J.P. 摩根-欧洲电梯行业-电梯推销：一个结构上具有吸引力的市场越来越多地受到基于服务的收入流的驱动-2022.3.11-128页.pdf

Europe Equity Research11 March 2022 First Principles-Global Elevator IndustryThe Elevator Pitch:A structurally attractive market increasingly driven by service-based revenue streamsEuropean Capital GoodsAndrew Wilson AC(44-20)7742-Bloomberg JPMA AWILSON J.P.Morgan Securities plcYuxin Lin(44-20)7742-J.P.Morgan Securities plcAndreas Willi(44-20)7134-J.P.Morgan Securities plcAkash Gupta(44-20)7742-J.P.Morgan Securities plcWilliam Ashman,CFA(44-20)7742-J.P.Morgan Securities plcTranjot Singh(91-22)6157-J.P.Morgan India Private LimitedUS Electrical Equipment&Multi-IndustryC.Stephen Tusa,Jr CFA(1-212)622-J.P.Morgan Securities LLCSector Specialist(Sales&Trading)contact details:Lara A Delgado-Sales and Trading(44-20)7134 See page 122 for analyst certification and important disclosures,including non-US analyst disclosures.J.P.Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports.As a result,investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment First Principles is our published series of company and sector primers.The focus of the series is an understanding of the history,key drivers,and valuation methodologies,rather than the current rating,estimates or target price.Whether you are a generalist or specialist,this is designed as a reference guide for both beginners and experts.Please contact the analyst for further details and our current views on the topic.Elevator&Escalator market.We estimate the global E&E market is worth$80bn with 1m new installations per annum.The market has grown at an 8%CAGR over the past 20 years.After a decade of strong growth,China represents 60%of global new installations.The market structure is attractive,characterized by a consolidated supplier base,a highly fragmented customer base,high barriers to entry and scale economics.We estimate the four largest elevator OEMs represent 65%of global new equipment sales and 55%of service sales.Business model structure.The E&E market players share a common business model of new installations,attached maintenance contracts and modernization solutions.Conversion rates from new installation to maintenance contracts are high,particularly in Western markets,and,outside of China,maintenance contracts generate significantly higher margins than new installations.The customer base,split of new equipment/service sales and economics vary significantly by region with China particularly markedly different from Western markets.New installations represent 48%of OEM sales with service representing 52%and expected to grow as a percentage in the future.Growth drivers.The E&E market benefits from a number of structural growth drivers:1)Urbanization and population growth,2)Further expansion of service franchises with the most significant opportunity in China,3)Modernization opportunities on an ageing installed base,4)Connected equipment and service offerings,and,5)For the OEMs,market consolidation opportunities in a fragmented service market.Financial profile.The E&E stocks have seen above sector sales growth over the past decade,helped by growth in China new installation volumes.Service growth averages MSD per annum and is expected to take over as the primary growth driver in the future.Operating models are asset-light and cash dynamics are very strong with little working capital requirement.As a result,operating returns and cash conversion are amongst the strongest in Capital Goods.Excess cash is typically deployed in bolt-on M&A,dividends and share buy-backs.2Europe Equity Research11 March 2022Andrew Wilson(44-20)7742- Table of ContentsBusiness model basics.4How Elevator OEMs make money.4The value chain.4Why customers buy from large elevator OEMs.5Global Elevator market fundamentals.7The global elevator market today.7Development of the global elevator market.9Future growth expectations.10Summary regional characteristics.10Competitive landscape.13Key macro indicators.17Elevator Service primer.25Maintenance.25Modernisation.28Why service is important for the Elevator companies and what drives demand.29Growth and profitability in Elevator Service.32Profitability in Service.34Elevator Service and COVID-19.34How did the businesses perform?.34What we have learned in the COVID-19 period.37Evolution of elevator service(1)the impact of connectivity,IoT and digital solutions.38Connected Elevator Service The theory of a win-win.38A framework for assessing the impact of connectivity on Elevator Service.40Kones connected offering.42Otis offering and strategy.44Schindler offering and strategy.45TK Elevator offering and strategy.47Challenging the win-win hypothesis.49Third-party entrants.51The evidence so far practice versus theory.51Our view on how the connected Elevator Service market will develop.53Evolution of Elevator Service(2)Specifiable contracts.55Kone Care.55Otis Signature Service.56Schindl