引用格式：陈春利，方志伟，2023.福建省地质灾害气象预警有效降雨模型研究[J].地质力学学报，29（1）：99−110.DOI：10.12090/j.issn.1006-6616.2022090Citation:CHENCL，FANGZW，2023.ResearchonaneffectiverainfallmodelforgeologicaldisasterearlywarninginFujianProvince,China[J].JournalofGeomechanics，29（1）：99−110.DOI：10.12090/j.issn.1006-6616.2022090福建省地质灾害气象预警有效降雨模型研究陈春利，方志伟CHENChunli，FANGZhiwei中国地质环境监测院（自然资源部地质灾害技术指导中心），北京100081ChinaInstituteofGeo-EnvironmentMonitoring(ConsultativeCentreofGeo-HazardMitigation,MNR),Beijing100081,ChinaResearchonaneffectiverainfallmodelforgeologicaldisasterearlywarninginFujianProvince,ChinaAbstract:Rainfallisoneofthemostimportantexternalfactorsinducinggeologicaldisasters,especiallyprominentinChina’smountainousregions.Manygroup-occurringgeologicaldisastersinducedbyheavyrainfalloccurredinsoutheastChina’smiddleandlowmountainousregions,causingmanycasualtiesandpropertylosses.TakingFujianProvinceasanexample,wecarefullyexaminedtheactualrainfalldataofhistoricalgeologicaldisastercasesandconductedcorrelationstudiesontypicalrainfallprocessesinducinggroup-occurringgeologicaldisastersbasedonquantitativerainfallestimationwithcounty-leveladministrativedistrictsasthestatisticalunit.Wealsocarriedoutapartialcorrelationanalysisbasedonquantitativeindicatorsofthegeologicalenvironmentforverification.TheresultshowsthattheoccurrenceofgeologicaldisastersinFujiancorrelateswithadequaterainfallwithinthreedays,anditisreducedbyareductioncoefficientof0.79daily.Basedonthatfinding,weestablishedaneffectiverainfallmodelforFujianProvinceandverifieditthroughfieldmonitoringandearlywarningapplications.ApplyingthisrainfallmodeltogeologicaldisasterearlywarninginFujiancanreducethewarningarea,lowerthewarninglevel,shortenthewarningduration,andimprovetheaccuracyofgeologicaldisasterearlywarningbymaintainingthehitratio.Theresultsofthestudycanhelptocharacterizetherainfallaccuratelyandcanprovideascientificbasisforthereasonableasse...
