CISCO-2020年全球网络趋势报告（英文）-2019.10-95页.pdf

Trends Report2020 Global2020 Global Networking Trends Report1The evolving role of the IT network 7Global trends shaping network demands 9 Globalization 9 Digital business transformation 9 Business automation 10 Business and operational resilience 10 Sustainability 10Technology trends driving network evolution 11 The evolving application landscape 11 IoT 12 AI 13 Mobility 13 Security 14 Immersive experiences 14The need for a new kind of network 16 Cisco experts envision the emerging network architecture 17 The state of network architecture 19Contents4Introduction:State of networking for the digital age20Trends in network technology Network automation at scale 23Software-definednetworking:Justthebeginning25Intent-basednetworking:Closingtheloop25 Network functions virtualization 27 Programmability as a network foundation 272020 Global Networking Trends Report2 Open-platform IBN controllers:IT process and business integration 28 Cross-domain policy and assurance alignment:Client to workload 29AI-enabled assurance 30 What are AI,ML,and MR?31 Network complexity fuels AI adoption 32 How are ML and MR applied in a network context?34 Current and future state of AI for network assurance 34 Considerations for going forward with AI 36Networking for data and applications in multicloud environments 37 The network impact of changing application models 39 Optimizing user-to-multicloud connectivity 41Networkingforananywheredatacenter45 Considerations when architecting your network for multicloud 48Network access and wireless 49Deliveringadelightfulmobileuserexperience51PreparingITforwirelesssuccess53Currentandfuturestateofnetworkaccessreadiness53 Considerations for enabling access and wireless forthedigitalera55Changing role of network security 56Challengeswithnetworksecurity59 Tackling security challenges with an intelligent network 61 Current and future state of network security 64Trends in network technology(continued)2020 Global Networking Trends Report3Preparing for changing networking skill sets 82 The biggest information technology skills gaps 82 The biggest networking skills gaps 83 Increasing need for business and soft skills 84 Crossover roles more prominent in the future 84New roles for network strategists 85 Strategist of the future:Deliveringvaluebeyondthenetwork85New roles for network practitioners 87 Network engineers of the future:Delivering value beyond connectivity 87ITleaders:Takingactiontofillthenetworkingtalentgap 88 Recommendations for IT leaders:How to build the network team of the future 90Current and future state of network operations 69How network advances are changing network operations 69 Network operations integration into the IT process 69 Full alignment with IT and business intent 71 Automation to reduce network operations complexity 72 Preventive versus reactive problem and incident management 72 Bringing operational technology connectivity to network operations 73Introducing a next-generation network operations framework 73 Lifecycle management 74Policymanagement 75 Assurance management 76Futureofnetworkoperationspredictions2025 77Trends in network operations 65Trends in network talent 782020 Global Networking Trends Report4Section summaryKey takeaways Trends such as globalization,digital transformation,business automation and resilience,and sustainability are shaping the requirements for a new kind of network.The evolving technology landscapeemerging cloud-native models,Internet of Things,artificial intelligence(AI),mobile,cybersecurity threats,and immersive applicationsare dramatically impacting IT networking architectures and operations.The sheer scale,complexity,and dynamic nature of these demands are exceeding the capacity of human operators alone.New networks are using emerging technologies such as AI,machine learning,and automation to simplify and secure operations,enable rapid adaptability,and augment human decision making.Introduction:State of networking for the digital ageIntroduction700M50%14.6B42%53%12Xedge-hosted containers by 20211of workloads outside the enterprise data center by 20212IoT devices by 20223annual growth in business mobiletraffic,2017 to 20223of cybersecurity attacks cause over US$500,000 in damage4increase in AR/VRtrafficby20223Global business and technology trends shaping the new network2020 Global Networking Trends Report5 IT leaders and network strategists should drive a step-by-step approach to evolving each of their network domains to a controller-based model,building on automation and AI technologies.IT leaders should build a business and technology plan that aligns to business priorities and spans architecture,technology,operations,and talent.Network strategists and network practitioners should identify career and learning pathways that will give them the skill sets needed to lead this network transformation and enhance their value.Essential guidanceTop prediction“By2025,leading-edgenetworkingteamswill have intent-based networks operating across domainscampus,branch,WAN,data center,cloud,service provider,and security.Their networks will be able to comprehend business and application requirements and translate them to network and security policies.Agility will be dramatically improved through the networks intelligent automation,and networks will operate with a powerful feedback loop that provides continuous monitoring,assurance,and optimization.The intent-based network will ensure that business services are continuously delivered and protected across the network.These advances will lead to significant benefits for organizations and also for society at large.”John Apostolopoulos,CTO for enterprise networking,CiscoSection summary(continued)Introduction2020 Global Networking Trends Report6Introduction:State of networking for the digital ageInaseriesofmemoswrittenin1962,J.C.R.Licklider,adirectorattheU.S.Department of Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency,proposed an“intergalactic computer network”in which computers around the world would be interconnected to provide quick access to data and programs from anywhere.5 Onlyafewyearslater,in1965,LeonardKleinrock,LawrenceRoberts,andThomasMerrill used telephone lines to connect four computers together,effectively creating the first wide area network as well as the beginnings of the Internet.6 Morethan50yearslater,Licklidersoriginalvisionremainsthesame,asthe network continues to connect global consumers of information and services to applications and data sources.Everything else,of course,has changed.Introduction2020 Global Networking Trends Report7Todays world,driven by the exponential growth in technology performance,has become increasingly connected,digitized,distributed,and diverse.With every“thing”possessing the power to process data,compute models are poised to become dramatically more distributed and networked.And as devices and users are added to it,the value and importance of the network as measured by Metcalfes law continues to grow exponentially.Digital business continues to fuel networked innovations.IDC estimates there will be 48.9 billion connected devices in use around the world by 2023,7 and the 2018 Cisco Complete VNI Forecast predicts that the average amount of data consumed across a network will be almost 60 GB per personal computer per month.3 The evolving role of the IT networkIntroduction2020 Global Networking Trends Report8Its not surprising that,given this relentless growth,we find that IT teams are reaching a point where the sheer scale and complexity of networks is exceeding their ability to manage and secure them effectively.Whats needed now are new systems that combine technologies such as machine learning,machine reasoning,and automation to simplify operations and augment human decision making.We are now on the threshold of a new era of networking,when IT can break with the traditional ways of building and operating networks and embrace a future powered by technologies that can solve these challenges in vastly new ways.Before we examine the emerging network technology,operations,and talent trends that form the basis for this new network,lets briefly consider the global business and technology trends driving its evolution.AutomationAISecurityAccess/wirelessMulticloudTechnology trendsNew application modelsIoTArtificial intelligenceMobilityImmersive experiencesCybersecurityBusiness and global mega trendsGlobalizationDigital transformationSustainabilityProcess automationBusiness resilienceNetwork technologiesNetwork operationsNetwork talentThe new IT network Figure 1 Global business and technology trends shaping the new networkIntroduction2020 Global Networking Trends Report9A number of global and business trends are shaping the role that the network plays in an organization.Understanding these trends can help IT leaders better prepare themselves for the increasing expectations that business leaders are assigning to the network.Global trends shaping network demandsAccording to Gartner,by2023,over60%ofenterprises will deem networking as core to their digital strategies,up from less than 20%today,deemingnetworking as a strategic enabler.8 A brief look at some of these global mega trends reveals the demands they will likely place on the network.According to the World Economic Forum,we are now entering a new,digital-driven era of globalization referred to as“Globalization 4.0.”In this era,digital goods and services,enabled by digital capabilities and artificial intelligence,are the leading exports.9As the connections between systems,people,processes,locations,and devices get more distributed and complex,the economic value of the network to the organization will increase,while securing and managing the network will become morestrategicandmoredifficult.Network impactGlobalizationMore and more businesses are using digital technologies such as analytics,mobility,cloud solutions,and the Internet of Things(IoT)as the foundation for transforming their business.According to the IMD and Cisco Digital Vortex 2019report,88%ofexecutivesbelieve that digital disruption will have a major or transformative impact on their industries,comparedwithonly27%in2015.10 Digital business transformationIntroduction2020 Global Networking Trends Report10The use of automation and robotics in the coming years will continue to surge as companies look to improve quality,workforce productivity,customer satisfaction,and more.Capgemini Research Institute predicts that wide-scale adoption of automation could result in up to$471 billion in cost savings by 2022 across the automotive,retail,utilities,and manufacturing sectors.11Because of globalization and digital transformation,todays organizations are dependent on an increasingly complex web As our world grows more interconnected,organizations are being challenged to grow in environmental sustainability.In addition to the standard metrics,organizations will be judged on how well they reduce greenhouse gas emissions,preserve biodiversity and natural resources,and design products to minimize or recycle waste.Network impactNetwork impactNetwork impactNetwork impactThe inherent unpredictability of business requires a network that can quickly adjust to evolving requirements to enable new services,processes,and models.Because automation of processes is time sensitive and mission critical,the network needs to ensure that packets are delivered reliably and on time.An agile,resilient,and secure network architecture is paramount for safeguarding employees,customers,and partners and is vital to recovering data and quickly reestablishing services and access.Advanced networks offer the promise of greater efficiencies in virtually all aspects of the business,from energy consumption to resource usage to emissions reduction.Business automationBusiness and operational resilienceSustainabilityof technologies,systems,processes,supply chains,andinfrastructure.Effectivebusinessresilience requires continuously and proactively assessing operational risks,establishing and auditing contingency plans,and administering incident response training.Introduction2020 Global Networking Trends Report11Right now a number of emerging trends are dramatically changing the IT landscape.A closer look at some of these key trends reveals the impact they might have on the enterprise network.The evolving application landscapeApplications and data,of course,are at the heart of digital business,and how applications are developed,hosted,and consumed is constantly changing to meet new business needs.Here are some of the ways that applications are evolving,and in some ways,reshaping the network:Technology trends driving network evolutionApps and data are leaving the premises:Applications and data are being modularized into microservices and moved to multiple public clouds.In some cases,they are also being distributed to the network edge.And they are increasingly being consumed from multiple software-as-a-service(SaaS)providers.Apps are modular and distributed across environments:Monolithic applications are in many cases dissolving into interconnected microservices that are delivered via a variety of virtual and physical workloads,including containers,across the entire enterprise.According to the Uptime Institute,half of all workloads will be run outside the enterprise data center by 2021,either in cloud and data center infrastructures or at the network edge.2 Apps are being built continuously and rapidly:For applications developed and hosted on-premises,IT has to accelerate its own infrastructure service creation and delivery to meet the needs of applications and users,all while containing operational costs.Apps are migrating from physical to virtual to containers to serverless:The rise of containers is exposing application design and deployment Introduction2020 Global Networking Trends Report12paradigms to a much more massive disruption,namely serverless architectures,which is forcing organizations to reexamine how applications are built,the role of infrastructure,and the design of operational processes.IoTThe exploding use of IoT devices,apps,and accompanying data is driving the creation of new distributed compute models that consist of exponentially greater levels of scale and complexity.According to the Cisco“VNI Forecast Highlights Tool,”machine-to-machine(M2M)deviceswillaccountfor51%(14.6billion)ofallnetworked devices around the world by 2022.12 With applications and microservices popping up across all domains,the network should be seen more as a growing set of interconnected“nerve clusters”situated where the data is,which could be anywhere along the edge-cloud continuum.The new network needs to be able to securely connect within and between these interconnected“nerve clusters”as well as to fundamentally understand how these new application models work and to dynamically extend application policies across the network to wherever the applications are hosted.Network impactIt is estimated that by 2021,installed and in-use contain