文章编号：1673-887X(2023)06-0132-04日光温室最低气温预报技术研究魏月娥1，2，杜宏娟1，2（1.中国气象局旱区特色农业气象灾害监测预警与风险管理重点实验室，宁夏回族自治区银川750002；2.吴忠市气象局，宁夏回族自治区吴忠751100）摘要为了准确预报日光温室内日最低气温，助力农户趋利避害，利用2018年—2020年冬季日光温室内外的气象观测资料，分别以温室外气温和温室外气温结合温室内气温为因子，采用逐步回归法对番茄日光温室和辣椒日光温室各建立两种最低气温预报模型。以前1d温室外最低、最高气温和当天温室外最低、最高气温为因子建立的番茄日光温室最低气温预测模型的绝对误差（ABSE）和均方根误差（RMSE）分别为1.76℃和1.97℃，辣椒日光温室模型ABSE、，RMSE分别为1.06℃和1.31℃；以前1d温室内外逐小时气温和当天温室外最低气温为因子建立的番茄日光温室最低气温预测模型ABSE和RMSE分别为0.44℃、0.55℃，辣椒日光温室最低气温预测模型ABSE和RBSE分别为0.52℃、0.67℃。关键词日光温室；最低气温；预测模型中图分类号S162.5+5文献标志码Adoi:10.3969/j.issn.1673-887X.2023.06.047ResearchonMinimumTemperatureForecastTechnologyinSolarGreenhouseWeiYue'e1,2,DuHongjuan1,2(1.KeyLaboratoryforMeteorologicalDisasterMonitoringandEarlyWarningandRiskManagementofCharacteristicAgricultureinAridRegions,ChinaMeteorologicalAdministration,Yinchuan750002,NingxiaHuiAutonomousRegion,China;2.WuzhongMeteorologicalOffice,Wuzhong751100,NingxiaHuiAutonomousRegion,China)AbstractAbstract：Inordertoaccuratelypredictthedailyminimumtemperatureinthesolargreenhouse,helpfarmerstoseekadvantagesandavoiddisadvantages,theminimumtemperaturepredictionmodeloftomatoandpeppersolargreenhousewereestablished.Theabso‐luteerror(ABSE)androotmeansquareerror(RMSE)oftheminimumtemperaturepredictionmodelofthetomatosolargreenhousebasedonthefactorsofthelowestandhighesttemperatureoutsidethegreenhouseonthepreviousdayandonthecurrentdayare1.76℃and1.97℃.Forthepeppersolargreenhouse,theABSEis1.06℃,andtheRMSEis1.31℃.TheABSEofthetomatosolargreenhousepredictionestablishedbythehourlytemperatureinsideandoutsidethegreenhouseonthepreviousdayandtheminimumtemperatureoutsidethegreenhouseonthecurrent...
