气候态调整对华北冬、夏季气候监测的影响研究.pdf

Monitoring J.Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences(in Chinese),47(3):599-615.doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2202.21200GONGZhiqianget al.2023.Differences between Various North China Climatic Normals in Winter and Summer:A Study of Its Impact on ClimateLI Xiaofan,YU Changwen,李晓帆，于长文，龚志强，等.2 0 2 3.气候态调整对华北冬、夏季气候监测的影响研究 J.大气科学，47(3：59 9-6 15.May 20232023年5月ChinessciencesVol.47No.3第47 卷第3期学科气候态调整对华北冬、夏季气候监测的影响研究李晓帆1,2于长文 1,2龚志强3,4封国林3车少静1,2李天宇25,61河北省气象与生态环境重点实验室/河北省气候中心，石家庄0 50 0 2 12中国气象局雄安大气边界层重点开放实验室，雄安新区0 7 18 0 03中国气象局国家气候中心开放实验室，北京10 0 0 8 14常熟理工学院电子与信息工程学院，苏州2 150 0 05牡丹江市气象局，牡丹江157 0 106吉林省气候中心，长春130 0 6 2摘要本研究对比分析了不同气候态下，华北冬、夏季降水及气温的差异，分析了气候平均值的改变对历史极端事件监测的可能影响。研究结果发现，19 9 12 0 2 0 年（简称气候I态）的冬季和夏季的平均降水量均略多于19812 0 10 年（简称气候1态），但接近或略少于19 6 12 0 2 0 年的平均降水量，平均降水量逐年变化幅度冬季I态小于I态，夏季反之。气候I态冬季降水空间分布不均，夏季较I态呈“中部减少，东西增加”的分布型。冬季和夏季极端降水阈值II态（0.8 6 mm和2 2.0 mm）较1态（0.8 3mm和2 1.6 mm）均略有提高，造成近6 0 年华北大部基于II态阈值的冬、夏季极端降水日数较I态略减少。此外，气候I态的华北冬、夏季平均气温均明显高于态，也高于19 6 12 0 2 0 年平均值。II态气温较I态基本呈全区增加特征，但空间分布不均匀。冬季极端低温和夏季极端高温阈值I态（-9.8 和2 7.9）较态（-10.2 和2 7.5）均有所有所提高，造成华北大部分地区基于II态阈值的近6 0 年冬季极端低温日数较I态有所增加，夏季极端高温日数较I态存在不同程度的减少。因此，新气候态下华北气温和降水均值，华北大部极端降水阈值和极端气温阈值均有所提高，造成气候监测中更容易出现气温偏低，降水偏少，历史极端事件监测中极端事件略减少的情况，在未来10 年的气候监测预测业务中要充分考虑新气候态可能造成的影响。关键词华北冬季夏季气候态差异文章编号10 0 6-9 8 9 5(2 0 2 3)0 3-0 59 9-17中图分类号P466文献标识码Adoi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2202.21200Differences between Various North China Climatic Normals in Winterand Summer:A Study of Its Impact on Climate MonitoringLI Xiaofan2,YU Changwen:2,2,GONG Zhiqiang3,44,FENG Guolin,CHE Shaojingl2,and LI Tianyu1,25,61 Key Laboratory of Meteorology and Ecological Environment of Hebei Province/Hebei Climate Center,Shijiazhuang 050021收稿日期2021-10-30；网络预出版日期2 0 2 3-0 1-12作者简介李晓帆，女，19 9 2 年出生，硕士，工程师，主要从事短期气候预测研究。E-mail:1xf_通讯作者龚志强，E-mail:资助项目国家重点研发计划项目2 0 18 YFA0606301，国家自然科学基金项目42 0 7 50 57、42 2 7 50 50，河北省气象局延伸期重要天气过程智能预测技术创新团队Funded byNational Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant 2018YFA0606301),National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grants 42075057,42275050),Hebei Meteorological Bureau Innovative Team of the Intelligent Forecast of the Extended RangeImportantWeatherProcessVol.47600ChineseaSciences大47卷科学2 China Meteorological Administration Xiongan Atmospheric Boundary Layer Key Laboratory,Xiongan New Area 0718003 Laboratory for Climate Studies,National Climate Center,China Meteorological Administration,Beijing 1000814 Department of Physics and Electronic Engineering,Changshu Institute of Technology,Suzhou 2150005MudanjiangMeteorological Bureau,Mudanjiang1570106JilinClimateCenter,Changchun130062AbstractTThis research compared and analyzed the precipitation and temperature differences in North China duringwinter and summer under different climate conditions to explore the characteristics and differences between variousclimate normals in this region and their impacts on regional climate monitoring.Then,we analyzed the impact of theseaverage climatic changes on extreme historical events.Investigations revealed that although the average precipitation inwinter and summer during 1991-2020(climate state II)was more than that during 1981-2010(climate state I),it waslesser than that in 1961-2020.However,the annual variation of state II was smaller than that of state I in winter,whereas vice versa in summer.Furthermore,although the state II climate precipitation of the different regions varied inwinter,it decreased in the central area and increased in the eastern and western parts of North China in summer.Also,weobserved that the average winter and summer extreme precipitation thresholds in North China were higher in state II(0.86 and 22.0 mm)than in state I(0.83 and 21.6 mm),causing several extreme precipitation days in winter and summerin most parts of North China for the past 60 years.This event,however,reduced corresponding to state II than I.Although the average winter and summer temperatures of state II were significantly higher than those of state I,theyremained higher than the average winter and summer temperatures of 1961-2020,indicating that while state IItemperatures maintained the characteristic of being overall warmer than state I,the change characteristics of thedifferent regions varied.Conversely,the extremely low average winter temperature and the extremely high summertemperature threshold in state II(-9.8C and 27.9C)exceeded those in state I(-10.2C and 27.5C),causing severalextremely low winter temperature days in most parts of North China corresponding to state II for the past 60 years.Whilethis event increased compared with state I,the extremely high summer temperature days corresponding to state IIreduced to varying degrees compared with state I.Overall,our investigations propose that applying new climate normalswill increase the extreme precipitation and extreme temperature thresholds in most parts of North China,leading to morefrequent low temperatures,less precipitation,and less extreme historical climate events in climate monitoring.Hence,thepossible impact of th