理论方法UrbanTransportofChinaVol.21No.2March2023城市交通二○二三年第二十一卷第二期摘要：客流预测是市域(郊)铁路规划设计的必要环节和重要依据，然而其研究体系和技术方法仍处于初步实践阶段。考虑旅客群体异质性，提出基于乘客画像的复杂客群解析方法，归纳既有市域(郊)铁路的客流特征。完善并创新市域(郊)铁路客流预测方法，提出分客群、分层次交通需求分析以及多情景、多时间维度线路客流预测技术路线。同时，明晰市域(郊)铁路与城市轨道交通客流预测内容的异同，基于市域(郊)铁路建设的二元场景指出利用既有铁路开行市域(郊)列车的线路应增加旅客聚集人数、不同运营时刻表和客运组织模式对客流的影响等分析内容。以某市郊铁路S1线为例，从需求分析、网络化运营、站城一体化开发、多源数据融合等角度总结市域(郊)铁路客流预测需关注的问题，实现对客流预测工作的精细化管理。关键词：市域(郊)铁路；客流预测；客流特征；需求分析PassengerCharacteristics-BasedPassengerFlowPredictionMethodforMetropolitanRailwayWANGJing1,LAIYihuan2,LIUJianfeng2(1.BeijingUrbanConstructionDesign&DevelopmentGroupCo.,Ltd.,Beijing100037,China:2.BeijingUrbanConstructionTransportPlanning&DesignInstituteCo.,Ltd.,Beijing100037,China)Abstract:Thoughpassengerflowpredictionisofvitalimportanceformetropolitanrailwayplanning,thesystematicresearchandmethodologyarestillinthestageofexploration.Consideringthepassen-gers'heterogeneity,amethodforanalyzingcomplexpassengergroupsbasedonpassengerfeaturesisproposedtosummarizethepassengerflowcharacteristicsofmetropolitanrailway.Onsuchbasis,thispaperimprovesandinnovatesthepassengerflowpredictiontheoryformetropolitanrailway,putsfor-warddemandanalysisofdifferent-typepassengers,andpredictiontechnologyroadmapsinmulti-sce-narioandmulti-temporaldimensions.Inaddition,thesimilaritiesanddifferencesinthepredictionbe-tweenurbanrailtransitandmetropolitanrailwayareanalyzed.Basedonthedualscenarioofmetropol-itanrailwayconstruction,thepaperpointsoutthattheinfluenceofthenumberofpassengers,differentoperatingschedules,andpassengerorganizationmodesonpassengerflowshouldbeconsideredfornew-constructedlines.Finally,thekeypointsofpassengerflowpre...
