CARNEGIE-2019年全球人工智能监测（AIGS）指数报告（英文）-2019.9-42页.pdf

+WORKING PAPERCAR N EGIE EN D OWM EN T FO R IN TER N ATIO NA L PE ACEThe Global Expansion of AI Surveillance Steven FeldsteinSEPTEMBER 2019The Global Expansion of AI Surveillance Steven Feldstein 2019 Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.All rights reserved.Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues;the views represented herein are the authors own and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie,its staff,or its trustees.No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without permission in writing from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.Please direct inquiries to:Carnegie Endowment for International PeacePublications Department1779 Massachusetts Avenue NWWashington,DC 20036P:+1 202 483 7600F:+1 202 483 1840CarnegieEndowment.orgThis publication can be downloaded at no cost at CarnegieEndowment.org.CONTENTSExecutive Summary 1Introducing the AI Global Surveillance(AIGS)Index 5Findings and Three Key Insights 7Distinguishing Between Legitimate and Unlawful Surveillance 11How Much Is China Driving the Spread of AI Surveillance?13Types of AI Surveillance 16AI Surveillance Enabling Technologies 21Conclusion 24Appendix 1:AIGS Index 25Appendix 2:Taxonomy of Digital Repression 29About the Author 30Acknowledgments 30Notes 31+CARNEGIE ENDOWMENT FOR INTERNATIONAL PEACE|1 Executive Summary Artificial intelligence(AI)technology is rapidly proliferating around the world.Startling developments keep emerging,from the onset of deepfake videos that blur the line between truth and falsehood,to advanced algorithms that can beat the best players in the world in multiplayer poker.Businesses harness AI capabilities to improve analytic processing;city officials tap AI to monitor traffic congestion and oversee smart energy metering.Yet a growing number of states are deploying advanced AI surveillance tools to monitor,track,and surveil citizens to accomplish a range of policy objectivessome lawful,others that violate human rights,and many of which fall into a murky middle ground.In order to appropriately address the effects of this technology,it is important to first understand where these tools are being deployed and how they are being used.Unfortunately,such information is scarce.To provide greater clarity,this paper presents an AI Global Surveillance(AIGS)Indexrepresenting one of the first research efforts of its kind.The index compiles empirical data on AI surveillance use for 176 countries around the world.It does not distinguish between legitimate and unlawful uses of AI surveillance.Rather,the purpose of the research is to show how new surveillance capabilities are transforming the ability of governments to monitor and track individuals or systems.It specifically asks:Which countries are adopting AI surveillance technology?What specific types of AI surveillance are governments deploying?Which countries and companies are supplying this technology?Key Findings:AI surveillance technology is spreading at a faster rate to a wider range of countries than experts have commonly understood.At least seventy-five out of 176 countries globally are actively using AI technologies for surveillance purposes.This includes:smart city/safe city platforms(fifty-six countries),facial recognition systems(sixty-four countries),and smart policing(fifty-two countries).China is a major driver of AI surveillance worldwide.Technology linked to Chinese companiesparticularly Huawei,Hikvision,Dahua,and ZTEsupply AI surveillance technology in sixty-three countries,thirty-six of which have signed onto Chinas Belt and Road Initiative(BRI).Huawei alone is responsible for providing AI surveillance technology to at least fifty countries worldwide.No other company comes close.The next largest non-Chinese supplier of AI surveillance tech is Japans NEC Corporation(fourteen countries).2 Chinese product pitches are often accompanied by soft loans to encourage governments to purchase their equipment.These tactics are particularly relevant in countries like Kenya,Laos,Mongolia,Uganda,and Uzbekistanwhich otherwise might not access this technology.This raises troubling questions about the extent to which the Chinese government is subsidizing the purchase of advanced repressive technology.But China is not the only country supplying advanced surveillance tech worldwide.U.S.companies are also active in this space.AI surveillance technology supplied by U.S.firms is present in thirty-two countries.The most significant U.S.companies are IBM(eleven countries),Palantir(nine countries),and Cisco(six countries).Other companies based in liberal democraciesFrance,Germany,Israel,Japanare also playing important roles in proliferating this technology.Democracies are not taking adequate steps to monitor and control the spread of sophisticated technologies linked to a range of violations.Liberal democracies are major users of AI surveillance.The index shows that 51 percent of advanced democracies deploy AI surveillance systems.In contrast,37 percent of closed autocratic states,41 percent of electoral autocratic/competitive autocratic states,and 41 percent of electoral democracies/illiberal democracies deploy AI surveillance technology.1 Governments in full democracies are deploying a range of surveillance technology,from safe city platforms to facial recognition cameras.This does not inevitably mean that democracies are abusing these systems.The most important factor determining whether governments will deploy this technology for repressive purposes is the quality of their governance.Governments in autocratic and semi-autocratic countries are more prone to abuse AI surveillance than governments in liberal democracies.Some autocratic governmentsfor example,China,Russia,Saudi Arabiaare exploiting AI technology for mass surveillance purposes.Other governments with dismal human rights records are exploiting AI surveillance in more limited ways to reinforce repression.Yet all political contexts run the risk of unlawfully exploiting AI surveillance technology to obtain certain political objectives.There is a strong relationship between a countrys military expenditures and a governments use of AI surveillance systems:forty of the worlds top fifty military spending countries(based on cumulative military expenditures)also use AI surveillance technology.2 The“Freedom on the Net 2018”report identified eighteen countries out of sixty-five that had accessed AI surveillance technology developed by Chinese companies.3 The AIGS Index shows that the number of those countries accessing Chinese AI surveillance technology has risen to forty-seven out of sixty-five countries in 2019.CARNEGIE ENDOWMENT FOR INTERNATIONAL PEACE|3 Notes:The AIGS Index presents a country-by-country snapshot of AI tech surveillance with the majority of sources falling between 2017 and 2019.Given the opacity of government surveillance use,it is nearly impossible to pin down by specific year which AI platforms or systems are currently in use.The AIGS Index uses the same list of independent states included in the Varieties of Democracy(V-Dem)project with two exceptions,totaling 176.4 The V-Dem country list includes all independent polities worldwide but excludes microstates with populations below 250,000.The AIGS Index does not present a complete list of AI surveillance companies operating in particular countries.The paper uses open source reporting and content analysis to derive its findings.Accordingly,there are certain built-in limitations.Some companies,such as Huawei,may have an incentive to highlight new capabilities in this field.Other companies 4 have opted to downplay their association with surveillance technology and have purposely kept documents out of the public domain.A full version of the index can be accessed online here:https:/carnegieendowment.org/files/AISurveillanceGlobalIndex.pdf An interactive map keyed to the index that visually depicts the global spread of AI surveillance technology can be accessed here:https:/carnegieendowment.org/AIGlobalSurveillance All reference source material used to build the index has been compiled into an open Zotero library.It is available here:https:/www.zotero.org/groups/2347403/global_ai_surveillance/items.CARNEGIE ENDOWMENT FOR INTERNATIONAL PEACE|5 Introducing the AI Global Surveillance(AIGS)Index AI technology was once relegated to the world of science fiction,but today it surrounds us.It powers our smartphones,curates our music preferences,and guides our social media feeds.Perhaps the most notable aspect of AI is its sudden ubiquity.In general terms,the goal of artificial intelligence is to“make machines intelligent”by automating or replicating behavior that“enables an entity to function appropriately and with foresight in its environment,”according to computer scientist Nils Nilsson.5 AI is not one specific technology.Instead,it is more accurate to think of AI as an integrated system that incorporates information acquisition objectives,logical reasoning principles,and self-correction capacities.An important AI subfield is machine learning,which is a statistical process that analyzes a large amount of information in order to discern a pattern to explain the current data and predict future uses.6 Several breakthroughs are making new achievements in the field possible:the maturation of machine learning and the onset of deep learning;cloud computing and online data gathering;a new generation of advanced microchips and computer hardware;improved performance of complex algorithms;and market-driven incentives for new uses of AI technology.7 Unsurprisingly,AIs impact extends well beyond individual consumer choices.It is starting to transform basic patterns of governance,not only by providing governments with unprecedented capabilities to monitor their citizens and shape their choices but also by giving them new capacity to disrupt elections,elevate false information,and delegitimize democratic discourse across borders.The focus of this paper is on AI surveillance and the specific ways governments are harnessing a multitude of toolsfrom facial recognition systems and big data platforms to predictive policing algorithmsto advance their political goals.Crucially,the index does not distinguish between AI surveillance used for legitimate purposes and unlawful digital surveillance.Rather,the purpose of the research is to shine a light on new surveillance capabilities that are transforming the ability of statesfrom autocracies to advanced democraciesto keep watch on individuals.AIGS IndexMethodology The AIGS Index provides a detailed empirical picture of global AI surveillance trends and describes how governments worldwide are using this technology.It addresses three primary questions:Which countries are adopting AI surveillance technology?What specific types of AI surveillance are governments deploying?Which countries and companies are supplying this technology?6 The AIGS Index is contained in Appendix 1.It includes detailed information for seventy-five countries where research indicates governments are deploying AI surveillance technology.The index breaks down AI surveillance tools into the following subcategories:1)smart city/safe city,2)facial recognition systems,and 3)smart policing.A full version of the index can be accessed online at https:/carnegieendowment.org/files/AIGlobalSurveillanceIndex.pdf.An interactive map keyed to the index that visually depicts the global spread of AI surveillance technology can be accessed at https:/carnegieendowment.org/AIGlobalSurveillance All reference source material used to build the index has been compiled into an open Zotero library.It is available at https:/www.zotero.org/groups/2347403/global_ai_surveillance/items.The majority of sources referenced by the index occur between 2017 and 2019.A small number of sources date as far back as 2012.The index uses the same list of countries found in the Varieties of Democracy(V-Dem)project with two minor exceptions.8 The V-Dem country list includes all independent polities worldwide but excludes microstates with populations below 250,000.The research collection effort combed through open-source material,country by country,in English and other languages,including news articles,websites,corporate documents,academic articles,NGO reports,expert submissions,and other public sources.It relied on systematic content analysis for each country incorporating multiple sources to determine the presence of relevant AI surveillance technology and corresponding companies.Sources were categorized into tiered levels of reliability and accuracy.First-tier sources include major print and news magazine outlets(such as the New York Times,Economist,Financial Times,and Wall Street Journal).Second-tier sources include major national media outlets.Third-tier sources include web articles,blog posts,and other less substantiated sourcing;these were only included after multiple corroboration.Given limited resources and staffing constraints(one full-time researcher plus volunteer research assistance),the index is only able to offer a snapshot of AI surveillance levels in a given country.It does not provide a comprehensive assessment of all relevant technology,government surveillance uses,and applicable companies.Because research relied primarily on content analysis and literature reviews to derive its findings,there are certain built-in limitations.Some companies,such as Huawei,may have an incentive to highlight new capabilities in this field.Other companies may wish to downplay links to surveillance technology and purposely keep documents out of the public domain.Field-based research involving on-the-ground information collection and verification would be useful to undertake.A number of countriessuch as Angola,Azerbaijan,Belarus,Hungary,Peru,Sri Lanka,Tunisia,and Turkmenistanprovided circumstantial or anecdotal evidence of AI surveillance,but not enough verifiable data to warrant inclusion in the index.CARNEGIE ENDOWMENT FOR INTERNATIONAL PEACE|7 A major difficulty was determining which AI technologies should be included in the index.AI technologies that directly support surveillance objectivessmart city/safe city platforms,facial recognition systems,smart policing systemsare included in the index.Enabling technologies that are critical to AI functioning but not directly responsible for surveillance programs are not included in the index.Another data collection challenge is that governments(and many companies)purposely hide their surveillance capabilities.As such,it is difficult to precisely determine the extent to which states are deploying algorithms to support their surveillance objectives,or whether AI use is more speculative than real.The index does not differentiate between governments that expansively deploy AI surveillance techniques versus those that use AI surveillance to a much lesser degree(for example,the index does not include a standardize