20230102-海通国际-中国银行行业：2023年银行业展望.pdf

Table_yemei1 观点聚焦 Investment Focus Table_yejiao1 本研究报告由海通国际分销，海通国际是由海通国际研究有限公司，海通证券印度私人有限公司，海通国际株式会社和海通国际证券集团其他各成员单位的证券研究团队所组成的全球品牌，海通国际证券集团各成员分别在其许可的司法管辖区内从事证券活动。关于海通国际的分析师证明，重要披露声明和免责声明，请参阅附录。(Please see appendix for English translation of the disclaimer)研究报告 Research Report 2 Jan 2023 中国银行行业中国银行行业 China Banks 2023 年银行业展望 Banking Industry 2023 Outlook Table_Info 股票名称 评级 股票名称 评级 工商银行 Outperform 上海银行 Outperform 建设银行 Outperform 杭州银行 Outperform 农业银行 Outperform 浙商银行 Outperform 招商银行 Outperform 沪农商行 Outperform 中国银行 Outperform 成都银行 Outperform 邮储银行 Outperform 苏州银行 Outperform 兴业银行 Outperform 长沙银行 Outperform 交通银行 Outperform 常熟银行 Outperform 平安银行 Outperform 重庆银行 Outperform 中信银行 Outperform 重庆银行 Outperform 宁波银行 Outperform 青岛银行 Outperform 浦发银行 Outperform 青农商行 Outperform 光大银行 Outperform 西安银行 Outperform 南京银行 Outperform 厦门银行 Outperform 江苏银行 Outperform 张家港行 Outperform 北京银行 Outperform 无锡银行 Outperform 资料来源：Factset,HTI Related Reports 中央经济工作会议解读（Review of the Central Economic Work Conference）(18 Dec 2022)11 月社融数据点评：M2 增速创年内新高，企业中长期贷款延续强势（M2 Growth Hits New High within the Year,Corp Mid to Long-term Loans Robust Growth Continued）(13 Dec 2022)后疫情时代的银行股估值（Valuation of Bank Stocks in the Post-Epidemic Era）(12 Dec 2022)(Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary)投资建议投资建议 上半年由于宏观经济的不确定性，业绩期银行股上涨概率大，非业绩期较难把握，我们建议关注杭州银行、苏州银行等业绩优异、确定性高的公司。下半年宏观预期修复后，预计之前下跌幅度较大的股份制银行会有明显修复，建议关注平安银行，以及业绩较好的城商行。理由理由 预计预计 1 月份银行股将为上涨趋势。月份银行股将为上涨趋势。过去十年数据显示银行股在 1 月的胜率为 75%。原因首先是年末的估值切换，各种估值方法中 PB估值切换带来上涨的确定性最高，利好银行股。其次买入银行股的资金来源主要为保险资金和个人资金，两者的资金到位情况均有明显季节性，1 月份保险业的“开门红”及居民的年终奖发放利好银行股。此外，不同于市场的悲观预期，疫情防控政策的大幅变化对银行四季度业绩影响较小。根据我们的了解和判断，四季度银行业绩表现正常，部分小银行利润增速高于三季度，银行年报业绩表现预计超预期，1 月份部分商业银行发布业绩快报将利好银行股。同时，疫情防控政策放开后，根据我们的调研，很多城市的第一轮疫情冲击预计在 1 月达峰，社会生活正逐渐恢复，利好银行股。预计春节到两会期间银行股小幅跑输。预计春节到两会期间银行股小幅跑输。历史上银行股 2 月胜率不足20%。原因首先是春节到两会期间“春季躁动”，市场偏好弹性较高的行业，银行股为 A 股行业中弹性最低的行业。同时 1 月疫情冲击达峰后，若出行/消费/经济数据恢复没有兑现，疫后复苏的乐观预期可能会受到影响。预计预计 3 月末到月末到 4 月银行股将为上涨趋势。月银行股将为上涨趋势。两会结束至 4 月底这段时间为商业银行年报和一季报发布的财报季，我们预计银行业绩表现稳中向好。历史数据显示两会过后的 4 月份银行股通常跑赢大市。4 月底月底关注关注政治局会议定调。政治局会议定调。现在的经济思路是疫情防控政策放开后释放内需，我们预计 4 月份政治局会议可能会做出微调，大概率会有小幅度放松。但由于后续欧美经济衰退大概率导致的外需疲软，偏利好定调的不确定性较高。二季度末二季度末再次再次关注疫情情况。关注疫情情况。第一轮疫情冲击感染后形成的免疫力预计在半年后消退，二季度末可能会有第二轮疫情冲击，虽然严重程度大概率小于第一轮，但可能改变市场预期。Table_Author 林加力林加力 Jiali Lin 557085100115Jan-22Apr-22Jul-22Sep-22Dec-22HAI China BanksMSCI China 2 Jan 2023 2 Table_header1 中国银行行业中国银行行业 7 月底关注月底关注政治局政治局会议定调。会议定调。第一种情况是疫情政策调整能有效拉动内需，7 月底效果充分体现、经济开始复苏，再加之银行股不良率的连续下降和业绩的持续向好，银行股预计上涨。第二种情况是疫情政策调整后效果不佳，预计 7 月底政治局会议将出台更强力的政策。8 月到月到 12 月建议关注经济月建议关注经济进入进入复苏期复苏期的时点的时点。我们预计下半年会出现宏观预期修复驱动交易，建议关注宏观经济向上拐点的出现可能。叠加银行业不良率连续三年的下降，以及地产风险大概率变得较为明朗，银行业可能从这个时点开启一轮大行情。汇率、政策态度、地产和城投的影响汇率、政策态度、地产和城投的影响。第一，人民币已经步入相对美元升值通道，有利于银行股走强。美国的信贷增速进一步下降，人民币汇率相对美元进一步走强。汇率与银行股为正相关的基本同步指标，原因一是因为均为顺周期，二是因为境外投资人会根据汇率来交易银行股。第二，关注两会后的银行行业政策态度，若后续定调出现正面变化，银行股股价预计会有较大的正面反应。第三，地产数据/风险的企稳也会带来行情，但时间点不好预计。地产风险现在相对比较显性，2022 年底中央经济工作会议部署中明确要严防地产领域风险，因此极端风险发生的可能性很低，小风险对银行股股价几乎没有扰动。如果之后地产出现明显的数据企稳或风险化解，银行股应该会有较大正面反应，政策上的放松如限购限贷等对股价的影响将变小。第四，城投的公开债务是可能的风险点。与地产问题类似，若城投出风险对银行股可能会有情绪和估值上的打击，对银行股业绩影响不大。我们认为城投公开债务出现违约的可能性很低，经济上行期发生的概率更大。风险提示。风险提示。企业偿债能力下降，资产质量大幅恶化；金融监管政策出现重大变化。eV8YaUOAnNpMaQaO9PtRnNpNsRkPnNrQiNmMoR7NmOtRNZtPsMvPqMtM 2 Jan 2023 3 Table_header2 中国银行行业中国银行行业 APPENDIX 1 Summary Investment advice:H1 macroeconomic uncertainty is high.The probability of bank stocks rising in the earnings period is high,and it is more difficult to predict in the non-earnings period.We suggest focusing on companies with high certainty of excellent performance such as Bank of Hangzhou and Bank of Suzhou.In the second half of the year,after the macro-expected repair,it is expected that the previous decline in the shareholding banks will be significantly repaired,we recommend focusing on Ping An Bank,as well as city commercial banks with better performance.Reasons:Bank stocks are expected to a rise trend in January.Bank stocks are expected to underperform the market slightly during the Spring Festival to the two sessions.Bank stocks are expected to a rise trend from late March to April.Focus on the tone of the Political Bureau meeting at the end of April.Focus on the epidemic situation again at the end of the second quarter.Focus on the tone of the Political Bureau meeting at the end of July.August to December is recommended to focus on the point when the economy enters the recovery period.The impact of exchange rates,policy attitudes,real estate,and local government investment vehicles.Risks:Enterprises deteriorating solvency,asset quality worse off significantly;major regulatory policy adverse changes 4 Table_APPENDIX Table_disclaimer 附录附录APPENDIX 重要信息披露重要信息披露 本研究报告由海通国际分销，海通国际是由海通国际研究有限公司(HTIRL)，Haitong Securities India Private Limited(HSIPL)，Haitong International Japan K.K.(HTIJKK)和海通国际证券有限公司(HTISCL)的证券研究团队所组成的全球品牌，海通国际证券集团(HTISG)各成员分别在其许可的司法管辖区内从事证券活动。IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES This research report is distributed by Haitong International,a global brand name for the equity research teams of Haitong International Research Limited(“HTIRL”),Haitong Securities India Private Limited(“HSIPL”),Haitong International Japan K.K.(“HTIJKK”),Haitong International Securities Company Limited(“HTISCL”),and any other members within the Haitong International Securities Group of Companies(“HTISG”),each authorized to engage in securities activities in its respective jurisdiction.HTIRL分析师认证分析师认证Analyst Certification:我，林加力，在此保证（i）本研究报告中的意见准确反映了我们对本研究中提及的任何或所有目标公司或上市公司的个人观点，并且（ii）我的报酬中没有任何部分与本研究报告中表达的具体建议或观点直接或间接相关；及就此报告中所讨论目标公司的证券，我们（包括我们的家属）在其中均不持有任何财务利益。I,Jiali Lin,certify that(i)the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about any or all of the subject companies or issuers referred to in this research and(ii)no part of my compensation was,is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report;and that I(including members of my household)have no financial interest in the security or securities of the subject companies discussed.利益冲突披露利益冲突披露Conflict of Interest Disclosures 海通国际及其某些关联公司可从事投资银行业务和/或对本研究中的特定股票或公司进行做市或持有自营头寸。就本研究报告而言，以下是有关该等关系的披露事项（以下披露不能保证及时无遗漏，如需了解及时全面信息，请发邮件至ERD-D）HTI and some of its affiliates may engage in investment banking and/or serve as a market maker or hold proprietary trading positions of certain stocks or companies in this research report.As far as this research report is concerned,the following are the disclosure matters related to such relationship(As the following disclosure does not ensure timeliness and completeness,please send an email to ERD-D if timely and comprehensive information is needed).海通证券股份有限公司和/或其子公司（统称“海通”）在过去12个月内参与了600015.CH,600036.CH,600919.CH,601166.CH,601229.CH,601328.CH,601398.CH,601658.CH,601818.CH,601838.CH,601939.CH,601988.CH,601998.CH,0939.HK,0998.HK,1398.HK,1658.HK,3328.HK,3698.HK,3968.HK,3988.HK,6818.HK and 600188.CH的投资银行项目。投资银行项目包括：1、海通担任上市前辅导机构、保荐人或主承销商的首次公开发行项目；2、海通作为保荐人、主承销商或财务顾问的股权或债务再融资项目；3、海通作为主经纪商的新三板上市、目标配售和并购项目。Haitong Securities Co.,Ltd.and/or its subsidiaries(collectively,the Haitong)have a role in investment banking projects of 600015.CH,600036.CH,600919.CH,601166.CH,601229.CH,601328.CH,601398.CH,601658.CH,601818.CH,601838.CH,601939.CH,601988.CH,601998.CH,0939.HK,0998.HK,1398.HK,1658.HK,3328.HK,3698.HK,3968.HK,3988.HK,6818.HK and 600188.CH within the past 12 months.The investment banking projects include 1.IPO projects in which Haitong acted as pre-listing tutor,sponsor,or lead-underwriter;2.equity or debt refinancing projects of 600015.CH,600036.CH,600919.CH,601166.CH,601229.CH,601328.CH,601398.CH,601658.CH,601818.CH,601838.CH,601939.CH,601988.CH,601998.CH,0939.HK,0998.HK,1398.HK,1658.HK,3328.HK,3698.HK,3968.HK,3988.HK,6818.HK and 600188.CH for which Haitong acted as sponsor,lead-underwriter or financial advisor;3.listing by introduction in the new three board,target placement,M&A projects in which Haitong acted as lead-brokerage firm.作为回报，海通拥有1216.HK 及 3698.HK一类普通股证券的1%或以上。The Haitong beneficially owns 1%or more of a class of common equity securities of 1216.HK and 3698.HK.600000.CH,600015.CH,600036.CH,600919.CH,601166.CH,601229.CH,601328.CH,601398.CH,601658.CH,601818.CH,601838.CH,601939.CH,601988.CH,601998.CH,0939.HK,0998.HK,1398.HK,1658.HK,3328.HK,3698.HK,3968.HK,3988.HK,6818.HK 及 600188.CH目前或过去12个月内是海通的投资银行业务客户。600000.CH,600015.CH,600036.CH,600919.CH,601166.CH,601229.CH,601328.CH,601398.CH,601658.CH,601818.CH,601838.CH,601939.CH,601988.CH,601998.CH,0939.HK,0998.HK,1398.HK,1658.HK,3328.HK,3698.HK,3968.HK,3988.HK,6818.HK and 600188.CH are/were an investment bank clients of Haitong currently or within the past 12 months.000001.CH,002142.CH,002948.CH,600000.CH,600015.CH,600036.CH,600919.CH,600926.CH,601009.CH,上海农村商业银行股份有限公司,601128.CH,601166.CH,601169.CH,601229.CH,601288.CH,601328.CH,601398.CH,601577.CH,601658.CH,601818.CH,601838.CH,601939.CH,601988.CH,601998.CH,0011.HK,0023.HK,0939.HK,0998.HK,1216.HK,1288.HK,1398.HK,1658.HK,3328.HK,3698.HK,3866.HK,3968.HK,3988.HK,6190.HK,6818.HK 及 601187.CH目前或过去12个月内是海通的客户。海通向客户提供非投资银行业务的证券相关业务服务。000001.CH,002142.CH,002948.CH,600000.CH,600015.CH,600036.CH,600919.CH,600926.CH,601009.CH,上海农村商业银行股份有限公司,601128.CH,601166.CH,601169.CH,601229.CH,601288.CH,601328.CH,601398.CH,601577.CH,601658.CH,601818.CH,601838.CH,601939.CH,601988.CH,601998.CH,0011.HK,0023.HK,0939.HK,0998.HK,1216.HK,1288.HK,1398.HK,1658.HK,3328.HK,3698.HK,3866.HK,3968.HK,3988.HK,6190.HK,6818.HK and 601187.CH are/were a client of Haitong currently or within the past 12 months.The client has been provided for non-investment-banking securities-related services.601398.CH 及 1398.HK目前或过去12个月内是海通的客户。海通向客户提供非证券业务服务。601398.CH and 1398.HK are/were a client of Haitong currently or within the past 12 months.The client has been provided for non-securities services.海通在过去12个月中获得对600015.CH,600036.CH,601166.CH,601328.CH,601658.CH,601818.CH,601939.CH,601988.CH,601998.CH,0939.HK,0998.HK,1658.HK,3328.HK,3968.HK,3988.HK,6818.HK 及 600188.CH提供投资银行服务的报酬。5 Haitong received in the past 12 months compensation for investment banking services provided to 600015.CH,600036.CH,601166.CH,601328.CH,601658.CH,601818.CH,601939.CH,601988.CH,601998.CH,0939.HK,0998.HK,1658.HK,3328.HK,3968.HK,3988.HK,6818.HK and 600188.CH.海通预计将（或者有意向）在未来三个月内从600000.CH,600036.CH,600919.CH,601166.CH,601229.CH,601328.CH,601398.CH,601658.CH,601818.CH,601998.CH,0023.HK,0998.HK,1398.HK,1658.HK,3328.HK,3968.HK,6818.HK 及 600188.CH获得投资银行服务报酬。Haitong expects to receive,or intends to seek,compensation for investment banking services in the next three months from 600000.CH,600036.CH,600919.CH,601166.CH,601229.CH,601328.CH,601398.CH,601658.CH,601818.CH,601998.CH,0023.HK,0998.HK,1398.HK,1658.HK,3328.HK,3968.HK,6818.HK and 600188.CH.海通在过去的12个月中从前海开源资产平安银行前海开源资产华鑫1号新三板专项资产管理计划,长安财富资产宁波银行长安资产景林海通新三板投资专项资产管理计划,长安财富资产宁波银行长安资产景林新三板2期投资专项资产管理计划,大越期货宁波银行大越期货1号资产管理计划,国开泰富基金宁波银行国开泰富海汇定增1号资产管理计划,海通期货宁波银行海通期货海新1号集合资产管理计划,上海富诚海富通资产宁波银行富诚海富通福瑞通达1号专项资产管理计划,600015.CH,600036.CH,600926.CH,601009.CH,601166.CH,601229.CH,601328.CH,601398.CH,601818.CH,601939.CH,601998.CH,0939.HK,0998.HK,1398.HK,3328.HK,3698.HK,3968.HK 及 6818.HK获得除投资银行服务以外之产品或服务的报酬。Haitong has received compensation in the past 12 months for products or services other than investment banking from 前海开源资产平安银行前海开源资产华鑫1号新三板专项资产管理计划,长安财富资产宁波银行长安资产景林海通新三板投资专项资产管理计划,长安财富资产宁波银行长安资产景林新三板2期投资专项资产管理计划,大越期货宁波银行大越期货1号资产管理计划,国开泰富基金宁波银行国开泰富海汇定增1号资产管理计划,海通期货宁波银行海通期货海新1号集合资产管理计划,上海富诚海富通资产宁波银行富诚海富通福瑞通达1号专项资产管理计划,600015.CH,600036.CH,600926.CH,601009.CH,601166.CH,601229.CH,601328.CH,601398.CH,601818.CH,601939.CH,601998.CH,0939.HK,0998.HK,1398.HK,3328.HK,3698.HK,3968.HK and 6818.HK.海通担任600036.CH,601288.CH,601398.CH,601658.CH,601939.CH,601988.CH,0005.HK,0011.HK,0939.HK,1288.HK,1398.HK,1658.HK,3968.HK 及 3988.HK有关证券的做市商或流通量提供者。Haitong acts as a market maker or liquidity provider in the securities of 600036.CH,601288.CH,601398.CH,601658.CH,601939.CH,601988.CH,0005.HK,0011.HK,0939.HK,1288.HK,1398.HK,1658.HK,3968.HK and 3988.HK.海通国际证券集团有限公司（“海通国际”）有雇员或与关联人士担任6138.HK的职员。Haitong International Securities Group Ltd.(Haitong International)having an individual employed by or associated with Haitong International serving as an officer of 6138.HK.评级定义评级定义（从（从2020年年7月月1日开始执行）日开始执行）：海通国际（以下简称“HTI”）采用相对评级系统来为投资者推荐我们覆盖的公司：优于大市、中性或弱于大市。投资者应仔细阅读HTI的评级定义。并且HTI发布分析师观点的完整信息，投资者应仔细阅读全文而非仅看评级。在任何情况下，分析师的评级和研究都不能作为投资建议。投资者的买卖股票的决策应基于各自情况（比如投资者的现有持仓）以及其他因素。分析师股票评级分析师股票评级 优于大市优于大市，未来12-18个月内预期相对基准指数涨幅在10%以上，基准定义如下 中性中性，未来12-18个月内预期相对基准指数变化不大，基准定义如下。根据FINRA/NYSE的评级分布规则，我们会将中性评级划入持有这一类别。弱于大市弱于大市，未来12-18个月内预期相对基准指数跌幅在10%以上，基准定义如下 各地股票基准指数：日本 TOPIX,韩国 KOSPI,台湾 TAIEX,印度 Nifty100,美国 SP500;其他所有中国概念股 MSCI China.Ratings Definitions(from 1 Jul 2020):Haitong International uses a relative rating system using Outperform,Neutral,or Underperform for recommending the stocks we cover to investors.Investors should carefully read the definitions of all ratings used in Haitong International Research.In addition,since Haitong International Research contains more complete information concerning the analysts views,investors should carefully read Haitong International Research,in its entirety,and not infer the contents from the rating alone.In any case,ratings(or research)should not be used or relied upon as investment advice.An investors decision to buy or sell a stock should depend on individual circumstances(such as the investors existing holdings)and other considerations.评级分布评级分布Rating Distribution 6 Analyst Stock Ratings Outperform:The stocks total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to exceed the return of its relevant broad market benchmark,as indicated below.Neutral:The stocks total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to be in line with the return of its relevant broad market benchmark,as indicated below.For purposes only of FINRA/NYSE ratings distribution rules,our Neutral rating falls into a hold rating category.Underperform:The stocks total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to be below the return of its relevant broad market benchmark,as indicated below.Benchmarks for each stocks listed region are as follows:Japan TOPIX,Korea KOSPI,Taiwan TAIEX,India Nifty100,US SP500;for all other China-concept stocks MSCI China.截至截至2022年年9月月30日海通国际股票研究评级分布日海通国际股票研究评级分布 优于大市优于大市 中性中性 弱于大市弱于大市 (持有)海通国际股票研究覆盖率 89.4%9.2%1.4%投资银行客户*5.5%6.8%4.5%*在每个评级类别里投资银行客户所占的百分比。上述分布中的买入，中性和卖出分别对应我们当前优于大市，中性和落后大市评级。只有根据FINRA/NYSE的评级分布规则，我们才将中性评级划入持有这一类别。请注意在上表中不包含非评级的股票。此前的评级系统定义（直至此前的评级系统定义（直至2020年年6月月30日）：日）：买入，未来12-18个月内预期相对基准指数涨幅在10%以上，基准定义如下 中性，未来12-18个月内预期相对基准指数变化不大，基准定义如下。根据FINRA/NYSE的评级分布规则，我们会将中性评级划入持有这一类别。卖出，未来12-18个月内预期相对基准指数跌幅在10%以上，基准定义如下 各地股票基准指数：日本 TOPIX,韩国 KOSPI,台湾 TAIEX,印度 Nifty100;其他所有中国概念股 MSCI China.Haitong International Equity Research Ratings Distribution,as of Sep 30,2022 Outperform Neutral Underperform (hold)HTI Equity Research Coverage 89.4%9.2%1.4%IB clients*5.5%6.8%4.5%*Percentage of investment banking clients in each rating category.BUY,Neutral,and SELL in the above distribution correspond to our current ratings of Outperform,Neutral,and Underperform.For purposes only of FINRA/NYSE ratin