2019年海外宏观中期展望：全球经济走弱货币宽松美元指数下行-20190624-东北证券-32页.pdf

/20192019GDPCPI30000.6167 62019062020192018112620181102 S0550518040001 18917252281 S0550118060022 13817489814 S0550119010010 18010018933 2019-6-242 1 2 5 5 4 4 6/3 6 1 3 9/2 0 1 9 0 6 2 4 1 7:0 0 2/32 1.51.1.51.1.1.51.1.2.61.2.91.3.111.4.122.122.1.132.1.1.132.1.2.0.6%.142.2.173.193.1.203.1.1.203.1.2.213.2.224.244.1.244.1.1.244.1.2.264.2.274.3.29 1.5 2.5 3GDP.5 4GDP.5 5.6 6.6 7.6 8.7 95.7 10PMI.82 1 2 5 5 4 4 6/3 6 1 3 9/2 0 1 9 0 6 2 4 1 7:0 0 3/32 11PMI.8 12GDP.8 13.8 14.9 15.9 16.9 17.10 18.10 19.10 20GDP.11 21PMI.11 22.11 23GDP.12 24PMI.12 2520181.12 26.12 27PCEPCE.13 28CPI.13 29CPI.13 30.13 31CPI.14 32.14 33.14 34.15 35.16 36.16 376.18 383.18 397.18 40100%.18 41.19 42.20 43.21 44.21 45.21 46IMF.21 47“7”.22 48GDP.23 49.23 50.23 51.24 521995.25 532015.25 54.26 55.272 1 2 5 5 4 4 6/3 6 1 3 9/2 0 1 9 0 6 2 4 1 7:0 0 4/32 56.28 57.28 58.28 59.28 60.28 61.29 62.30 1.17 2 1 2 5 5 4 4 6/3 6 1 3 9/2 0 1 9 0 6 2 4 1 7:0 0 5/321.1.1.1.1.1.201820192018GDP2.9%2019GDP3.1%1 2 Wind Wind GDPGDP 3GDP 4GDP Wind Wind GDP2 1 2 5 5 4 4 6/3 6 1 3 9/2 0 1 9 0 6 2 4 1 7:0 0 6/32GDP 5 6 Wind Wind 7 Wind 1.1.2.2 1 2 5 5 4 4 6/3 6 1 3 9/2 0 1 9 0 6 2 4 1 7:0 0 7/321.1.2.1.4%453.6%6050320193.7%20203.8%20213.9%4.3%57.518 8 95 Wind Wind 1.1.2.2.PMIGDPPMIGDPPMIGDP1 PMI45PMIPMIPMIPMI 2 1 2 5 5 4 4 6/3 6 1 3 9/2 0 1 9 0 6 2 4 1 7:0 0 8/32 10PMI 11PMI Wind Wind GDP70%GDP 20192.88%20184.9%45 12GDP 13 Wind Wind GDP 40.61%20171 2 1 2 5 5 4 4 6/3 6 1 3 9/2 0 1 9 0 6 2 4 1 7:0 0 9/32 14 15 Wind Wind 1.2.2017GDP2.8%2018GDP1.2%2018 16 Wind GDPGDP3292 1 2 5 5 4 4 6/3 6 1 3 9/2 0 1 9 0 6 2 4 1 7:0 0 10/321031320191.7%1.1%61.2%17 18 Wind Wind 14.29%7.56%19 Wind 2 1 2 5 5 4 4 6/3 6 1 3 9/2 0 1 9 0 6 2 4 1 7:0 0 11/32 1.3.GDP0.6%2.2%6PMI49.5PMI 20GDP Wind 21PMI 22 Wind Wind GDP2%60.5%2%PMI2 1 2 5 5 4 4 6/3 6 1 3 9/2 0 1 9 0 6 2 4 1 7:0 0 12/32 23GDP 24PMI Wind Wind 1.4.2520181 26 Wind Wind 2.2 1 2 5 5 4 4 6/3 6 1 3 9/2 0 1 9 0 6 2 4 1 7:0 0 13/32 2.1.PCE2%1.5%2%CPICPI1%2%5 27PCEPCE 28CPI Wind Wind 29CPI 30 Wind Wind 2.1.1.CPICPI2011 2 1 2 5 5 4 4 6/3 6 1 3 9/2 0 1 9 0 6 2 4 1 7:0 0 14/32 31CPI 32 Wind IMFWind 4585 33 Wind 2.1.2.0.6%IMFThe Impact of US-China Trade Tensions34050025%20%200010%10%2 1 2 5 5 4 4 6/3 6 1 3 9/2 0 1 9 0 6 2 4 1 7:0 0 15/3230003000 34 IMF 50025%200010%25%615300025%200030002 1 2 5 5 4 4 6/3 6 1 3 9/2 0 1 9 0 6 2 4 1 7:0 0 16/32 IMF25%20%10%20%20003000 201813.95 35 36 Wind Wind 200015%12%3000 30000.62 1 2 5 5 4 4 6/3 6 1 3 9/2 0 1 9 0 6 2 4 1 7:0 0 17/322%2.2.2018163 1 614 25bp 7.50%3 66 25bp 5.75%64 25bp 1.25%20168 531 50bp 522 50bp 4.50%4.00%59 25bp 4.5%2016 58 25bp 1.75%1.5%201611 426 25bp 8.75%425 50bp 17.5%415 25bp 9.00%44 25bp 6.25%6.00%326 50bp 13.50%322 25bp 4.75%319 25bp 1.25%12 313 25bp 6.75%6.5%226 25bp 4.75%4.50%214 100bp 15.75%16.75%27 25bp 6.25%62.25%2.5%FOMC1788311425bp250bp 2 1 2 5 5 4 4 6/3 6 1 3 9/2 0 1 9 0 6 2 4 1 7:0 0 18/32 376 383 FOMC FOMC CME Group725bp69.8%50bp30.2%100%125bp 397 40100%CME Group CME Group 25%0.6%20016.5%200361.0%550bp200795.25%20080.25%500bp2.5%250bp 72 1 2 5 5 4 4 6/3 6 1 3 9/2 0 1 9 0 6 2 4 1 7:0 0 19/32 41 Wind 66202012019420199TLTROTLTRO 102020 3.2 1 2 5 5 4 4 6/3 6 1 3 9/2 0 1 9 0 6 2 4 1 7:0 0 20/32 3.1.3.1.1.57.6%13.6%11.9%1010 42 Wind 2 1 2 5 5 4 4 6/3 6 1 3 9/2 0 1 9 0 6 2 4 1 7:0 0 21/32 43 44 Wind Wind 3.1.2.GDPGDPGDPGDPGDP IMF20192.9%2.3%2.1%3.6%3.3%45 46IMF Wind IMF 2 1 2 5 5 4 4 6/3 6 1 3 9/2 0 1 9 0 6 2 4 1 7:0 0 22/32 3.2.4253.5%625RMB777 477 Wind 2018GDP6.4%2 1 2 5 5 4 4 6/3 6 1 3 9/2 0 1 9 0 6 2 4 1 7:0 0 23/32 48GDP 49 Wind Wind 5M28.5%10.6%2018 50 Wind 2 1 2 5 5 4 4 6/3 6 1 3 9/2 0 1 9 0 6 2 4 1 7:0 0 24/327 53.1+100%1.75 51 Wind G20 4.4.1.4.1.1.5200010%25%30002 1 2 5 5 4 4 6/3 6 1 3 9/2 0 1 9 0 6 2 4 1 7:0 0 25/32 3000 IMF1995 521995 532015 IMF IMF 25%0.6%3000 2 1 2 5 5 4 4 6/3 6 1 3 9/2 0 1 9 0 6 2 4 1 7:0 0 26/32 54 Fox News 4.1.2.4811041720051765 20181690676213 2 1 2 5 5 4 4 6/3 6 1 3 9/2 0 1 9 0 6 2 4 1 7:0 0 27/32 55 Wind 710 4.2.2016329103167 10541031 2 1 2 5 5 4 4 6/3 6 1 3 9/2 0 1 9 0 6 2 4 1 7:0 0 28/32 56 57 58 59 60 2 1 2 5 5 4 4 6/3 6 1 3 9/2 0 1 9 0 6 2 4 1 7:0 0 29/3240%(IMF)510(GDP)4%GDP1.5%1125%5GDP10.5%30%7.5%2008 17%61 Wind 4.3.2 1 2 5 5 4 4 6/3 6 1 3 9/2 0 1 9 0 6 2 4 1 7:0 0 30/32 62 Wind 2 1 2 5 5 4 4 6/3 6 1 3 9/2 0 1 9 0 6 2 4 1 7:0 0 31/32 “”R3ABAAABS “”615%65%15%6-5%5%65%15%615%6 6 6 2 1 2 5 5 4 4 6/3 6 1 3 9/2 0 1 9 0 6 2 4 1 7:0 0 32/32 http:/400-600-0686 6666 130119 28D 100033 729 200127 1224D 518000 021-20361121 13564972909 021-20361229 17717370432 021-20361258 18221628116 021-20361267 13956071185 chen_ 021-20361258 13120758587 L 021-20361121 18516562656 021-20361112 18801903156 010-58034553 18515018255 010-58034557 18501954588 010-58034555 13701194494 010-58034563 18501944669 010-58034565 18601018177 010-58034561 18600646766 0755-33975865 18938029743 liu_ 0755-33975865 15989508876 0755-33975865 13662669201 0755-33975865 18682251183 0755-33975865 18516772531 2 1 2 5 5 4 4 6/3 6 1 3 9/2 0 1 9 0 6 2 4 1 7:0 0扫码关注：金融干货精选获取更多干货资料