科技管理研究ScienceandTechnologyManagementResearch2023No.72023年第7期doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-7695.2023.7.024高铁工程全生命成本智能预测模型与实证研究喇海霞，段晓晨，牛衍亮（石家庄铁道大学管理学院，河北石家庄050000)摘要：为提高高铁工程成本估算的准确性，简化高铁工程成本估算程序，提出基于显著性成本理论的高铁工程全生命成本智能预测模型。首先，结合已完同类工程量清单，运用显著性成本理论，确定同类工程显著性成本项目与显著性因子；其次，运用余弦相似度法，结合已完工程与拟建工程的工程特征数据，完成相似工程的筛选；再次，结合相似工程数量的多少，分别选用基于PSO-RBF、PSO-LSSVM、FCM聚类、FIS的模糊推理预测模型进行高铁工程全生命成本预测；最后，通过实例验证该模型的准确性与可行性。研究结果表明，该模型的运用确保了估算的精度，并提高了高铁工程成本估算效率。关键词：显著性成本理论；高铁工程；RBF神经网络；最小二乘向量机；模糊推理中图分类号：F52；O242；TB11；O29文献标志码：A文章编号：1000-7695（2023）7-0213-08IntelligentPredictionModelandEmpiricalStudyonLife-circleCostforHigh-speedRailwayProjectLaHaixia,DuanXiaochen,NiuYanliang（SchoolofEconomicsandManagement,ShijiazhuangTiedaoUniversity,Shijiazhuang050000,China）Abstract:Inordertoimprovetheaccuracyofthecostestimationofhigh-speedrailwayengineeringandsimplifythecostestimationprocedureofhigh-speedrailwayengineering,proposesanintelligentpredictionmodelofthewholelifecostofhigh-speedrailwayengineeringbasedonthesignificancecosttheory.Firstly,determinetheCSIsandcsfofsimilarprojectsbyusingthesignificancecosttheorycombinedwiththecompletedlistofsimilarprojects.Secondly,selectsimilarprojectscombinedwiththecharacteristicsofcompletedprojectsandplannedprojectsbyCosineSimilarity.Then,forecastthewholelifecostofhigh-speedrailwayprojectsbyselectingdifferentestimationmodelsbasedonPSO-RBF,PSO-LSSVM,FCMclusteringandFIS,combinedwiththenumberofsimilarprojects.Finally,verifytheaccuracyandfeasibilityofthemodelbyanexample.Theresultsshowthatthepredictionmodelensurestheaccuracyofestimationandimprovestheefficiencyofcostestimationofhigh-speedrailwayengineering.Keywords:si...
