中国分布式能源发展：回顾及展望.pdf

WORKING PAPER|September 2020|1WORKING PAPERWorking Papers contain preliminary research,analysis,findings,and recommendations.They are circulated to stimulate timely discussion and critical feedback and to influence ongoing debate on emerging issues.Most working papers are eventually published in another form and their content may be revised.Suggested Citation:Martinot,Eric,Miao Hong,Hu Runqing,Zhang Mofan,and Yuan Min.2020.“Distributed Energy in China:Review and Perspective 20202025.”Working Paper.World Resources Institute,Beijing.Available online at https:/ MARTINOT,MIAO HONG,HU RUNQING,ZHANG MOFAN,YUAN MINDISTRIBUTED ENERGY IN CHINA:REVIEW AND PERSPECTIVE 20202025EXECUTIVE SUMMARYHighlights Distributed energy is one of the cornerstones of Chinas energy transition.Yet distributed energy is still drastically underdeveloped relative to its potential in China.In China,over the past 15 years,policies for distrib-uted energy have greatly evolved and expanded.Dur-ing the period 202025,current policy supports will be phased out,and distributed energy will gravitate toward market-oriented and competitive models.New policies will indirectly support distributed energy,remove barriers,and provide a favorable environment for distributed energy to continue to grow.A variety of market drivers have emerged in recent years,beyond cost-subsidy policies.Very specific dis-tributed energy“use cases”are benefiting from these market drivers.Use cases for distributed energy will continue to grow for integrated microgrids,energy storage,electric vehicle charging infrastructure,and larger volumes of small-scale projects for industrial and commercial end users.In supporting the acceleration and scale-up of distrib-uted energy,a variety of recommended actions are available to government agencies,industry,project developers and financiers,foundations and other pub-lic funders,and research institutions.CONTENTSExecutive Summary.1Introduction.3Policy History and Outlook.7Market Drivers and Use CasesHistory and Outlook.8Market BarriersHistory and Outlook.9Distributed EnergyHistory and Outlook.11Economics of Distributed versus Centralized Energy SolutionsHistory and Outlook.13Recommendations.14ConclusionChina Distributed Energy Outlook.16Endnotes.18References.182|Context Distributed energy(DE)differs from centralized energy in several respects.It has the advantages of high energy efficiency because it utilizes local renewable resources,and it is located closer to end users,thus avoiding high transmission costs.It is an effective supplement to centralized energy systems.Distributed energy is one of the essential characteristics of Chinas energy transition.Yet,there are still many potential scenarios for DE development in China.Despite large and growing markets for some distributed energy applications,only a small fraction of the existing economic potential has been realized.Existing policies,technology applications,business models,financing sources,and stakeholder involvement have scarcely begun to address the true potential or capture the true long-term value of distributed energy.About This Working Paper This paper surveys the future of distributed energy in China for the coming period 202025,based on the past and current market and policy situation,potential,challenges,and evolving and emerging use cases(i.e.,technology applications and business models)for distributed energy.The study provides investors,strategy advisers,policymakers,and foundations with a concise background and perspective relevant to decisions and strategies for promoting distributed energy in China in the coming years.Approach and Objectives of the Paper Use cases for distributed energy are an effective way to portray its real potential in China to contribute to the countrys climate and clean energy goals.A use case is a particular technology application and configuration that is profitable within the context of a specific business model and enabling environment(including policies and institutional arrangements).Questions we are trying to answer are,Where do we stand with regard to achieving long-term distributed energy potential in China,considering which use cases have already demonstrated scale-up potential and which others remain untested and unproven but show promise?How can we foster greater scale-up of both proven and potential use cases?Key Findings China will develop many new innovations in clean energy,and,among them,distributed energy is expected to take center stage in the coming decade.Existing forms of policy support are ending,while new market-based policies are emerging that will indirectly support distributed energy,remove barriers,and pro-vide a favorable environment for distributed energy to continue to grow.In parallel with policy evolution,there is an emerging new generation of use cases for distributed energy in China.Most of the barriers discussed in this paper will re-main during the period 202025.Costs will continue to decline over the next five years.To support acceleration and scale-up of distributed energy,a variety of recommended actions are avail-able to government agencies,industry,project devel-opers and financiers,foundations and other public funders,and research institutions.RecommendationsBased on this analysis,along with the collective knowledge and work of the authors,we make the following recommendations to promote and accelerate the growth of distributed energy in China.For government agencies:Develop market-based mechanisms and rules that allow local energy trading and chart a pathway to enable distributed energy to participants in future wholesale markets and direct sales to other customers,including both generation and demand-response.Promote a simplified grid-connection process for distributed photovoltaic systems to all distributed renewable energy projects.Consider developing local markets for distributed heating and cooling,possibly including local feed-in tariffs or other support policies for renewable energy-based heating.Explore more distributed solar applications that com-bine with new types of infrastructure,and make such applications practical for commercial projects such as parking structures,roads and highways,green spaces,fencing,and ground-level building peripheries.DISTRIBUTED ENERGY IN CHINA:REVIEW AND PERSPECTIVE 20202025WORKING PAPER|September 2020|3 Establish a national guarantee fund for innovative dis-tributed energy projects that pilot new business models and technology configurations,with detailed investiga-tion and public dissemination of results and metrics.For industry,project developers,and financiers:Innovate new business and finance models so results can be learned and shared within the industry.Provide higher-quality supervision for new projects.Identify and market third-party energy service company(ESCO)services to new types of potential customers.Innovate standardized and accepted forms of project finance,with project assets used as collateral.Develop new forms of third-party risk-sharing.For foundations and other public funders:Fund the development and piloting of new business and finance models that are not yet widely adopted but show great potential for scale-up.Fund local market assessment studies that allow a locality to measure market maturation for distributed energy at the local level,including business outlooks and potential sites and development opportunities.Provide capacity building for enterprises and financiers to understand opportunities,risks,and business models,and for financiers to develop new lending platforms and programs for distributed energy.Identify,consult with,educate,and facilitate the activities of a wide range of relevant stakeholders.Develop unique and effective tools for decision-making and dissemination of experience,such that pilot projects and models are more likely to be replicated.Create coalitions of organizations including industry,professional associations,research institutes,and planners,who agree to work together to implement the activities listed above.For research institutions:Develop ways to measure progress and track scale-up and acceleration.Various local-or national-level indicators beyond simple capacity(megawatts MW)are possible and could be used to explicitly measure and define outcomes for distributed energy.They include strategic-level indicators,policy indicators,and proof-of-concept and pilot project metrics of success and viability.Develop a variety of research agendas that are needed for distributed energy at the present time.INTRODUCTIONDistributed energy(DE)is one of the cornerstones of Chinas energy transition.Yet distributed energy is still drastically underdeveloped relative to its potential in China.Despite large and growing markets for some distributed energy applications,only a small fraction of the existing economic potential has been realized,and existing policies,technology applications,business models,financing sources,and stakeholder involvement have barely begun to address the true potential and capture the long-term value of distributed energy.Distributed energy differs from centralized energy in several respects.It has the advantages of high energy efficiency,safety and reliability,low overall cost,low loss,and flexible operation.It is an effective supplement to centralized energy systems(IEA 2017).Distributed energy in China1 can be categorized in terms of two carbon emission types:natural gas-fired combined cooling,heating,and power(CCHP),which is nonrenewable and produces carbon emissions,and distributed renewable energy technologies such as solar,wind,biomass,hydro energy,and geothermal energy,which can be carbon-neutral.Renewables can fuel distributed energy development and application,supplying power,heat,synthetic gas,motive power,and other end-use energy needs.This working paper focuses only on distributed renewable energy.Although distributed energy does not have an agreed-upon global standard definition,the characteristics of distributed energy are uniformly understood across countries.The main characteristics of DE encompass three aspects.First,the scale of distributed power generation projects is small,usually less than one megawatt(MW).Second,the distributed power generation source is connected to the distribution network(low-voltage grid or local heating network),close to the end-use energy load(demand),and the power generated is mainly or partly for 4|local consumption.Third,a distributed energy project can include and integrate a range of supply-and demand-side technologies such as energy storage,energy management and demand response,and smart controlsnot just power generation and heating supply-side technologies.Distributed energy,as a local energy supply system,avoids the negative impacts of long-distance energy transmission(such as line loss and environmental impacts from power lines).Distributed energy offers users a reliable,economical,and stable power supply,and can meet multipurpose energy demands.Historically,distributed solar photovoltaic(PV)systems and small hydropower generation units have solved the problem of energy supply in remote and unelectrified rural areas.At present,the most mature technology application is PV power generation.In the true sense of multi-energy complementarity,there are still very few applications that can provide a range of energy products(i.e.,electricity,cooling,heating,steam,etc.)and integrated and optimized energy services.Therefore,the main policy and application focus of this paper is on the distributed application of solar PV.China has been the worlds largest PV market since 2013.New installed PV capacity in China keeps increasing(Figure 1)in response to the rapid fall in PV model prices and capital expenditure in terms of PV project capacity(Figure 2),as well as due to incentive policies in the form of feed-in tariffs(FITs)and subsidies(Table 1).Before 2016,large-scale PV power stations dominated the PV market in China.Distributed PV energy began to develop very quickly in 2016,driven by incentive subsidy policy,rapidly falling costs,and simplified management procedures.The subsidy for distributed PV remained the same as in 2013,while the FIT for large-scale PV projects was reduced by between 0.15 and 0.25 RMB/kilowatt hours(kWh).The distributed investment in China reached a peak in 2017,with over US$45 billion in annual investment flowing to mostly industrial and commercial megawatt-scale solar PV applications.That year,19.4 gigawatts(GW)of Figure 1|Chinas Annual Installed Solar Photovoltaic Capacity,20132019(Gigawatts)Source:Energy Resources Institute,NDRC,with data from NEA 2020.Large-scaleDistributed2013201620152019201820172014060504030201011.010.60.42.010.68.613.71.44.234.519.452.921.044.312.230.130.333.523.317.915.1DISTRIBUTED ENERGY IN CHINA:REVIEW AND PERSPECTIVE 20202025WORKING PAPER|September 2020|5Figure 2|Photovoltaic Model and Photovoltaic Power Generation Cost,20072020(RMB/Wp)Note:Wp=Watt peak;CapEx=Capital expenditure.Source:Energy Resources Institute,NDRC 2020.Note:FIT=Feed-in tariff;PV=Photovoltaic.Source:Energy Resources Institute,NDRC 2020.Types Year2013201520162017201820192020Before May 31After June 1FIT for large-scale PVI Zone0.900.800.650.550.50.400.35II Zone0.950.880.750.650.60.450.40III Zone1.000.980.850.750.70.550.49Subsidy for distributed PVIndustrial and commercial(wholesale)0.420.420.42Same as large-scale PVIndustrial and commercial (self-consumption and sale to grid)0.370.320.100.05Household 0.180.08Table 1|Chinas Feed-in Tariff and Subsidy for Photovoltaic Projects,20132020(RMB/kWh,including tax)CapEx(RMB/Wp)PV Model(RMB/Wp)0706050403020102007200820092016201520192020201820172014201320122011201060.050.035.025.017.012.09.08.54.77.99.719.030.036.07.56.75.04.23.81.51.82.22.73.13.44.06.08.06|distributed solar PV capacity was added,along with more modest amounts of distributed wind power,local heating from solar and biomass,and other distributed energy investment(NEA 2018c).This US$45 billion in 2017 was a fourfold increase from the 2016 investment level of about US$10 billion.The market shifted in 2018 in response to major adjustments in policy support,but added capacity of distributed PV in 2018 still reached 21.0 GW,higher than the 19.4 GW added in 2017.By the end of 2018,distributed solar PV in China amounted to 50.6 GW,representing about 30 percent of total solar PV capacity of all forms(NEA 2019b).In addition,by the end of 2018,about 400 MW of distributed(on-site)wind power existed,with plans for an additional 9 GW of distributed wind power in 10 provinces by 2020.Distributed natural gas projects accounted for about 5 to 10 GW of power generation and/or cogeneration.Policy adjustments in June 2018 initially created much market uncertainty.FITs and subsidies were greatly reduced and capacity caps and budget controls became stricternot only for centralized(utility-scale)solar PV as before but also for distributed PV projects,which were ca