废铅膏熔炼再生烟气处理设施...故下大气污染的不确定性分析_邱盼盼.pdf

废铅膏熔炼再生烟气处理设施事故下大气污染的不确定性分析邱盼盼1,2，徐亚1*，能昌信1,2*，刘玉强1，董路1，林汀1,2，张鲁玉1,21.环境基准与风险评估国家重点实验室，中国环境科学研究院固体废物污染控制技术研究所2.山东工商学院信息与电子工程学院摘要熔炼再生是重金属危险废物资源化利用最广泛的方式之一。熔炼设施废气处理单元失效条件下废气排放具有源强大、短期排放扩散参数偶然性强等特点，其环境后果呈现强随机性，对事故应急过程的精准监测和科学决策形成极大挑战。对此，提出高斯烟羽模型与随机响应面法耦合(GAUSS-SRSM)的风险评估方法，定量评估复杂源强、扩散参数及其不确定性条件下污染物的随机分布及概率特性。选择华北某再生铅企业开展案例研究，结果表明：在该区域典型气候条件下，下风向 0.82.2 和0.751.5 km 处 SO2和 Pb 浓度存在超标可能，最大落地浓度超标概率分别为 44%和 28%，以 95%置信水平表征的暴露浓度分别为 0.68、0.005 2 mg/m3，分别超过其 GB 30952012环境空气质量标准二级标准限值 1.36 倍和 1.16 倍。季节性的风速和气温等差异导致同一设施不同季节的污染及其概率特征差异较大。以 Pb 为例，冬季较夏季存在超标可能的最大范围相差 0.6km，超标概率相差 24%，暴露浓度相差 0.003 9 mg/m3。气候和源强等的不确定性使得大气污染后果存在明显的不确定性，下风向 0.5 km 处不确定性最大，为 3.85；随着距离变大，不确定性变小，3.0 km 处仅为 1.74。下风向 0.82.2 km 污染严重程度大、可能性高，需要避免在该区域布设污染敏感的设备或装置，且应作为事故后应急监测重点关注的区域；而 0.51.2 km 不确定性大，也需要通过加强监测频率等方式克服随机性误差。关键词废铅膏；熔炼再生；事故工况；概率风险；随机响应面法中图分类号：X523 文章编号：1674-991X（2023）02-0517-10doi：10.12153/j.issn.1674-991X.20220253Uncertainty analysis of air pollution under accidents of flue-gas treatmentfacilities for waste lead paste smelting regenerationQIU Panpan1,2,XU Ya1*,NAI Changxin1,2*,LIU Yuqiang1,DONG Lu1,LIN Ting1,2,ZHANG Luyu1,21.State Key Laboratory of Environmental Criteria and Risk Assessment,Research Institute of Solid Waste Management,Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences2.School of Information and Electronic Engineering,Shandong Technology and Business UniversityAbstractSmelting regenerating is one of the most widely used ways to recycle heavy metal hazardous waste.Under the failure of the flue-gas treatment units of smelting facilities,the exhaust gas emission has thecharacteristics of significant source intensity,strong randomness of short-term emission diffusion parameters,andstrong randomness of the environmental consequences,which poses a great challenge to the accurate monitoring andscientific decision-making in the emergency response.In this regard,a risk assessment method based on GaussianPlume Model-Stochastic Response Surface Method (GAUSS-SRSM)coupling was proposed to quantitativelyevaluate the random distribution and probability characteristics of pollutants under complex source intensities,diffusion parameters and their uncertainties.An enterprise in North China was selected to carry out a case study.Theresults showed that under the typical climatic conditions of the region,the concentrations of SO2 and Pb at 0.8-2.2km and 0.75-1.5 km downwind might exceed the standard.The probability of exceeding the maximum groundconcentration limit was 44%and 28%,respectively.The exposure concentrations characterized at 95%confidence 收稿日期：2022-03-18基金项目：国家重点研发计划项目(2020YFC1806304，2018YFC1800902)；国家自然科学基金项目(51708529)作者简介：邱盼盼（1995），女，硕士，主要研究方向为环境风险智能监测与预警，*责任作者：1.徐亚(1985)，男，副研究员，博士，主要从事固体废物处置技术、污染探测及风险评价研究，2.能昌信(1965)，男，教授，博士，主要从事环境监测技术研究， Vol.13，No.2环境工程技术学报第 13 卷，第 2 期Mar.，2023Journal of Environmental Engineering Technology2023 年 3 月邱盼盼，徐亚，能昌信，等.废铅膏熔炼再生烟气处理设施事故下大气污染的不确定性分析 J.环境工程技术学报，2023，13（2）：517-526.QIU P P,XU Y,NAI C X,et al.Uncertainty analysis of air pollution under accidents of flue-gas treatment facilities for waste lead paste smeltingregenerationJ.Journal of Environmental Engineering Technology，2023，13（2）：517-526.level were 0.68 and 0.005 2 mg/m3,which exceeded Ambient Air Quality Standards(GB 3095-2012)by 1.36 timesand 1.16 times,respectively.Seasonal differences in wind speed and temperature,etc.led to large differences inpollution and its probability characteristics in different seasons at the same facility.In the case of Pb,for example,the maximum range of potential exceedances in winter differed by 0.6 km from that in summer,with 24%differencein exceedance probability and 0.003 9 mg/m3 difference in exposure concentration.The uncertainty of climate andsource intensity made the air pollution consequences have obvious uncertainty,with the maximum uncertainty of3.85 at 0.5 km downwind.As the distance increased,the uncertainty decreased,with only 1.74 at 3.0 km.As thelarge degree and high possibility of pollution occurred at 0.8-2.2 km downwind,it was necessary to avoid thedeployment of pollution-sensitive equipment or devices in this area,and it should be used as a key area foremergency monitoring after the accident;while the uncertainty of 0.5-1.2 km was large,it was also necessary toovercome the random error by strengthening the monitoring frequency.Key wordswaste lead paste;smelting regeneration;accident conditions;probabilistic risk;stochastic responsesurface method 金属采冶和加工、废铅蓄电池拆解等产生的重 金 属 危 险 废 物（heavy metal hazardous wastes，HMHWs），由于产生量大、危害性强，是全球固体废物管理的关注焦点1。HMHWs 占全国危险废物产生总量 30%以上，同时，该类废物所含危害组分以重金属为主，危害特性具有持久性和累积性，随意处置会产生负面环境影响和急性、慢性等多种人体危害。资源化利用是解决 HMHWs 环境问题的重要途径和发展趋势，熔炼再生兼具有害组分无害化处置和有价金属回收利用双重效应，是 HMHWs 资源化利用的主要方式2。据统计，通过再循环再利用金属及其化合物达 901 万 t，占我国危险废物利用总量的36.5%3。尽管熔炼再生资源化利用具有显著的减污降碳协同效应，但是由于 HMHWs 中含多种有害组分，在其生命周期的加工利用及利用后产物使用阶段，有害物质可能通过物质循环和转化过程释放造成二次污染，这增加了对其进行风险评估并根据风险实施污染排放控制等风险管控措施的必要性4。为此，相关领域的机构和学者开展了大量的研究工作。如在制度层面，世界主要国家均以法律或强制性国家标准的形式规定，危险废物利用必须保证利用过程的污染物排放和利用产物中的有害物限值满足一定要求，环境影响和环境风险可接受。配合制度实施，这些国家还