气候模式CAS-ESM-C对1月热带太平洋流场模态的模拟评估.pdf

Oceanin JanuaryChineseJournalofAtmosphericSciences(inChinese),47(3):725-738.do1:10.3878006-9895.2205.21016Dongling,LU Xu,ZHANG Ming,et al.2023.Simulation and Evaluation of Climate Model CAS-ESM-C for Flow Field Modes in the Tropical PacificZHANG张东凌，卢，张铭，等.2 0 2 3.气候模式CAS-ESM-C对1月热带太平洋流场模态的模拟评估J.大气科学，47(3)：7 2 5-7 38.May2023Chineciences2023年5月Vol.47 No.3第47 卷第3期学科气候模式CAS-ESM-C对1月热带太平洋流场模态的模拟评估张东凌1卢妇72,3张铭3吕庆平3,41中国科学院大气物理研究所，北京10 0 0 2 92解放军32 0 2 1部队，北京10 0 0 943国防科技大学气象海洋学院大气环流与短期气候预测实验室，南京2 1110 14解放军9 10 0 1部队，北京10 0 143摘要利用气候模式CAS-ESM-C从192 2 年起8 4年的模拟资料，对1月份热带太平洋上层流场作复EOF分解及小波分析，并与实况以及理论解析解作对比讨论，以考察模式对赤道大洋上层流场的模拟能力，得到主要结论：（1）复EOF分解前3个模态的方差贡献为53.5%、12.9%、9.5%，累积方差贡献为7 5.9%，累积方差贡献比实况更高。（2）第一、二模态空间场与实况相比总体相像，流场都为赤道所俘获，在俘获区内的流场均以偏纬向流为主；差异在于模拟资料分析的赤道俘获区范围较实况要大，流场的经向流分量及越赤道流也较实况明显。（3）第一、二模态实时间系数序列无线性变化趋势，而实况则有。复EOF模态年际及年代际变化与实况相同或相近；第一、二模态中37 年的年际变化是厄尔尼诺与南方涛动（ENSO）的反映；第一模态2 2 2 3年的年代际变化受北太平洋主要气候模态北太平洋年代际振荡（PDO）对热带太平洋的影响，而第二模态13年的年代际变化是受北太平洋次要气候模态北太平洋环流振荡（NPGO）对热带太平洋的影响：第一、二模态还都有峰值16年的年代际变化，这可能与印尼穿越流有关。（4）模拟资料分析的结果具有理论解析解中流场为赤道所俘获及流场为纬向流的特点，只是解析解中因无风应力强迫，流场呈纯纬向流。（5）第一（二）模态在赤道太平洋东部（中部）有海温动力异常，并可称之为东（中）部型ENSO模态。气候模式CAS-ESM-C对热带太平洋上层流场的模拟表现较佳。关键词同气候模式CAS-ESM-C复EOF分析热带太平洋流场异常文章编号10 0 6-98 95(2 0 2 3)0 3-0 7 2 5-14中图分类号P732文献标识码马Adoi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2205.21016Simulation and Evaluation of Climate Model CAS-ESM-C for Flow FieldModes in the Tropical Pacific Ocean in January3,ZHANG Ming,and LU Qingping2,33,4ZHANG Dongling,LU Xu?1 Institute of Atmospheric Physics,ChineseAcademy of Sciences,Beijing1000292Unit 32021,PLA,Beijing1000943 Laboratory of Atmospheric Circulation and Short-range Climate Forecast,College of Meteorology and Oceanography,National University ofDefense Technology,Nanjing 2111014Unit91001,PLA,Beijing100143收稿日期2021-01-28；网络预出版日期2022-06-27作者简介张东凌，男，197 4年出生，博士、助理研究员，主要从事气候学研究。E-mail:通讯作者卢，E-mail:资助项目国家重点研发计划项目2 0 16 YFB0200800Funded byNational Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant 2016YFB0200800)Vol.47ChineseSciences72647卷学科Abstract In this study,complex Empirical Orthogonal Function(CEOF)and wavelet analyses are applied to the 84-yearsimulation flow fields in January of the climate model CAS-ESM-C from 1922.The simulation results were comparedwith the actual situation and theoretical analysis solution to examine the simulation ability of the model for the upperequatorial ocean flow field.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)The variance contributions of the first three modes ofthe CEOF decomposition are 53.5%,12.9%,and 9.5%,respectively.The cumulative variance contribution was 75.9%,which is higher than the actual situation.(2)The first and second eigenvector patterns are similar to the actual situation.The equator captures the flow fields,and the flow fields in the capture region are dominated by the partial latitudinal flow.The difference is that the equatorial capture area in this study is larger than the actual situation,and the longitudinal flowcomponent,as well as the cross-equatorial flow,are also more obvious than that of the actual situation.(3)There is nolinear trend in the real-time coefficient sequence of the first and second modes in this study,but this trend exists in theactual situation.The inter-annual and inter-decadal variations of the CEOF modes are similar to the actual situation.Theinter-annual variation of 3-7 years in the first and second modes reflects ENSO(El Nino-Southern Oscillation).The inter-decadal variation of 22-23 years in the first mode is influenced by the North Pacific main climate modal PDO(PacificDecadal Oscillation).The inter-decadal variation of 13 years in the second mode is influenced by the North Pacificsecondary climate modal NPGO(North Pacific Gyre Oscillation).Both modes have an inter-decadal variation of 16 years,which may be related to the cross-flow in Indonesia.(4)The results in this paper show that the flow field is captured bythe equator and zonal in the theoretical analytical solution.However,the flow field is pure zonal due to the absence ofwind stress in the analytical solution.(5)The first(second)mode has dynamic SSTA(sea surface temperature anomaly)in the eastern(central)equatorial Pacific Ocean,which can be called the eastern(central)ENSO mode.The climate modelperforms well in simulating the upper flow field of the tropical Pacific Ocean.Keywords Climate model CAS-ESM-C,Complex empirical orthogonal function,Tropical Pacific Ocean,Circulationanomalies1引言地球系统模式是用以确定地球系统各部分性状而构成的数学物理模型，对地球系统复杂的物理、化学、生物过程进行模拟和试验，是对系统做出预测的工具。2 0 0 7 年中国科学院启动了“地球系统动力学研究”项目。中国科学院地球系统模式CAS-ESM由大气环流模式、陆表层物理及水文过程模式、海洋环流模式（包括海冰模式）、海洋生物地球化学模式、气溶胶及大气化学模式、全球植被动力学模式和陆地生物地球化学模式这7 个子模式耦合构成（曾庆存等，2 0 0 8；周广庆等，2 0 2 0）。中国科学院气候系统模式CAS-ESM-C则由大气环流子模式、陆表层物理子模式、海洋环流子模式（包括海冰模式）耦合组成，是CAS-ESM的核心框架和关键部分，在CAS-ESM开发研制中起着十分重要作用（孙泓川等，2 0 12）。目前CAS-ESM-C模式已建成，现进入对其模拟结果的系统评估和优化改进阶段，而这也是目前迫切要做的工作。采用CAS-ESM-C模式进行数值模拟并对之进行评估是一项不可忽缺的重要工作，这也有利于模式的优化改进。孙泓川等（2 0 12）利用可靠的观测及再分析资料对CAS-ESM-C模式模拟的气候平均态做了评估。CAS-ESM-C模式的10 0 年耦合积分在经历最初十几年调整后，在大气和海洋表层达到了稳定状态，并成功控制了气候漂移。CAS-ESM-C模式也基本能