J.P. 摩根-全球-宏观策略-全球宏观数据观察-2019.1.18-88页.pdfVIP免费

EconomicResearchJanuary18,2019GlobalDataWatchBankcreditstillsupportivethroughnear-termslowdownChinatradetumbleraisesconcernaboutdomesticandglobaldemandBrexitbillfails,stilllookingforeventualpassageNext:China4QGDPandDecemberactivitydata;G-3JanflashPMIsGivecreditwherecreditisdueTheglobaleconomyisstillworkingthroughitsthirdnotablegrowthslow-downoftheexpansion.Despitetoday’sstrongUSDecembermanufacturingoutputgain,globalfactoryoutputfailedtodeliveranexpectedyear-endre-bound,insteadslowingtolessthana2%arlastquarter.WithAsiantradeandtheglobalmanufacturingPMIorderssofteningatyear-end,andwithfinancialconditionshavingtightened,itappearsthatdownwardmomentumwillnotbearrestedsoon.Theredoesnotappeartobeasinglefactorbehindthisdecelera-tionasthefactorsweighingonChineseandWesternEuropeandemandarecombiningwithabroaddeclineinbusinessconfidencerelatedtotradecon-flictsandothergeopoliticaltensions.Ourforecastsarestilladjustingtotheyear-endmomentumloss,withChinaprojectionstobereevaluatedafterthereleaseofnextweek’sDecemberactivi-tyreadingsand4QGDP.Assightsarebeinglowered,itiseasytogetsweptintoaspiralofrecessionfear.Indeed,theUSexpansionisapproachingarec-ordten-yearanniversary,withunemploymentratesstandingclosetofifty-yearlows.OurrecessionprobabilitymodelsaresendingawarningsignalaswellwiththemetriccombiningUSeconomicandfinancialmarketindicatorspointingtoagreaterthan50%probabilityofrecessionthisyear.Wecontinuetofadethemagnitudeoftherecessionrisks.Theusualvulnerabilitiesrelatedtotightlabormarketsandmatureexpansionsarenotglaring.Inthisregard,analignmentofUSandDMwageinflationwithproductivitygrowthhasallowedcorporateprofitmarginstoexpandduringthepasttwoyears.Atthesametime,thisexpansionhasyettoproducethestrongcapexupturnthattendstooccurinolderexpansions.Withprofitmarginsclosetorecordhighsanddurablesspendingnotextended,itisunlikelythatcorporateswillengageinamajorreassessmentinthefaceoftheanticipatedslowdowninrevenuegrowth.Despitethefundamentalsupports,aslowingglobaleconomywillbevulner...