基于多源资料的高原低涡源地研究.pdf

Sciences(in Chinese),47(3):837-852.doi:10.5-9895.2211.21262SSXiuping,et al.2023.Reexamine the Tibetan Plateau Vortices Sources Based on Multiple Resource Datasets J.Chinese Journal of AtmosphericLIN Zhiqiang,GUO Weidong,YAO林志强，郭维栋，姚秀萍，等.2 0 2 3.基于多源资料的高原低涡源地研究 U.大气科学，47(3)：8 37-8 52.May20232023年5月Chinese Journal ericSciencesVol.47 No.3学科第47 卷第3期基于多源资料的高原低涡源地研究林志强1郭维栋姚秀萍3杜军4葛骏周振波41成都信息工程大学大气科学学院高原大气与环境四川省重点实验室，成都6 10 2 2 52南京大学大气科学学院，南京2 10 0 2 33中国气象局干部培训学院，北京10 0 0 8 14西藏高原大气环境科学研究所，拉萨8 50 0 0 0摘要高原低涡是活跃于青藏高原近地面层的中尺度天气系统，是高原最重要的降水天气系统，少部分的低涡移出高原后在下游地区常带来灾害性的强降水天气。“青藏高原低涡切变线年鉴”（简称年鉴）是高原低涡研究的主要参考资料之一，但受到高原西部地区探空观测站点分布不足的影响，年鉴难以监测发源于高原西部的低涡。为了进一步提高对高原低涡源地的科学认识，本研究首先分析了影响高原低涡发生发展的环流在高原东西部地区的差异，结果表明高原西部地区的环流背景更有利于高原低涡形成。再利用2 0 0 52 0 19 年暖季（59 月）风云-2地球静止卫星观测的云迹风和黑体亮温资料对年鉴低涡进行重分析，表明年鉴中大部分的高原低涡可以溯源至高原西部地区。最后分析了在高原西部的3个新探空站（狮泉河、改则和申扎）建立前后年鉴中高原低涡源地的差异，发现增加的探空资料使位于高原西部的低涡源地大幅度增加。综合多源资料的结果，我们认为大多数高原低涡起源于高原西部，年鉴的结论可能源于高原西部的探空站不足的影响。本研究确认了再分析资料在高原低涡研究中的可用性和有效性，强调了卫星观测资料在高原天气系统研究中的重要性和进一步增强高原地区气象观测的迫切性。关键词高原低涡（TPV）低涡源地包多源资料高原低涡生成指数文章编号10 0 6-9 8 9 5(2 0 2 3)0 3-0 8 37-16中图分类号P448文献标识码Adoi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2211.21262Reexamine the Tibetan Plateau Vortices Sources Based onMultiple Resource DatasetsLIN Zhiqiang,GUO Weidong,YAO Xiuping,DU Junt,GE Jun,and ZHOU Zhenbo41 Plateau Atmosphere and Environment Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province,School of Atmospheric Sciences,Chengdu University of InformationTechnology,Chengdu6102252 School of Atmospheric Sciences,Nanjing University,Nanjing 2100233 CMA Training Centre,China Meteorological Administration,Beijing 1000814 Tibet Institute of Plateau Atmospheric and Environmental Science,Lhasa 850000收稿日期2021-12-31；网络预出版日期2 0 2 3-0 1-0 6作者简介林志强，男，19 8 2 年出生，博士，主要从事高原气象学研究。E-mail:通讯作者郭维栋，E-mail:资助项目国家自然科学基金项目42 0 30 6 11、42 16 50 0 5，第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究项目2 0 19 QZKK0103、2 0 19 Q ZK K 0 10 5，高原与盆地暴雨灾害四川省重点实验室开放基金项目SZKT202107，成都信息工程大学科技创新能力提升计划重大项目KYTD202201Funded byNational Natural Science Foundation of China(Grants 42030611,42165005),Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and ResearchProgram(Grants 2019QZKK0103,2019QZKK0105),Heavy Rain and Drought-Flood Disasters in Plateau and Basin Key Laboratory ofSichuan Province(Grant SZKT202107),Key Grant Project of Science and Technology Innovation Capacity Improvement Program ofChengdu University of Information Technology(Grant KYTD202201)838Vol.47ChineseoulrnaSciences（47卷学科Abstract The Tibetan Plateau vortex(TPV)is a kind of mesoscale weather system that exists near the surface of theTibetan Plateau(TP).TPVs are the major precipitation-producing weather system over the TP,and a small portion of theTPVs move off the TP,causing catastrophic heavy rainfall in the downstream areas of the TP.The yearbook of the TPVsedited by the Chengdu Institute of Plateau Meteorology offers important references in the field of TPVs research.TheTPV source of the yearbook is dominantly located over the eastern TP,but most TPVs obtained via the reanalysis aregenerated over the western TP.It is the most significant difference between the TPVs derived from the yearbook and thereanalysis.To clarify the source of TPVs,we first examine the differences in the general circulation between the easternand western regions of the TP that affect the development of the TPVs and find that the large-scale circulation in thewestern TP is more favorable to the generation of TPVs.Second,the atmospheric moving vector and blackbody brighttemperature derived from the FY-2 geostationary satellites during 2005-2019 are used to reexamine the TPV sourcesfrom the yearbook,showing that most TPVs are generated from the western TP.Finally,we checked the difference in theTPV source via the yearbook between the former and later periods of the construction of the three new sounding stationsover the western TP,which are Shiquanhe,Gaize,and Shenzha.It shows that the new data significantly increases theproportion of TPVs generated from the western TP.Combining the results obtained from multiple sources,we concludethat most TPVs originate in the western part of the TP,and the conclusion of the yearbook may be misguided because ofthe insufficient soundings in the western part of the TP.This study confirms the availability and reliability of reanalysisdata in the study of TPVs and emphasizes the importance of satellite-based observations in the study of weather systemsand the urgency of further enhancing observations over the TP.Keywords Tibetan Plateau vortex(TPV),TPV sources,Multiple resource datasets,Genesis index for TPVs1引言高原低涡是青藏高原（以下简称高原）近地面层（50 0 hPa）生成的中尺度天气系统（叶笃正和高由禧，19 7 9），是高原上最主要的降水系统（郁淑华等，2 0 12;Curioetal.,2019;Li etal.,2020a)，少部分的低涡移出高原后在下游地区常带来灾害性的强降水天气（TaoandDing，19 8 1；郁淑华和高文良，2 0 0 6;Lietal.,2021）。如果说高原是亚洲的水塔，那么高原低涡就是为这座水塔提供补给的重要“供水管”，因此对高原低涡研究不仅关系到高原地区降水天气预报水平的提高，还与亚洲水塔的水资源补给研究息息相关。从2 0 世纪6 0 年代以来，对高原低涡的活动特征就是气象学家们关注的重点之一（陈乾，19 6 4；吴永森，19 6 4；青藏高原气象科学研究拉萨会战组，1981），高原低涡的源地是低涡活动特征的重要组成部分。虽然观测资料乏给高原低涡源地的研究带来了重大的困难，但老一辈科学家们仍然用他们高超的学识和精准的判断力研究了高原低涡的可能源地。例如：钱正安等（19 8 4）基于第一次青藏高原气象实验期间1