收稿日期院圆园23原3原1第一作者简介院王营渊1996-冤袁女袁辽宁省朝阳市人袁沈阳农业大学袁硕士生袁助理工程师.王营袁李永生袁赵佳莹袁马舒扬袁班晋袁宋成玉袁王昊渊黑龙江省气候中心袁黑龙江哈尔滨150036冤2022-2023年黑龙江省1月延伸期强降温过程预报检验摘要院利用黑龙江省83个气象观测站2022年和2023年1月的逐日温度资料袁以单站日平均温度24h内降温幅度>8益为标准袁对强降温事件进行统计袁并对CFSv2延伸期预报进行检验遥结果表明院两年共发生6次强降温过程袁发布延伸期强降温过程12次袁预报准确率为33%袁空报过程10次袁漏报4次袁2023年预报准确率高于2022年遥对比不同预报时效的结果袁发现延伸期预报效果与起报时间并没有显著联系遥CFSv2模式对大范围强降温过程的预报有一定技巧袁超前10d预报的旬气温距平也具有参考价值袁与实况相比袁延伸期强降温过程预报的时段和强度略有偏差袁但是预报的变化趋势基本一致袁可以为黑龙江省1月强降温预报提供参考遥关键词院延伸期曰强降温曰模式检验中图分类号院P456.7文献标识码院AForecastandTestofStrongCoolingProcessDuringJanuaryExtensionPeriodinHeilongjiangProvincefrom2022to2023WANGYing,LIYong-sheng,ZHAOJia-ying,MAShu-yang,BANJin,SONGCheng-yu,WANGHao(ClimateCenterofHeilongjiangProvince,HeilongjiangHarbin150036)Abstract:Basedonthedailytemperaturedataof83meteorologicalobservationstationsinHeilongjiangProvinceinJanuary2022and2023,basedonthestandardthatdailyaveragetemperatureofasinglestationdropsbymorethan8益within24hours,statisticalanalysisisconductedonstrongcoolingeventsandcomparedwiththeCFSv2extendedperiodforecast.Theresultsshowthatthereare6strongcoolingprocessesinthetwoyears,12strongcoolingprocessesintheextendedperiodarereleased,andtheforecastaccuracyis33%.Theforecastaccuracyof2023ishigherthanthatof2022.Bycomparingtheresultsofdifferentforecastingefficiency,itisfoundthatthereisnosignificantrelationshipbetweenforecastingeffectivenessandstarttimeofforecasting.TheCFSv2modelhascertainskillsforthepredictionoflarge-scalestrongcoolingprocess,andtheten-daytemperatureanomalypre鄄dictedby10daysinadvancealsohasreferencevalue.Comparedwiththeactualsituation,thepredictionperiodandintensityoftheextendedperiodstr...
