J.P. 摩根-全球-宏观策略-巴黎全球市场会议的亮点-2019.3.20-22页.pdf

Global Research20 March 2019 Highlights from the Global Markets Conference in Paris March 2019Chair of Global ResearchJoyce Chang(1-212)834-J.P.Morgan Securities LLCGlobal ResearchMalcolm Barr(44-20)7134-JPMorgan Chase Bank N.A,London BranchFabio Bassi AC(44-20)7134-J.P.Morgan Securities plcSaul Doctor AC(44-20)7134-J.P.Morgan Securities plcBruce Kasman(1-212)834-JPMorgan Chase Bank NAJan Loeys AC(1-212)834-J.P.Morgan Securities LLCMislav Matejka,CFA AC(44-20)7134-J.P.Morgan Securities plcPaul Meggyesi AC(44-20)7134-J.P.Morgan Securities plcNikolaos Panigirtzoglou AC(44-20)7134-J.P.Morgan Securities plcAlex Roever AC(1-212)834-J.P.Morgan Securities LLCSee page 18 for analyst certification and important disclosures,including non-US analyst Investor sentiment from this years Global Markets Conference in Paris reflected a marginal bias towards holding risky assets,supported by more dovish policy guidance from the Fed and ECB,as well as expectations that geopolitical risk,particularly related to global trade tensions,will not escalate dramatically.While global growth reflects moderate deceleration,the US is not at risk of falling into recession over the next 12 months,and investors expect range-bound to modestly higher returns across asset classes,with Emerging Markets to outperform.European investors see greater risks originating from the United States related to trade tensions with Europe and China as outweighing economic and political risks from Italy,the upcomingEuropean elections,and Brexit.1.Central banks to remain accommodative with core bond yields to stay low.With global growth weaker than anticipated and market volatility higher than expected,there is growing recognition by central banks that the dangers of financial instability are as great or greater than the risk of inflation.2.Global growth has been subpar with mild deceleration,but the US recession risk is not a 2019 event.More than 50%of the investors do not see US recession as a 2020 event either.3.Range-bound to modestly higher returns are expected across most asset classes.In the investor survey,64%of the audience held long positions,but 35%indicated that they are looking to reduce risk from current levels.4.Emerging markets have breathing space and more than 50%of investors think that EM assets will outperform developed markets this year.EM equities were seen as offering the best returns for 2019 by 32%of respondents,followed by EM local currency bonds(23%).5.Need for greater focus on liquidity management,factor investing and systematic strategies as market returns are declining.6.The threat of a global trade war,directed by the US at China and/or Europe,was identified as the key geopolitical risk,far outweighing Italian and other European political risks as well as Brexit risks,but trade tensions are unlikely to escalate much further from current levels.7.Extension of the Brexit process is seen as the most likely outcome.Thefirst meeting of the European Parliament,on July 2,2019,suggests that there is a broad agreement on a short term three-month extension,which would not raise questions about UK participation in the European Parliament elections.8.Need to focus on local communities,beyond Markets and the State,that have the knowledge and motivation to find the local solutions to create greater job opportunities.9.Expectations for Donald Trump to win a second term.Only 4%of the audience identified impeachment of US President Trump as a risk and 64%believe that Trump will serve a second term.10.Climate change highlighted as the next big geopolitical risk to monitor.National solutions and action are favored over global conventions to address climate change and to deal with the consequences of climate change.2Global ResearchHighlights from the Global Markets Conference in Paris 20 March 2019Joyce Chang(1-212)834- J.P Morgan hosted its annual Global Markets Conference on March 1315 in Paris,France.This report summarizes key highlights from the conference.All sessions from the conference were conducted under Chatham House rules,without direct attribution to the speakers and closed to the press.The views presented by the speakers do not necessarily coincide with the views of J.P.Morgans research analysts.Summary,audience survey and key takeawaysInvestor sentiment from this years Global Markets Conference in Paris reflected a marginal bias to add risk,supported by more dovish policy guidance from the Fed and ECB,as well as expectations that geopolitical risks,particularly related to global trade tensions,will not escalate dramatically.While global growth reflects moderate deceleration,the US is not at risk of falling into recession over the next 12 months and investors expect range-bound to modestly higher returns across asset classes,with Emerging Markets to outperform.European investors see greater risks originating from the United States related to trade tensions with Europe and China as outweighing economic and political risks from Italy,the upcoming European elections and Brexit.Investor Survey Key Takeaways:In the investor survey,64%of the audience indicated that they are currently positioned long,although 35%of the respondents indicated that they are looking to reduce risk from current levels.Around one-third are positioned at neutral or short and looking to go neutral,while only 3%of investors are short and looking to stay short.Similar to last year,overwhelmingly,the threat of a global trade war between the US and China(52%)or the US and Europe(17%)were identified as the key geopolitical risks,followed by Italian/other European political crisis(14%)and Brexit(8%).By comparison,only 4%of the audience identified impeachment of US President Trump as a risk and 64%believe that Trump will serve a second term.Less than 2%apiece felt that a more aggressive Russia,North Korea,or oil supply shocks were material risks.Although the audience identified escalation of global trade tensions as the key geopolitical risk,only 12%expected escalation of tensions from current levels,virtually even with the number of respondents who expect trade tensions to be pared back(11%).Approximately half of the investors expect a moderate,but contained increase in global trade tensions,and 26%expect no worsening beyond the current conditions.More than half of the audience expects Emerging Markets assets to outperform Developed Markets assets,and investors are constructive on the outlook for the S&P 500,even accounting for the strong rally year to date.Similar to last years survey and our client surveys in the global markets conferences hosted in Miami with US investors at the end of February,EM equities were seen as offering the best returns for 2019 by 32%of respondents,followed by EM local currency bonds(23%),developed market equities(19%),global credit(12%),gold(7%)and developed market government bonds(7%).2018 actual returns were a far cry from expectations with EM equities ending the year down 17%,while EM local currency bonds and developed market equities fell by 6%each,with the top performance coming from US leveraged loans(1%).(See Highlights from Global Markets 3Global ResearchHighlights from the Global Markets Conference in Paris 20 March 2019Joyce Chang(1-212)834- Conference in Paris:March 2018,March 14,2018).Around 45%of the audience expect the S&P 500 in the 2,750-3,000 range by year-end(2,832 as of March 19,2019),while 34%expect the S&P 500 to end the year in a higher range and 22%expect a lower range.While global growth has been subpar this year,only 6%of the respondents believe that the US economy is at risk of falling into recession by 4Q19,while only 24%see this as likely by 4Q20,with 56%indicating that the US economy will not fall into recession by 2020 and 13%indicating that they are unsure.These results mirror the investor survey results from the Miami conferences held in late February.In those surveys,only 30%of conference participants thought that the risk of US recession within the next 12 months was 50-60%likely,while 43%indicated that there is less than a 20%probability of recession within the next 18 months(see Highlights from Global Markets and Risk Management Symposium:Investors still constructive but see rising risks in 2H19,March 5,2019).Investorsattending our conference in Paris expect core bond yields to remain low with 37%indicating that the Fed will remain on hold this year,12%anticipating a 25bp cut and 8%predicting a cut of at least 50bp,compared to 27%foreseeing a 25bp hike and 16%projecting a 50bp hike.J.P.Morgans US Economics team revised its Fed forecast and now sees the Fed on hold this year and looks for a rate hike to occur only by late 2020(see US FOMC preview,and change in our Fed view,MichaelFeroli,March 14,2019).Only 17%expect EUR/USD above$1.20,while 14%see EUR/USD below$1.10,with the vast majority(69%)expecting the current range to hold and indicating a range of$1.10-$1.20.J.P.Morgans FX Research team recently lowered its year-end EUR/USD forecast from 1.20 to 1.16.(See Key Currency Views:The DM doves from above,March 15,2019).Similar to J.P.Morgans UK research views(see Brexit:an Article 50 extension and Mays third chance,Malcolm Barr,March 14,2019),most investors expect a long Article 50 extension for Brexit,with no specified UK political process(46%),followed by a second referendum(18%),exit on terms specified by the current withdrawal agreement(15%)or general election(15%),with only 6%indicating no deal and reversion to WTO norms to govern trade.There is no clear consensus on the successor for Mario Draghi as President of the ECB,with 28%indicating Erkki Liikanen,Former Governor of the Bank of Finland,followed by Jens Weidmann,President of the Bundesbank(21%),Benoit Coeure,Member of the Executive Board of the ECB(19%),Christine Lagarde,Chairwoman of the IMF(15%),Olli Rehn,Governor of the Bank of Finland(10%)and Francoise Villeroy de Galhau,Governor of the Banque de France(6%).Top 10 Takeaways:1.Central banks to remain accommodative with core bond yields to stay low.With global growth weaker than expected and the market volatility higher than expected,there is growing recognition by central banks that the dangers of financial instability are as great or greater than the risk of inflation.The Fed pivot is a mix of risk management,reaction function change and shifting political winds,and other central banks have followed suit.The ECB acted with haste and delivered a policy package one month earlier than expected and revised down inflation and growth forecasts and it now appears that they could leave rates unchanged through 2020 while we now expect the Fed to hike rates only by late 2020.2.Global growth has been subpar with mild deceleration,but US recession risk is not a 2019 event,and more than 50%of the investors do not see US 4Global ResearchHighlights from the Global Markets Conference in Paris 20 March 2019Joyce Chang(1-212)834- recession as a 2020 event either.Economic uncertainty will persist,but only 6%of the respondents believe that the US economy is at risk of falling into recession by 4Q19,while only 24%see this as likely by 4Q20,with 56%indicating that the US economy will not fall into recession by 2020 and 13%indicating that they are unsure.3.Range-bound to modestly higher returns expected across most asset classes.Investors are comfortable holding risky assets.In the investor survey,64%of the audience indicated that they are currently positioned long,although 35%of respondents indicated that they are looking to reduce risk from current levels.Around one-third are positioned at neutral or short and looking to go neutral,while only 3%of investors are short and looking to stay short.Around 45%of the audience expect the S&P 500 to be in the 2,750-3,000 range by year-end(2,822 as of March 15,2019),while 34%expect the S&P 500 to end the year in a higher range and 21%expect a lower range.Only 17%expect EUR/USD above$1.20,while 14%see EUR/USD below$1.10,with the vast majority(69%)expecting the current range to hold and indicating a range of$1.10-$1.20.4.Emerging markets have breathing space and more than 50%think that EM assets will outperform developed markets this year.EM equities were seen as offering the best returns for 2019 among all asset classes by 32%of respondents,followed by EM local currency bonds(23%)compared to developed market equities(19%),global credit(12%),gold(7%)and developed market government bonds(7%).Brazil is likely to be a key beneficiary as speakers at the conference believe that Brazil will pass pension reform in the third quarter of the year,even though they believe that Brazils growth will disappoint this year,coming in at only 1.7%.5.The need for greater focus on liquidity management,factor investing,and systematic strategies as market returns are declining.CIOs see core bond yields as anchored but see a new regime of diminished market returns ahead,with the possibility that 2020 will be a down year across markets.Diversified strategies,macro strategies and discretionary approaches failed in 2018 and factor investing has been a more successful investment approach,while systematic strategies have the potential to improve the diversification of portfolios and generate alpha.Although the market has focused on liquidity pressures as the cause for the market volatility,the root of the problem is the lack of assets as share buybacks have resulted in demand outstripping supply.6.The threat of a global trade war,directed by the US at China and/or Europe,was identified as the key geopolitical risk,far outweighing Italian and other European political risks as well as Brexit risks,but trade tensions are unlikely to escalate much further from current levels.Nearly 70%of the investors identified a global trade war between the US and China or the US and Europe as the key geopolitical risks,compared to 22%focused on Italian/other European political crisis and Brexit as key risks.Although the audience identified escalation of global trade tensions as the key geopolitical risk,only 12%expected escalation of tensions from current levels,virtually even with the number of respondents who expect trade tensions to be pared back(11%).Approximately half of the investors expect a moderate,but contained increase in global trade tensions,and 26%expect no worsening beyond the current conditions.7.An extension of the Brexit process is seen as the most likely outcome.The key date of the first meeting of the European Parliament,on July 2,2019,suggests that there is a broad agreement on a short-term extension,such as three 5Global ResearchHighlights from the Global Markets Conference in Paris 20 March 2019Joyce Chang(1-212)834- months from the end of March,as it would not raise the question about the UK participating at the European Parliament elections.While there is debate about the extent to which the UK has to choose from the existing“menu”of choices in the future trading relationship with the EU,the impulse toward