中国碳中和之路—可再生能源的视角和角色.pdf

Chinas route to carbon neutrality:Perspectives and the role of renewables IRENA 2022Unless otherwise stated,material in this publication may be freely used,shared,copied,reproduced,printed and/or stored,provided that appropriate acknowledgement is given of IRENA as the source and copyright holder.Material in this publication that is attributed to third parties may be subject to separate terms of use and restrictions,and appropriate permissions from these third parties may need to be secured before any use of such material.ISBN:978-92-9260-449-3IRENA(2022),Chinas route to carbon neutrality:Perspectives and the role of renewables,International Renewable Energy Agency,Abu Dhabi.About IRENAThe International Renewable Energy Agency(IRENA)serves as the principal platform for international co-operation,a centre of excellence,a repository of policy,technology,resource and financial knowledge,and a driver of action on the ground to advance the transformation of the global energy system.An intergovernmental organisation established in 2011,IRENA promotes the widespread adoption and sustainable use of all forms of renewable energy,including bioenergy,geothermal,hydropower,ocean,solar and wind energy,in the pursuit of sustainable development,energy access,energy security and low-carbon economic growth and prosperity.www.irena.org AcknowledgementsIRENA would like to express sincere appreciation to the experts who reviewed the report.Insightful comments and constructive suggestions were provided by the Energy Research Institute of the Academy of Macroeconomic Research,China.Special thanks go to Paul Komor,who provided helpful feedback and advice.IRENA colleagues Herib Blanco,Seungwoo Kang,Martina Lyons,Daniel Russo,Francisco Boshell,Carlos Fernandez,Faran Rana and Jinlei Feng provided valuable reviews and input.Contributing authorsThis report was prepared,under the guidance of Dolf Gielen(Director,IRENA Innovation and Technology Centre)by Paul Durrant(former IRENA staff),Nicholas Wagner,Yong Chen(IRENA)and Yufeng Yang(consultant).DisclaimerThis publication and the material herein are provided“as is”.All reasonable precautions have been taken by IRENA to verify the reliability of the material in this publication.However,neither IRENA nor any of its officials,agents,data or other third-party content providers provides a warranty of any kind,either expressed or implied,and they accept no responsibility or liability for any consequence of use of the publication or material herein.The information contained herein does not necessarily represent the views of all Members of IRENA.The mention of specific companies or certain projects or products does not imply that they are endorsed or recommended by IRENA in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned.The designations employed,and the presentation of material herein,do not imply the expression of any opinion on the part of IRENA concerning the legal status of any region,country,territory,city or area or of its authorities,or concerning the delimitation of frontiers or boundaries.CHINAS ROUTE TO CARBON NEUTRALITY3CONTENTSABBREVIATIONS5EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 6IRENAs technology-focused analysis 7Areas for action and initial recommendations 71.CHINAS CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSION GOALS IN THE GLOBAL CONTEXT 171.1 Global context 171.2 Chinas unique characteristics 182.SHAPING A STRATEGY FOR THE 2020s AND BEYOND202.1 Developing and delivering an integrated long-term energy plan 21 2.2 Maintaining energy efficiency improvements as a priority 222.3 Accelerating the phase-down of coal consumption 232.4 Accelerating the transition towards renewable power 252.5 Reforming power networks 272.6 Increasing the electrification of end-use sectors 312.7 Expanding the direct use of renewables,particularly biomass for energy purposes 342.8 Scaling up the production and use of hydrogen and synthetic fuels 362.9 Supporting cities as champions of low-carbon living 392.10 Continuing progress in light-duty transport and broadening to heavy-duty and long-haul modes 402.11 Laying the groundwork for industrial sectors to achieve net zero emissions 442.12 Continuing to support technology RD&D and broader systemic innovation 482.13 Deepening global engagement 493.CONCLUSIONS AND AREAS FOR FURTHER WORK51REFERENCES524FiguresFIGURE 1 Emerging innovations for the integration of variable renewable electricity enabling technologies,market design,business models,system operation 28FIGURE 2 Electrification rate in final energy consumption(a),transport(b)and residential buildings (c)by country,1980-2017 31FIGURE 3 Hydrogen production costs,2020-2050 37FIGURE 4 Chinese industrial CO2 emissions by sector,2020-2050(Reference case)45BoxesBOX 1 CDR measures and CCUS for power and industrial processes 29BOX 2 Chinese city case study:Urban energy transformation in Zhangjiakou 40CHINAS ROUTE TO CARBON NEUTRALITY5ABBREVIATIONSC degrees CelsiusBECCU/S bioenergy with carbon capture and utilisation/storage CCS carbon ca