GSMA-2018年俄罗斯和独立国家联合体（CIS）移动经济报告（英文）-2019.4-40页.pdf

Copyright 2018 GSM AssociationRussia&CIS The Mobile Economy2018The GSMA represents the interests of mobile operators worldwide,uniting more than 750 operators with over 350 companies in the broader mobile ecosystem,including handset and device makers,software companies,equipment providers and internet companies,as well as organisations in adjacent industry sectors.The GSMA also produces the industry-leading MWC events held annually in Barcelona,Los Angeles and Shanghai,as well as the Mobile 360 Series of regional conferences.For more information,please visit the GSMA corporate website at Follow the GSMA on Twitter:GSMALTE Union is a nonprofit organization,with the mission to foster mobile network deployment within the Russian Federation by promoting of advanced technologies,enabling legislation and access to new spectrum bands for mobile networks.Currently,the LTE Union includes VimpelCom PJSC,MegaFon PJSC,MTS PJSC and T2 Mobile LLC.Executive Director of the LTE Union is Gulnara Khasyanova.Read more at http:/lteunion.ru/GSMA Intelligence is the definitive source of global mobile operator data,analysis and forecasts,and publisher of authoritative industry reports and research.Our data covers every operator group,network and MVNO in every country worldwide from Afghanistan to Zimbabwe.It is the most accurate and complete set of industry metrics available,comprising tens of millions of individual data points,updated daily.GSMA Intelligence is relied on by leading operators,vendors,regulators,financial institutions and third-party industry players,to support strategic decision-making and long-term investment planning.The data is used as an industry reference point and is frequently cited by the media and by the industry itself.Our team of analysts and experts produce regular thought-leading research reports across a range of industry ContentsEXECUTIVE SUMMARY21INDUSTRY OVERVIEW61.1CIS:a highly penetrated region71.24G adoption surging across the region101.35G launches in sight121.4Smartphones driving data traffic growth161.5Financials:revenue outlook stabilising182MOBILE DRIVING GROWTH AND INNOVATION IN CIS212.1Scaling IoT222.2E-commerce242.32.42.5Investing in grassroots innovationBlockchainOther areas of innovation by mobile operators2627283FOSTERING DEVELOPMENT OF THE DIGITAL ECONOMY303.1Spectrum for 5G313.2Deployment procedures and provisions323.33.4Network architecture regulationNetwork neutrality and data regulation3334Contents1A highly penetrated region,but limited growth aheadExecutive SummaryThe Commonwealth of Independent States(CIS)region is one of the most highly penetrated in the world,with 80%of the population subscribing to mobile services.This positions it just behind other developed market regions such as Europe(85%)and Northern America(84%)but well ahead of both Latin America and Asia Pacific(both 67%)and the global average of 66%.However,the region is diverse,with the headline numbers masking markets at different stages of development.Subscriber penetration rates range from 60%in Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan to 89%in Russia.At the end of 2017,the region was home to 232 million unique mobile subscribers.The three largest markets Russia,the Ukraine and Uzbekistan together account for 80%of the regions total subscriber base.Given the relatively high level of penetration,growth over the next few years will be limited.The region will see only a 2 percentage-point increase in penetration by 2025.Only Northern America will see a smaller increase in penetration over this time.Almost half the additional subscribers will come from Uzbekistan,a country that is the third most populous but one of the least penetrated in the region.By 2025,there will be 242 million unique subscribers in the region,accounting for 82%of the population.Note:we use the term CIS in this report to refer to the Commonwealth of Independent States,including Russia.See page 14 for a full list of countries.Executive Summary2The Mobile Economy Russia&CIS 20184G growing rapidly;5G launches on the horizonLed by the move to 4G,the CIS region is continuing to see a rapid shift to mobile broadband.4G as a proportion of the connections base tripled over a two-year period to reach 16%at the end of 2017,largely driven by Russia,which was one of the first countries in the region to launch 4G in 2012.4G will overtake 2G as a proportion of connections in early 2020,will become the leading mobile technology in 2021,and will account for over half and then two-thirds of total connections by 2022 and 2025 respectively.The region will be a fast follower in terms of 5G,with network launches expected in Russia from around the end of 2020.Rollout will be relatively rapid,covering more than 80%of the Russian population by 2025;by then,there will be 48 million 5G connections across the country(accounting for 19%of total connections).The initial focus in Russia is likely to be on enhanced mobile broadband(eMBB)to add capacity and higher speeds for mobile internet access.Other countries in the region expected to launch 5G services by 2025 include Azerbaijan,Belarus,Georgia and Uzbekistan.Opportunities sought to boost muted mobile revenue outlook Despite ongoing competitive pressures,relatively low smartphone adoption and relatively low pricing,service revenue trends have been improving in recent quarters,with revenues growing in the low single digits(largely below the level of inflation).Beyond 2019,growth in real terms is forecast to remain subdued at a rate of less than 1%.Rapid growth in smartphone adoption over the coming years(reaching around 80%of connections by 2025,up from less than 60%now)will fuel an explosion in data traffic.Any upside to existing revenue forecasts will therefore depend on mobile operators more effectively monetising this data growth and developing new revenue streams.The Internet of Things(IoT)is an area where mobile operators can grow their business beyond traditional communications.The number of IoT connections in the CIS region will triple over the next few years,reaching 660 million by 2025.While consumer IoT accounts for the majority of IoT connections(68%in 2017),the biggest increase is expected in industrial IoT;it will reach 48%of total IoT connections by 2025.This will be driven by increased interest in smart cities and smart utilities.IoT revenue meanwhile will reach almost$26 billion by 2025(up from$5 billion in 2017),driven by applications,platforms and services the largest source of revenue growing from 53%of total IoT revenue in 2017 to 62%in 2025.Other areas of opportunity for mobile operators in the CIS region include e-commerce,blockchain and investments in the startup ecosystem.Policy:fostering development of the digital economyThe implementation of 5G networks should be considered by regulators as not just a new technical advancement for the telecoms industry,but as a condition for delivering the digital economy and to drive the transformation of industries.With such a mindset,the regulation of the mobile industry should shift from controlling and supervising the industry to fostering its development.In the CIS region,there are four key areas where policy and regulation could be used to spur 5G rollout:the timely availability of harmonised spectrum at a suitable price;new approaches to supervise network development;updates to network architecture regulation;and the introduction of legislation covering network neutrality and data collection.Executive Summary3The Mobile Economy Russia&CIS 2018Mobile EconomyRussia&CISUnique mobile subscribers232m242m0.5%20172025CAGR 20172580%PENETRATION RATE(%of population)82%SIM connectionsExcluding licensed cellular IoT422m437m201720250.4%CAGR201725146%PENETRATION RATE(%of population)149%81%Smartphone connectionswill increase from 57%oftotal connections in 2017 to16%5G4G4G connections accounted for 12%5G connections will account for of total connections by 2025of total connections in 2017by 2025Operator total revenues 2017$16.1bn$17.6bn2025Operator capex of$15.3 billion for the period 20182020 Excludes licensed cellular IoT660 million IoT connections by 2025Industry overview016Industry overviewThe Mobile Economy Russia&CIS 2018Unique subscribers in CIS Source:GSMA IntelligenceFigure 1At the end of 2017,there were 232 million unique mobile subscribers1 in the Commonwealth of Independent States(CIS),equating to a penetration rate of 80%of the population.The CIS region is one of the most highly penetrated regions in the world,trailing slightly behind other developed regions such as Europe and Northern America but significantly ahead of both Latin America and Asia Pacific.The gap will close between CIS and the latter though,as the region will see only a 2 percentage-point increase in penetration by 2025.Only Northern America will see a smaller increase in penetration over this time.1.1CIS:a highly penetrated region1.A unique mobile subscriber is defined as an individual person that can account for multiple mobile connections(SIM cards)1081281289210411420122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025RussiaOther CIS marketsTotal Population penetration70%20023224280%82%Millions7Industry overviewThe Mobile Economy Russia&CIS 2018CIS is one of the most penetrated regionsSource:GSMA IntelligenceFigure 2The CIS region is relatively diverse,with the headline numbers masking markets at different stages of development.Russia dominates the region;not only is it the largest country but it is also the one with the most developed mobile market.The three largest markets,Russia,the Ukraine and Uzbekistan,together account for 80%of the regions total subscriber base.Subscriber penetration rates range from 60%in Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan to 89%in Russia.Of the limited subscriber growth to 2025,almost half will come from Uzbekistan,a country that is the third most populous but one of the least penetrated in the region.Subscriber penetration(of population)44%52%84%86%85%88%62%68%67%74%80%82%67%73%EuropeNorthern AmericaCISLatin AmericaAsia PacificMENASub-Saharan Africa0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%201720258Industry overviewThe Mobile Economy Russia&CIS 2018Russia dominates the regionSource:GSMA IntelligenceFigure 3There were around 422 million SIM connections in the region at the end of 2017(excluding cellular M2M,which represented a further 21 million connections).This figure will grow modestly to just under 437 million by 2025,boosting connections penetration in the region from 146%in 2017 to 149%by 2025.Levels of multi-SIM ownership are high in the region,well above the global average of just over 100%penetration.This reflects high levels of competition in a largely prepaid market,where handsets are primarily sourced from independent outlets,with dual SIM phones a particular feature of the Russian market.The unique subscriber and mobile connection figures detailed in this report are based on the results of a large-scale consumer survey conducted by GSMA Intelligence across 50 countries(which represent 79%of the global population)in developed and developing markets between June and August 2017,and incorporate the results of our previous surveys during 20122016.Million,%population140120100806040200100%80%60%40%20%0%ArmeniaGeorgiaMoldovaTurkmenistanKyrgystanTajikistanAzerbaijanBelarusKazakhstanUzbekistanUkraineRussiaSubscriber penetrationUnique subscribers in 201769%22%64%68%73%54%64%61%63%79%59%88%89%9Industry overviewThe Mobile Economy Russia&CIS 2018Rapid shift to mobile broadbandSource:GSMA IntelligenceFigure 4Operators across the region have been investing heavily in 4G networks and coverage over recent years,which has seen population coverage increase from 30%at the end of 2013 to around two thirds of the population by the end of 2017.The region is now seeing a rapid shift to mobile broadband(3G and 4G devices),increasingly led by the move to 4G.4G as a proportion of the connections base tripled over a two-year period to reach 16%at the end of 2017,a figure that will grow to more than two-thirds of the connections base by 2025.Russia has been the key driver of the shift to 4G;the country saw some of the regions first 4G network launches in 2012.In 2015,Beeline announced that it was stopping all new 3G investment in favour of further 4G expansion.4G coverage and network quality remain key competitive factors in the Russian market,with all four of the main operators launching LTE-Advanced networks in recent years.4G networks will account for just over a fifth of connections at the end of 2018,a figure that will surpass half by early 2022.1.24G adoption surging across the region3G2G4G5G66%29%5%48%36%16%40%37%23%57%34%9%31%38%30%18%68%12%25%64%9%9%37%52%15%39%45%32%58%5%23%39%38%100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%0%1%3%4%2%2%20152016201720182019202020212022202320242025Percentage of connections10Industry overviewThe Mobile Economy Russia&CIS 201811Industry overviewThe Mobile Economy Russia&CIS 2018While a number of countries are vying for 5G leadership,including the likes of China,the US and South Korea,Russia is likely to be a fast follower:5G network launches are expected in Russia from around the end of 2020,with the total number of 5G connections set to reach 48 million by 2025(equivalent to 19%of the connection base).Other countries in the region expected to launch 5G services by 2025 include Azerbaijan,Belarus,Georgia and Uzbekistan.The three broad use cases for 5G revolve around enhanced mobile broadband(eMBB)to add capacity and higher speeds for mobile internet access;fixed wireless access(FWA);and massive IoT deployments and emerging enterprise use cases.The initial focus in Russia is likely to be on eMBB,with fixed broadband access already a fairly mature and competitive market in Russia,while IoT and enterprise solutions will take time to develop.In practice this means that initial 5G deployments from 2020 onwards will focus on urban areas and existing hotspots,with 5G primarily an offload solution to ease network congestion and offer higher network speeds.1.35G launches in sightRussia will lead in 5G,but critical mass some way offSource:GSMA IntelligenceFigure 512423384881%76%66%54%35%22%1504030201002020202120222023202420255G coverage(%population)5G connections(million)12Industry overviewThe Mobile Economy Russia&CIS 2018To date,only MegaFon and Rostelecom have been awarded spectrum for 5G trials by the State Commission for Radio Frequencies,specifically for sharing and compatibility tests with other services.Both MTS and Beeline had requests denied due to time constraints to perform all the required sharing and compatibility tests.However,this has not stopped the operators conducting 5G trials,including during the recent FIFA World Cup.MTS created 5G demo zones at various sites during the event,demonstrating a series of 5G scenarios including HD video calls,ultra-low latency video games and high-definition video streaming.MegaFon also undertook trials during the tournament.This include