a less depreciated rand.The SARB now sees just one further interest rate hike this year,in line with our call.Bank Indonesia also left rates on hold this week.The firming in IDR and lower oil prices have aided BIs efforts on finan-cial stability and managing the current account deficit to no more than 3%of GDP.We maintain our forecast for a 25bp hikes in July and December,following the Fed.While Indias central bank does not meet until February,wed note that this weeks December inflation release diminished the probability of an expected rate cut next month.Falling food prices have produced a dramatic decline in inflation to just 2.2%oya,even as core inflation surged to almost 6%oya(see:“India in 2019:still waters run deep).Additionally,fiscal risks continue to rise as the government contemplates a fiscal package for farmers.All this will likely keep the MPC cautious.We still expect a 25bp rate cut 1H19 but the odds of whether this oc-curs in February(our call)or April have become a toss-up.Editor:Gabriel de Kock(1-212)622-6718 95105115125135201520162017201820191Q15=100Figure 4:German manufacturing orders backlogSource:Destatis,J.P.MorganExcludingautosAutos4Economic ResearchGlobal economic outlook sum-maryJanuary 18,2019JPMorgan Chase Bank NADavid Hensley(1-212)834-Carlton Strong(1-212)834-Joseph Lupton(1-212)834-Global economic outlook summary Real GDPReal GDPConsumer prices%over a year ago%over previous period,saar%over a year ago2018201920203Q184Q181Q192Q193Q194Q192Q184Q182Q194Q19United States2.9 2.3 1.5 3.4 2.5 2.0 2.0 1.8 1.5 2.6 2.2 1.3 1.5Canada2.12.11.72.02.51.81.82.22.32.31.92.02.1Latin America1.3 1.8 2.2 1.8-0.7 2.1 3.4 3.0 2.4 3.5 4.1 4.1 3.8Argentina-2.7-1.52.6-2.7-10.0-0.16.04.03.027.147.349.328.5Brazil1.2 2.3 2.2 3.1 0.6 2.6 3.2 3.2 2.0 3.3 4.1 4.1 3.9Chile3.93.53.01.13.54.04.24.03.82.22.83.33.5Colombia2.7 3.1 3.1 0.9 3.0 2.8 4.5 3.5 3.5 3.2 3.3 3.5 3.7Ecuador1.1-0.4-0.83.6-2.5-1.51.0-2.0-1.0-0.80.00.30.5Mexico2.0 1.7 1.7 3.4-0.5 1.5 2.0 1.8 2.0 4.6 4.8 4.8 4.0Peru4.03.93.6-3.13.04.54.04.04.00.92.42.62.7Uruguay2.1 1.9 1.9-0.1 0.5 2.0 3.0 4.0 1.0 7.3 7.4 7.8 7.2Venezuela-10.01.02.028250600000.Asia/Pacific4.84.64.53.64.94.54.55.03.92.02.02.02.0Japan0.8 0.90.6-2.5 2.51.20.82.5-3.5 0.6 0.9 0.4 0.3Australia3.02.72.71.03.82.52.62.53.02.12.12.42.2New Zealand2.8 2.6 2.6 1.3 2.6 2.9 2.6 2.5 2.4 1.5 1.8 1.3 1.6EM Asia6.05.75.65.45.55.55.55.85.82.32.22.42.4China6.6 6.2 6.1 6.0 6.1 6.1 6.0 6.3 6.2 1.8 2.2 2.4 2.2India7.37.27.16.96.86.67.17.57.74.82.73.74.5Ex China/India3.7 3.4 3.5 2.9 3.3 3.5 3.4 3.6 3.7 2.1 2.0 1.8 1.9 Hong Kong3.32.72.60.42.04.03.53.33.12.12.62.