船舶压载水系统可靠性分析杨咏1，王晓2，兑红炎2，陶俊勇3(1.中国船舶集团有限公司第七〇四研究所，上海200031；2.郑州大学管理学院，河南郑州450001；3.国防科技大学智能科学学院装备综合保障技术重点实验室，湖南长沙410073)摘要:压载水系统能过保证船舶在航行过程中船体稳定,是邮轮重要的组成部分。由于压载水系统结构复杂，系统可靠性难以分析。为了分析压载水系统的可靠性变化，考虑系统在连续时间下的状态变化，基于连续贝叶斯网络，建立了一种新的船舶压载水系统可靠性分析方法。首先基于压载水系统的故障机理，提出动态故障树模型。然后利用单位阶跃函数和冲激函数，将动态故障树模型转化为连续时间的贝叶斯网络，对系统可靠性进行分析，最后，利用算例对船舶压载水系统进行仿真，得到船舶压载水系统的可靠性以及剩余寿命随时间变化的曲线。关键词：压载水系统；动态故障树；可靠性；连续贝叶斯网络中图分类号：U661.1文献标识码：A文章编号：1672–7649(2023)12–0035–05doi：10.3404/j.issn.1672–7619.2023.12.007ReliabilityanalysisofshipballastwatersystemYANGYong1,WANGXiao2,DUIHong-yan2,TAOJun-yong3(1.The704ResearchInstituteofCSSC,Shanghai200031,China;2.SchoolofManagement,ZhengzhouUniversity,Zhengzhou450001,China;3.LaboratoryofScienceandTechnologyonIntegratedLogisticsSupport,CollegeofIntelligenceScienceandTechnology,NationalUniversityofDefenseTechnology,Changsha410073,China)Abstract:Ballastwatersystemisanimportantpartofthecruiseship.Itcanensurethestabilityoftheshipduringnav-igation.However,thereliabilityofballastwatersystemisdifficulttoanalyzebecauseofthecomplexityofitsstructure.Inordertoanalyzethereliabilityofballastwatersystem,anewreliabilityanalysismethodisestablishedbasedoncontinuousBayesiannetwork.Thismethodtakesintoaccountthestatechangeofthesystemundercontinuoustime.Firstly,basedonthefailuremechanismofballastwatersystem,adynamicfaulttreemodelisproposed.Then,usingunitstepfunctionandim-pulsefunction,thedynamicfaulttreemodelistransformedintoacontinuoustimeBayesiannetworktoanalyzethesystemreliability.Finally,theshipballastwatersystemissimulatedusingthearithmeticexampletoobtainthereliabilityandthecurveofremaininglifewithtime....
