基于水文水动力模型的山洪灾...宗店村“7·20”山洪为例_郝思佳.pdf

水利水电技术(中英文)第 54 卷 2023 年第 6 期Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Vol.54 No.6郝思佳,王文川,马强,等.基于水文水动力模型的山洪灾害复盘策略:以河南王宗店村“720”山洪为例J.水利水电技术(中英文),2023,54(6):1-11.HAO Sijia,WANG Wenchuan,MA Qiang,et al.A numerical rehearsal strategy of flash flood disaster with hydrological and hydrodynamic modelling:case study of“720”flash flood disaster in Wangzongdian Village,Henan ProvinceJ.Water Resources and Hydropower Engi-neering,2023,54(6):1-11.基于水文水动力模型的山洪灾害复盘策略:以河南王宗店村“720”山洪为例郝思佳1,2,王文川1,马 强2,李昌志2,刘昌军2(1.华北水利水电大学 水资源学院,河南 郑州 450046;2.中国水利水电科学研究院 防洪抗旱减灾中心,北京 100038)收稿日期:2022-10-22;修回日期:2023-01-11;录用日期:2023-01-12;网络出版日期:2023-01-20基金项目:国家重点研发计划项目(2019YFC1510603);水利部重大科技项目(SKR-2022034)作者简介:郝思佳(1992),女,博士研究生,研究方向为水利工程。E-mail:919028780 通信作者:马 强(1987),男,高级工程师,博士,研究方向为水信息学。E-mail:maqiang Editorial Department of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering.This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license.摘 要:【目的】近年来我国由极端降雨事件导致的洪涝灾害频发,多造成严重的经济损失及人员伤亡。针对山洪反演模拟过程中数据收集及模拟方法选型困难的问题,为了在实际实施复盘中制定广适性的模拟方案,提出基于水文、水动力模型的山洪灾害快速复盘模拟策略。【方法】选取河南省王宗店“720”山洪灾害典型事件,采用国产水文、水动力模型,结合激光点云测量技术对此次极端降雨造成的山洪灾害进行数字化重演。【结果】结果显示:考虑由于上游桥梁拥堵而造成的溃决,王宗店村模拟洪峰流量达到 782 m3/s,与灾后调查结果基本一致,相对误差+8%;12:00 至 14:00 随着降雨量的不断增大,王宗店村上游大部分地区淹没水深达到 25 m,王宗店村附近与下游地区大部分淹没水深超过 5 m。【结论】结果表明:王宗店村“720”重大山洪灾害主要成因在于极端暴雨导致山区洪水汇集、路基壅水溃决后,高位洪水短距离快速涌流至村内,造成大量人员伤亡。经验证,基于水文水动力模型的山洪灾害复盘策略可以进行来水分析与洪水过程模拟,为今后我国山洪灾害复盘模拟分析、灾后重建提供技术支撑。关键词:水文模型;水动力模型;山洪灾害;灾害复盘分析;河南暴雨;极端降雨;气候变化;洪水预报DOI:10.13928/ki.wrahe.2023.06.001开放科学(资源服务)标志码(OSID):中图分类号:TV122文献标志码:A文章编号:1000-0860(2023)06-0001-11A numerical rehearsal strategy of flash flood disaster with hydrological and hydrodynamic modelling:case study of“720”flash flood disaster in Wangzongdian Village,Henan ProvinceHAO Sijia1,2,WANG Wenchuan1,MA Qiang2,LI Changzhi2,LIU Changjun2(1.College of Water Resources,North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power,Zhengzhou 450046,Henan,China;2.China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Beijing 100038,China)1郝思佳,等/基于水文水动力模型的山洪灾害复盘策略:以河南王宗店村“720”山洪为例水利水电技术(中英文)第 54 卷 2023 年第 6 期Abstract:Objective In recent years,extreme rainfall events caused frequent flood disasters,which caused serious economic losses and casualties.Data collection and simulation method selection are the main problem of flash flood simulation.In order to develop a reference simulation scheme with wide applicability in the actual implementation,a simulation strategy for rapid recur-rence of flash flood disaster based on hydrological and hydrodynamic models is proposed.Methods The extreme rainfall event in the history of Zhengzhou City,Henan Province on July 20th,2021,is selected as the case study.Wangzongdian Village and its upstream basin are selected as the research area.Combined with laser point cloud measurement technology,a domestic hydro-logic-hydrodynamic model is conducted to recurrent flood process.Results The result show that:considering the collapse caused by the upstream bridge congestion,the simulated flood peak flow of Wangzongdian Village reached 782 m3/s,which is basically consistent with the post-disaster survey result,with a relative error of only+8%;with the increasing rainfall from 12:00 to 14:00,the submerged water depth of most of the upstream areas of Wangzongdian Village reaches 2 m to 5 m,while the submerged water depth of most of the areas near Wangzongdian Village and downstream areas exceeds 5 m.Conclusion The main cause of this serious disaster is the flood accumulated in the mountainous area caused by extreme rainfall broke the dike along the road and flow directly into the village through the main road.It has been proved that the flash flood disaster recurrence strategy can carry out water source analysis and flood process simulation,and provide technical support for the future flash flood disaster mechanism analysis and post-disaster reconstruction.Keywords:hydrological model;hydrodynamic model;flash flood disaster;disaster rehearsal analysis;extreme rainfall in Henan;extreme rainfall;climate change;flood forecast0 0 引引 言言 山洪在我国主要指发生在山丘区小流域(面积200 km2以内)由强降雨引发的溪河洪水,具有范围小、历时短、突发性高、破坏力强等特点,极易造成大量的人员伤亡和社会经济损失1。据应急管理部统计显示,2021 年我国发生强降雨事件总共 42 次,面平均降水量约为 659 mm,比往年增加 6%左右,致使 5 901 万人受灾,经济损失约为 2 458.9 亿元2。开展山区小流域山洪灾害复盘模拟分析,对理解山洪成因、提高我国山区防洪减灾能力、总结防治经验、建立健全山洪灾害预防与防治体系具有十分重要的意义3。虽然我国山区的基础监测设施仍需进一步完善,使得精细化的数据获取存在一定难度,加大了山区洪水复盘的难度4,但是通过合理制定山洪复盘策略并建立国产模型,可以在有限的数据基础上实现精细化的灾后复盘。数值算法的改进与计算机技术的快速发展,为精准、高效的洪水分析模拟提供了条件。分布式水文-水动力模拟可以根据流域下垫面空间差异性,重演不同水文要素变化对水循环过程的影响5-6。赵建飞等7通过考虑土壤-风化基岩界面在产流中的作用,建立了针对山丘区变动产流层的分布式水文模型VRGL,在我国湿润山丘区屯溪流开展了应用,结果表明 VRGL 具有较高的精度(洪峰流量和洪量的相对误差均在 20%内),可用于山丘区洪水预报。刘昌军等8-9通过分析小流域超渗和蓄满机制在时、空2 个维度转换组合,提出了时空变源产流模型 SKBY和模块化分布式水文模型 FFMS,经验证该模型提高了对短历时、强降雨条件下洪水的模拟精度。水文模型在我国洪水预报预警中已得到了广泛的应用,但其模型输出结果是根据流域水文条件获得的产汇流过程,无法实现对淹没区洪水演进的动力描述10,且当流域自然产汇机制由于洪水造成的地形变化产生改变时,模拟精度受影响较大。水动力模型不仅能模拟水流在河道及河漫滩的演进过程,也可模拟泛滥洪水在受堤防保护的城市与农村的演进过程以及由暴雨形成的洪水内涝,其输出为积水淹没范围的时空变化过程。有限体积法是当前水动力模型中比较常用的数值计算方法,其中基于 Godunov 格式求解黎曼近似解的浅水数值模拟精度较好且应用广泛11-12。张大伟等13-14基于非构造网格的 Godunov 格式,建立了降雨径流二维水动力模型,经验证该模型具备对地表径流运动进行精细化