2021全球金融科技行业报告：区块链、比特币和数字金融-J.P. 摩根-2021.2.18-86页.pdf

Global Research18 February 2021 J.P.Morgan PerspectivesDigital transformation and the rise of fintech:Blockchain,bitcoin and digital finance 2021See page 79 for analyst certification and important disclosures,including non-US analyst disclosures.US Fixed Income StrategyJoshua YoungerACJ.P.Morgan Securities LLCCross-Asset Fundamental StrategyJohn NormandACJ.P.Morgan Securities plcGlobal Markets Strategy Nikolaos PanigirtzoglouACJ.P.Morgan Securities plc Chair of Global Research Joyce ChangACJ.P.Morgan Securities LLCU.S.Mid and Small Cap BanksSteven Alexopoulos,CFAACJ.P.Morgan Securities LLCBanks and Financial Services Katherine LeiACJ.P.Morgan Securities(Asia Pacific)Limited/J.P.Morgan Broking(Hong Kong)LimitedAsia-ex BanksHarsh Wardhan ModiACJ.P.Morgan Securities Singapore Private Limited/J.P.Morgan Securities(Asia Pacific)Limited/J.P.Morgan Broking(Hong Kong)Limited Long-term StrategyJan LoeysACJ.P.Morgan Securities LLC Payments,Processors and IT Services Tien-tsin Huang,CFA ACtien-J.P.Morgan Securities LLC BanksRie NishiharaACJPMorgan Securities Japan Co.,Ltd.InternetAlex YaoACJ.P.Morgan Securities(Asia Pacific)Limited/J.P.Morgan Broking(Hong Kong)LimitedStrategic ResearchKimberly HaranoACJ.P.Morgan Securities LLCJ.P.Morgan Perspectives Digital transformation and the rise of fintech:Blockchain,Bitcoin and digital finance 20212Global ResearchJ.P.Morgan Perspectives18 February 2021Joyce Chang(1-212)834-Jan Loeys(1-212)834- Kimberly Harano(1-212)834-J.P.Morgans Approach to BlockchainJ.P.Morgan is a leader in blockchain technology and has been building innovative solutions for clients since 2015.This innovation has spanned from protocol-level development to new payment-specific networks and applications.In 2020,J.P.Morgan launched a new business unit called Onyx by J.P.Morgan that houses the firms blockchain efforts.In doing so,J.P.Morgan became the first global bank to create a dedicated unit to develop and scale blockchain-based products.Onyxs mission is to reimagine how businesses can be built,run,and transformed with the new infrastructure,networks,and services enabled by distributed ledger technology.Onyx has a significant portfolio of new products,including:a blockchain-based intraday repo application where J.P.Morgan executed the first live intraday repo trade on a blockchain;Liink by J.P.MorganSM,the worlds largest blockchain-based institutional network with increasing membership and offerings;and JPM Coin,a blockchain-based payment rail and account ledger.J.P.Morgan plans to continue increasing its investment in blockchain technology as many of these efforts mature and achieve scale at a global level.J.P.Morgan is excited to make progress on several of the highest impact blockchain initiatives in the industry:Liink by J.P.Morgan:First piloted in 2017 as the Interbank Information Network(IIN),Liink is the first bank-led production-grade,scalable,and peer-to-peer blockchain-based network.It addresses the longstanding challenges of sharing payments-related information across institutions.More than half of the worlds largest banks have signed up to join the new paradigm,using blockchain to simplify information exchange around how money moves.Liink also enables banks to monetize their data assets by sharing information on and developing applications for the network.*Current applications on Liink include:Confirm,which allows participants to exchange information to validate account information prior to payment initiation across geographies and most common payment types;Resolve,which allows participants to exchange information to resolve compliance-related inquiries;andSmart check routing to streamline the processing of checks,as J.P.Morgan enables check originating financial service providers to directly transmit check transactions to lockbox providers using digital means.*Digital Assets&Intraday Repos:Onyx Digital Assets is a new Onyx platform for digital asset transaction use cases.At the end of 2020,J.P.Morgan launched Onyx Digital Assets,along with its first live application for the execution of intraday repurchase transactions or repos,which allowed for the simultaneous exchange of cash for securities on blockchain without physical movement of securities.J.P.Morgan recognized the opportunity to build new financial technology with the initial goal of significantly enhancing active intraday liquidity management and reducing reliance on unsecured funding.By more efficiently securing a portion of liquidity provision to J.P.Morgan clients with intraday collateral,J.P.Morgan aims to reduce counterparty credit risk related to intraday liquidity financing and the resulting market risk.Project Ubin:Onyx has been partnering with the Monetary Authority of Singapore(MAS)on a multi-year,multi-phase,collaborative project to explore the use of blockchain and Distributed Ledger Technology(DLT)for clearing and settlement of payments and securities.J.P.Morgan is now in the process of commercializing the learnings from Project Ubin.Our initial focus is on building a platform being developed with two world-leading partners that is expected to launch in Singapore with availability to banks in that country.The initial focus will be on domestic multi-currency payment clearing,with many other services to follow.*The pipeline of R&D projects at Onyx is equally as exciting,including Digital Identity and quantum resistant networks.J.P.Morgan fervently believes that the financial services industry is still just barely scratching the surface of blockchain use cases and that as far as blockchain is concerned,the best is yet to come.*Onyx by J.P.Morgan*Future products and services under development;features and timelines are subject to change at J.P.Morgans sole discretion.Offering as live products subject to completion of internal review and obtaining any required consents.3Global ResearchJ.P.Morgan Perspectives18 February 2021Joyce Chang(1-212)834-Jan Loeys(1-212)834- Kimberly Harano(1-212)834-Contributing AuthorsUS Fixed Income Strategy Henry St JJ.P.Morgan Securities LLCColin W PJ.P.Morgan Securities LLCEconomic and Policy ResearchMichael FJPMorgan Chase Bank NACross-Asset Fundamental StrategyFederico MJ.P.Morgan Securities plcGlobal Markets Strategy Mika IJ.P.Morgan Securities plcNishant Poddar,CFAJ.P.Morgan India Private LimitedEmerging Markets Asia,Economic and Policy ResearchHaibin ZJPMorgan Chase Bank,N.A.,Hong KongEuropean Equity Research CEEMEA Financials,Conglomerates&StrategyNaresh BJ.P.Morgan Securities plcCEEMEA BanksSamuel GJ.P.Morgan Securities plcMehmet SJ.P.Morgan Securities plcNeha RJ.P.Morgan India Private LimitedUS Equity Research Payments,Processors&IT ServicesReginald L.Smith,CFAJ.P.Morgan Securities LLCAndrew PJ.P.Morgan Securities LLCPuneet JJ.P.Morgan Securities LLCHitesh Malla J.P.Morgan India Private LimitedU.S.Mid and Small Cap BanksAlex LJ.P.Morgan Securities LLCJanet LJ.P.Morgan Securities LLCAnthony Elian,CFAJ.P.Morgan Securities LLCNikhil PJ.P.Morgan India Private LimitedAsia Equity Research Banks&Financial ServicesDaqi JJ.P.Morgan Securities(Asia Pacific)Limited/J.P.Morgan Broking(Hong Kong)LimitedPeter Zhang J.P.Morgan Securities(Asia Pacific)Limited/J.P.Morgan Broking(Hong Kong)LimitedAllen Li J.P.Morgan Securities(China)Company LimitedBanks and ConglomeratesDaniel Andrew Tan,CFAJ.P.Morgan Securities Philippines,Inc.India Financials and Real EstateSaurabh KJ.P.Morgan India Private LimitedASEAN TMTRanjan Sharma,CFAJ.P.Morgan Securities Singapore Private LimitedInsuranceMW KJ.P.Morgan Securities(Asia Pacific)Limited/J.P.Morgan Broking(Hong Kong)Limited4Global ResearchJ.P.Morgan Perspectives18 February 2021Joyce Chang(1-212)834-Jan Loeys(1-212)834- Kimberly Harano(1-212)834-Table of ContentsExecutive summary.5Bitcoin is an economic side show the rise of digital finance is the real post-COVID-19 story.6The rally in Bitcoin:A side story of COVID-19A review of the past year for Bitcoin:Competition with gold as“alternative”currency is here to stay.16What cryptocurrencies have and havent done for multi-asset portfolios:Mainstreaming is reducing diversification benefits and leading to failure during a crisis.22Only as strong as the foundation:Risks inherent in the microstructure of Bitcoin markets.30The rise of digital currencies:Not yet transformationalYou say you want a revolution:Who is permissioned to utilize digital currencies?.35Chinas CBDC:Constrained by capital controls and slow progress in RMB internationalization.46The Japanese case:Two moves toward establishment of Digital Currency and the impact on payment flow.49The rise of digital finance:The real transformational story of COVID-19Payments&Processors:Modern providers gained ground over legacy with consolidation to come.53US regional banks positioned as endgame winners in the digital age.55China Banks:Going Mobile Evaluating Banks Digital Push.60FinTech in ASEAN:Going mainstream.63UAE Digital Banks:Non-banks are growing fast compared to the rest of MENA.68CEEMEA Banks:COVID-19 catalyzing digital banking acceleration.72Appendix.755Global ResearchJ.P.Morgan Perspectives18 February 2021Joyce Chang(1-212)834-Jan Loeys(1-212)834- Kimberly Harano(1-212)834-Executive summaryCOVID-19 accelerates the rise of digital finance The rise of digital finance and demand for fintech is the real financial transformational story of the COVID-19 era,not the rally in Bitcoin prices but the recent announcements of greater acceptance and adoption by Tesla,BNY Mellon and Mastercard confirm the increased investor demand and interest in transacting payments in cryptocurrencies.Competition between banks and fintech is intensifying,with Big Tech possessing the most potent digital platforms due to their access to customer data.Co-opetition between Fin and Tech players lies ahead,with banks stepping up investment to narrow the technology gap,and the battle between US banks and non-bank fintech is also playing out on the regulatory front.Asia continues to drive third-party(noncash)global growth in payments.Traditional banks could emerge as endgame winners in the digital age of banking due to their advantage from deposit franchise,risk management and regulation.The rise of Bitcoin is an economic side show but Bitcoin is here to stay as an“alternative”currency Bitcoin prices were boosted by Teslas$1.5bn investment with momentum traders amplifying the up move,but current prices are well above our most recent estimates of fair value based on mining costs and risk capital equivalence with gold.In the long term,we estimate that theoretically Bitcoin prices would need to rise to$146k for the market cap to match the total private sector investment in gold via ETFs or bars and coins.Crypto assets continue to rank as the poorest hedge for major drawdowns in Equities,with questionable diversification benefits at prices so far above production costs,while correlations with cyclical assets are rising as crypto ownership is mainstreamed.Watch the tail risk to Bitcoin markets as a sudden loss of confidence in USDT would likely generate a severe liquidity shock,jeopardizing access to the largest pools of demand and liquidity.Financial innovation has outpaced regulation with global financial stability concerns rising as Global Stablecoins(GSCs)are developed Regulation has been outpaced by innovation,creating an uneven playing field,as it is easier and cheaper for fintech to offer similar products and services.A return of antitrust is a risk,mostly to Big Tech,and future regulation will focus on who is permissioned to use Global Stablecoin arrangements and gain access to the Federal Reserves payments system as well as the appropriate level of oversight,supervision and regulation.Central banks representing 20%of the worlds population are likely to issue Central Bank Digital Currencies(CBDCs)in the next three years,but transformative impact is unclear given restrictions based on jurisdiction.J.P.Morgan Perspectives bringstogether thematic and strategic views across J.P.Morgans Global Research franchise,examining big ideas and critical global issues transforming investment markets.This is our annual update on the latest developments covering the adoption and evolution of Blockchain technology,Cryptocurrencies,Central Bank Digital Currencies,Global Stablecoins and digital finance.We also highlight regulatory issues that lie ahead as innovation has outpaced regulation,creating an uneven playing field.We hope this series will both inform and foster debate on evolving economic,investment and social trends.Joyce Chang,Chair of Global Research 6Global ResearchJ.P.Morgan Perspectives18 February 2021Joyce Chang(1-212)834-Jan Loeys(1-212)834- Kimberly Harano(1-212)834-Bitcoin is an economic side show the rise of digital finance is the real post-COVID-19 storyFintech has gone mainstream,and we highlight the rise of digital finance in the COVID-19 era in our annual review of blockchain technology,Bitcoin and other digital currencies.Bitcoin prices have continued their meteoric rise with Tesla,BNY Mellon and Mastercards announcements of greater acceptance of cryptocurrencies.but fintech innovation and increased demand for digital services are the real COVID-19 story with the rise of online start-ups and expansion of digital platforms into credit and payments.Expect co-opetition between Fin and Tech players with banks focused on narrowing the technology gap,while Big Tech benefits from a large customer base and access to their data.Investor and regulatory shifts will play out as Big Tech looks to issue Global Stablecoins(GSCs)and regulation has been outpaced by innovation,creating an uneven playing field.Traditional banks could emerge as endgame winners in the digital age of banking due to their advantage from deposit franchise,risk management and regulation.Bitcoin prices boosted by momentum traders,but current prices are well above our most recent estimates of fair value based on mining costs and risk capital equivalence with gold.In the long term,we estimate that theoretically Bitcoin prices would need to rise to$146k for the market cap to match the total private sector investment in gold via ETFs or bars and coins.Crypto assets rank as the poorest hedge for major drawdowns in Equities,and diversification benefits are unclear at prices so far above production costs,while increased ownership is raising correlations with cyclical assets.Watch the tail risk to Bitcoin markets as a sudden loss of confidence in USDT would likely generate a severe liquidity shock,jeopardizing access to the largest pools of demand and liquidity.Some central banks are likely to issue Central Bank Digital Currencies(CBDC)in the next 3 years but transformative impact is still questionable given restrictions based on jurisdiction.COVID-19 accelerates the rise of digital finance and retail investmentCOVID-19 has accelerated digitalization and technological change in the finance industry,with rising concerns that disruptive technologies