J.P. 摩根-美股-保险行业-可变年金市场趋势：强劲的市场短期顺风但长期观点谨慎-2019.12.3-30页.pdfVIP免费

NorthAmericaEquityResearch03December2019VariableAnnuityMarketTrendsStrongMarketaNear-TermTailwind,butLong-TermViewCautiousInsurance--LifeJimmyS.Bhullar,CFAAC(1-212)622-6397jimmy.s.bhullar@jpmorgan.comBloombergJPMABHULLARPabloS.Singzon(1-212)622-2295pablo.s.singzon@jpmorgan.comJ.P.MorganSecuritiesLLCSeepage26foranalystcertificationandimportantdisclosures.J.P.Morgandoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.www.jpmorganmarkets.comWemaintainacautiousstanceonthevariableannuitybusiness.Thelagimpactofthestrongequitymarketanddisciplinedpricecompetitionarekeypositives.Still,weprojectsalesandnetflowsinthebusinesstobeweakandremainwaryofthetailriskinlivingbenefitguarantees.OurmodelsprojectVAsalestorise7%in4Q19andbeflatin2019.Salesrose5.4%in3Q19to$23.8billion,betterthanour$22.6billionestimate,asweakdemandfortraditionalVAswasoffsetbygrowthinbufferannuities.Comparedwith2Q19,AllianzandNYLifegainedthemostshare,whileTIAAandEQHlostthemost.Withinourcoverage,weexpectLNCandPRUtogainshareinthenearterm.VAsaleshavedroppedin6ofthepast7years,andarelikelytoberoughlyflatin2019andrisemodestlyin2020.Despiteanexpectedrecovery,weexpectsalestoremainwellbelowhistoricallevelsandprojectVAnetflowstobenegativein2020.Our2020salesforecastis38%belowthelevelin2011.Inourview,variableannuities’complexity,highfees,andliquidityrestrictionswillprecludethemfromcapturingahigherproportionofretirementassets.WeexpectVAresultsin4Q19tobemarkedbyhealthyfeeincomeandanimprovementinNAR.TheS&Pindexisup6%thusfarin4Q19andis2%higheronanaveragedailybalancebasis(whichdrivesfeeincome),bothofwhichbodewellforfeesin4Q19andinfutureperiods.Also,thestrongequitymarketandtheriseininterestratesshouldlowernetamountsatrisk(NAR)andhedgingcosts.Stillrateassumptionsininsurers’balancesheetsareoptimisticrelativetothefor...