农业环境科学学报JournalofAgro⁃EnvironmentScience2023，42（8）:1882-18922023年8月王树芬，高冠龙，李伟，等.2000—2020年山西省农业碳排放时空特征及趋势预测[J].农业环境科学学报,2023,42（8）：1882-1892.WANGSF,GAOGL,LIW,etal.CarbonemissionsfromagriculturalandanimalhusbandryinShanxiProvince：temporalandregionalaspects,andtrendforecast[J].JournalofAgro-EnvironmentScience,2023,42（8）：1882-1892.2000—2020年山西省农业碳排放时空特征及趋势预测王树芬1，高冠龙1，2，3，4*，李伟1，刘思敏5（1.山西大学环境与资源学院，太原030006；2.中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院，兰州730000；3.山西省黄河实验室，太原030006；4.甘肃省祁连山水源涵养林研究院，甘肃张掖734000；5.国家林业和草原局经济发展研究中心，北京100714）CarbonemissionsfromagriculturalandanimalhusbandryinShanxiProvince：temporalandregionalaspects,andtrendforecastWANGShufen1,GAOGuanlong1,2,3,4*,LIWei1,LIUSimin5（1.CollegeofEnvironmentandResource,ShanxiUniversity,Taiyuan030006,China;2.NorthwestInstituteofEco-EnvironmentandResources,ChineseAcademyofSciences,Lanzhou730000,China;3.ShanxiLaboratoryforYellowRiver,Taiyuan030006,China;4.AcademyofWaterResourcesConservationForestsintheQilianMountainsofGansuProvince,Zhangye734000,China;5.ChinaNationalForestry-GrasslandEconomicsandDevelopmentResearchCenter,Beijing100714,China）Abstract：InShanxiProvince,toinvestigatethetemporalandspatialcharacteristicsofagriculturalcarbonemissionsandtheirfuturetrends,agriculturalcarbonemissionswereestimatedusingtheemissionfactormethodbasedon10carbonsourcesofplantingandanimalhusbandryduring2000—2020,andagriculturalcarbonemissionsduring2021—2030werepredictedusingtheSTIRPATmodel.From2000to2020,agriculturalcarbonemissionsinShanxiProvincetendedtoriseslowly,followedbyafluctuatingdecline.Agricultureandanimalhusbandrycarbonemissionintensityexhibitedafluctuatingtrendofdecline,withanaverageannualdeclineof4.1%.Theplantingandanimalhusbandrycontributionrateswere42.2%and57.8%,respectively.Fertilizerusageisthelargestsourceofplantingcarbon收稿日期：2022-11-22录用日期：2023-03...
