2019年世界白银调查报告（英）-2019.8-105页.pdf

THE SILVER INSTITUTE1400 I Street,NW,Suite 550Washington,D.C.20005Tel:+1-202-835-0185Email:infosilverinstitute.orgwww.silverinstitute.orgWORLD SILVER SURVEY 2019World Silver Survey 2019The Silver Institute/RefinitivTHE SILVER INSTITUTE(major funding companies of The Silver Institute)Asahi RefiningCia.de Minas Buenaventura,S.A.A.Coeur Mining,Inc.Endeavour Silver Corp.First Majestic Silver Corp.Fresnillo plcHecla Mining CompanyHochschild Mining plcIndustrias Peoles,S.A.B.de C.V.Pan American Silver Corp.Wheaton Precious MetalsBack Cover Image:Sterling Silver Dazzle Pendant Necklace by NambPrinted by Park Communications,London 28769Front Cover Image:Macro close up of a pure silver bullion coin Michael Turner-DRefinitivThe Refinitiv Building,30 South ColonnadeLondon,E14 5EP,UKE-mail:GFMSWeb: Silver Institute1400 I Street,NW,Suite 550Washington,D.C.,20005Telephone:+1-202-835-0185 infosilverinstitute.orgwww.silverinstitute.orgWORLD SILVER SURVEY 2019BYCameron Alexander,Director of Precious Metals Research Bruce Alway,Director of Base Metals Research Saida Litosh,Manager of Metals ResearchJohann Wiebe,Lead AnalystWenyu Yao,Lead AnalystDebajit Saha,Senior AnalystKaren Norton,Senior AnalystSamson Li,Senior Analyst Federico Guy,Senior Analyst Natalie Scott-Gray,Senior AnalystSeema Goenka,AnalystOTHER CONTRIBUTORS:IFR Production,RefinitivProduced for The Silver Institute by the GFMS team at RefinitivABOUT THE MAJOR SPONSORS OF WORLD SILVER SURVEY 2019Coeur Mining,Inc.Coeur Mining,Inc.is a well-diversified,growing precious metals producer with five mines in North America employing approximately 2,000 people.Coeurs wholly-owned operations include the Palmarejo silver-gold complex in Mexico,the Silvertip silver-zinc-lead mine in British Columbia,the Rochester silver-gold mine in Nevada,the Kensington gold mine in Alaska,and the Wharf gold mine in South Dakota.In addition,the Company owns the La Preciosa project in Mexico,a silver-gold exploration stage project,and conducts exploration activities throughout North America.Fresnillo plc Fresnillo plc is the worlds largest primary silver producer and Mexicos second largest gold producer,listed on the London and Mexican Stock Exchanges under the symbol FRES.Fresnillo plc has seven operating mines,all of them in Mexico-Fresnillo,Saucito,Cinega(including the San Ramn satellite mine),Herradura,Soledad-Dipolos1,Noche Buena and San Julin(phase I),three development projects-San Julin(phase II),the Pyrites plant,and second line of DLP at Herradura,and four advanced exploration projects Orisyvo,Juanicipio,Las Casas Rosario&Cluster Cebollitas and Centauro Deep,as well as a number of other long term exploration prospects.In total,Fresnillo plc has mining concessions covering approximately 2 million hectares in Mexico.Fresnillo plc has a strong and long tradition of mining,a proven track record of mine development,reserve replacement,and production costs in the lowest quartile of the cost curve for silver.Fresnillo plcs goal is to maintain the Groups position as the worlds largest primary silver company,producing 65 million ounces of silver per year by 2019,having already surpassed the gold target of 750,000 ounces.1 Operations at Soledad and Dipolos are currently suspended.Industrias Peoles,S.A.B.de C.V.Peoles is a mining group with integrated operations in smelting and refining non-ferrous metals,and producing chemicals.Peoles is the worlds top producer of refined silver,metallic bismuth and sodium sulfate,and the leading Latin American producer of refined gold and lead.The Company was founded in 1887 and it is part of“Grupo BAL”,a privately held diversified group of independent Mexican companies.Peoles shares have traded on the Mexican Stock Exchange since 1968 under the ticker PE&OLES.Peoles highlights:Began operations in 1887 as a mining company.Has integrated operations in the areas of exploration,mining,metallurgy and chemicals.Listed on the Mexican Stock Exchange since 1968;the stock is included in the IPC index.One of the largest net exporters in Mexicos private sector.Pan American Silver Corp.Pan American Silver is the worlds premier silver mining company,with large silver reserves and a diversified portfolio of producing mines.On February 22,2019,we completed our acquisition of Tahoe Resources.Our portfolio of assets now includes 10 operating mines located in Canada,Mexico,Peru,Bolivia and Argentina.Through the transaction,we also acquired the Escobal mine in Guatemala,one of the most attractive silver assets in the world.Operations at Escobal are currently suspended,pending,among other things,the completion of an ILO 169 consultation process with Xinka indigenous communities to be undertaken by Guatemalas Ministry of Energy and Mines.Pan American intends to support this consultation process,as well as engage the local communities and Xinka populations in an effort to build long-lasting,trusting relationships for the benefit of all stakeholders.In 2018,Pan American produced 24.8 million ounces of silver and 178,900 ounces of gold.Consolidated cash costs1 to produce an ounce of silver were$3.35,net of by-product credits,and all-in sustaining costs per silver ounce sold1 were$10.73.These results do not reflect the newly acquired Tahoe assets.At December 31,2018,our proven and probable silver and gold mineral reserves2 were approximately 279.8 million and 1.7 million ounces,respectively.Our measured and indicated mineral resources2 were approximately 682.1 million ounces of silver and 478.5 thousand ounces of gold as at the end of 2018.These results do not reflect the newly acquired Tahoe assets.Pan Americans asset portfolio offers unparalleled upside for investors seeking exposure to silver through the potential restart of the Escobal mine and development of the Navidad project,as well as our major exploration discovery at La Colorada.In 2019,we celebrate our silver anniversary:25 years of operating in Latin America,earning an industry-leading reputation for operational excellence and corporate social responsibility.Notes:1 Cash costs and all-in sustaining costs per silver ounce sold are non-GAAP measures and do not have standardized meanings prescribed by IFRS.Please refer to the Alternative Performance(Non-GAAP)Measures section in Pan Americans Managements Discussion&Analysis for the period ended December 31,2018(the MD&A)for further information on these measures.The MD&A is available at .2 Please refer to the complete mineral resource and mineral reserve information on the“Reserves&Resources”page of our website at for additional information.Wheaton Precious MetalsWheaton Precious Metals is one of the largest precious metals streaming companies in the world.The Company offers investors leverage to increasing precious metals prices,a sustainable dividend,and both organic and acquisition growth opportunities.Wheatons operating costs are contractually set at the time the stream is entered into,allowing investors to benefit from cost predictability and strong margin growth in an environment of rising metal prices.Wheaton currently has streaming agreements covering 19 operating mines and 9 development stage projects.The Companys production profile is driven by a high-quality portfolio of low-cost,long-life assets,including a gold stream on Vales Salobo mine,and silver streams on Glencores Antamina mine and Goldcorps Peasquito mine.World Silver Survey 2019 has been kindly supportedby the following companiesMAJOR SPONSORSSPONSORSCONTRIBUTORSAmrapali Industries LtdAsahi RefiningInternational Depository Services GroupTanaka Kikinzoku Kogyo K.K.TD BankValcambi saCoeur Mining,Inc.Fresnillo plcPan American Silver Corp.Wheaton Precious MetalsIndustrias Peoles S.A.B.de C.V.Hochschild Mining plcCompaia de Minas Buenaventura S.A.A.Hecla Mining CompanyItalpreziosiScotiabankKGHM Polska Miedz S.A.Endeavour Silver Corp.SprottThe World Silver Survey has been published annually by The Silver Institute since 1990.Hard copies of previous editions can be obtained by contacting The Silver Institute at the address and telephone number on the opening page.All previous editions are available for download at The Silver Institutes website.For copies outside of North America,contact Refinitiv at the address on the page overleaf.ISSN:1059-6992(Print)ISSN:2372-2312(Online)ISBN-13:978-1-880936-32-0(2019 WSS Print)ISBN:978-1-880936-33-7(2019 WSS PDF Online)Copyright April 2019.The Silver Institute and Refinitiv.We(and where relevant,any identified contributors or co-authors)are the owner or the licensee of all intellectual property rights in this document.This document is protected by copyright laws and treaties around the world.All such rights are reserved.No organization or individual is permitted to reproduce or transmit all or part of this document(including without limitation extracts such as tables and graphs),whether by photocopying or storing in any medium by electronic means or otherwise,without the written permission of The Silver Institute and Refinitiv.In cases where we have provided our document electronically,only the authorized subscriber,in respect of whom an individual user license has been granted,may download a copy of this document.Additional user licenses may be purchased on request.Your reproduction,transmission,printing off,copying or downloading(where relevant)of all or part of this document in breach of these terms may result in civil or criminal actions against you.While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information in this document,the content of this document is provided without any guarantees,conditions or warranties as to its accuracy,completeness or reliability.It is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell precious metal,related products,commodities,securities or related financial instruments.To the extent permitted by law,we,other members of our group of companies and third parties connected to us hereby expressly exclude:All conditions,warranties and other terms which might otherwise be implied by statute,common law or the law of equity.Any liability for any direct,indirect or consequential loss or damage incurred by any person or organization reading or relying on this document including(without limitation)loss of income or revenue,loss of business,loss of profits or contracts,loss of anticipated savings,loss of goodwill and whether caused by tort(including negligence),breach of contract or otherwise,even if foreseeable.This is the twenty-ninth annual edition of the World Silver Survey produced for The Silver Institute.The World Silver Survey 2019 was produced by the GFMS team of metals market analysts at Refinitiv.The information contained herein is based in part on the analysis of publicly available data such as hallmarking series,trade statistics,company reports and other public-domain information.More importantly,it is also based on a large series of interviews with the industrys main players,carried out over the year by the team.This work generates the essential data to allow the compilation of reliable estimates for world supply and demand and inform the analysis of market structures,and the degree of significance of any changes and developments.Refinitiv is grateful to the many miners,refiners,bullion dealers,bankers and fabricators throughout the world who have contributed their time and information to ensuring that the picture of the industry described in the World Silver Survey is as complete and accurate as possible.Refinitiv,London The Refinitiv Building,30 South ColonnadeLondon,E14 5EP,UKE-mail:GFMSUNITS USED:supply and demand data are given in units of million troy ounces(Moz)rounded to one decimal place.1 Moz=31.103 t(metric tons)1 ton=32,151 troy ounces1 ton=1,000,000 grams(g)TERMINOLOGY:“-”Not available or not applicable.“0.0”Zero or less than 0.05.“dollar”,“$”US dollar unless otherwise stated.“Identifiable Investment”The sum of physical bar investment and all coin fabrication,plus the net change in Exchange Traded Product(ETP)holdings.“Physical Surplus/Deficit”The difference between the supply of new and secondary silver to the market in a calendar year and measurable demand for physical silver.This excludes opaque Over the Counter(OTC)investment in silver and commercial bank transactions.“Net Balance”The physical surplus or deficit of silver with the addition of highly visible ETP and exchange stock inventory changes.PRICES:Unless otherwise stated,US dollar prices are for the London Silver Market fixing prior to August 15,2014.As of this date prices refer to the LBMA Silver Price as successor to the silver fix.TABLE ROUNDING:Throughout the tables and charts,totals may not add due to independent rounding.TABLE OF CONTENTS1.Summary and Outlook8Supply in 2018 10 Demand in 2018 102.Silver Prices12 Chinese Silver Premia 15 Silver in Other Currencies 15 Gold:Silver Ratio 153.Investment17 Overview 17 OTC Market 18 Exchange Traded Products 19 Physical Bar Investment 22 Commodity Exchanges Activity 23 Coins and Medals 244.Mine Supply26 Mine Production 26 By-product Analysis&Outlook 34 Production Costs 35 Producer Hedging 365.Supply from Above-Ground Stocks37 Overview 37 Identifiable Bullion Stocks 38 Custodian Vault Stocks 39 Futures Exchanges 41 Government Stocks 42 Industry 42 Scrap 446.Silver Bullion Trade45 Europe 45 The Americas 47 Middle East and Indian Sub-Continent 48 East Asia 497.Industrial Fabrication51 Industrial Fabrication by Region 53 Photography 62 Photovoltaic 648.Jewelry and Silverware67 Jewelry 67 Silverware 749.Appendices78MAJOR TABLES World Silver Supply and Demand 8 Coins and Medals 25 Mine Production 28 Scrap Supply 43 Industrial Applications 52 Electrical and Electronics 58 Brazing Alloys and Solders 62 Photography 63 Jewelry 73 Silverware 76FOCUS BOXES World Silver Survey:Supply and Demand Methodology 9 Silver and Other Commodity Prices 16 Investment in Commodities 20 Corporate Activity 32 Silver ETP Holdings by Vault Location 40 Silver Ethylene Oxide Catalyst Market 60 New uses of silver-The automotive industry 61 Silver Jewelry-Is the U.S.retail Industry ready for the Millennials?708WORLD SILVER SURVEY 2019SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK1.SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK Filtering out the noise in order to lift out the major changes that characterized the industry last year,three main developments stand out.First,physical demand increased 4%in 2018,propelled by a modest rise in jewelry and silverware fabrication,and a jump in coin and bar demand.Indeed,investment in silver bars and coins grew by an impressive 20%last year,driven by an exceptionally strong demand sentiment in India.Second,Industrial fabrication lost 1%last year which slightly reduced its market share from 59%to 56%.Following three consecutive years of increases,silver demand from the solar industry took a breather in 2018.That might sound counter intuitively considering the continued commitments from the various governments to increase solar as a part of the