National Geographic 2015年第01期.pdf

JANUARY 2015The Firsts IssueTHE FIRST ARTISTSTHE FIRST YEAR OF LIFETHE FIRST CITY OF AFRICATHE FIRST GLIMPSE OF THE HIDDEN COSMOSHOW A TINY 12,000-YEAR-OLD TEENAGER BECAMETHE FIRST AMERICANJ J JANUARUARUAUA AU UAUAU U U U U UAU U U U UY 2 2015015JANUARY 2015 VOL.227 NO.132 The First ArtistsCredit them with a piv-otal innovation in human history:the invention of symbolic expression.By Chip Walter Photographs by Stephen Alvarez58 The First YearIn the incredible learning machine that is a babys brain,development depends on loving caretakers.By Yudhijit Bhattacharjee Photographs by Lynn Johnson 108 A First Glimpse of the Hidden CosmosAs scientists map the universe,what they cant seedark energy and dark matteris key.By Timothy Ferris Photographs by Robert Clark 124 Tracking the First AmericansGenetic data and new archaeological discoveries offer clues to the mystery of early Americans origin.By Glenn Hodges 138 Proof|First Bird The bald eagle may be a majestic national symbolbut its also one tough bird.By Klaus NiggeAfricas First CityIn Lagos,Nigeria,a boom economy widens the rift between the wealthy and the poor.By Robert Draper Photographs by Robin Hammond78The wedding of Gbenga Adeoti and his bride,Funmi Olojede,featured traditional customs and attire of the Yoruba,Lagoss main ethnic group.On the Cover Geneticists say that Native Americans ancestors were Asians who separated from other Asian populations and remained isolated for about 10,000 years.Art by Tomer HanukaCorrections and Clarifications Go to JOURNAL OF THE NATIONAL GEOGRAPHIC SOCIET YFirstsFROM THE EDITORLooking AheadThis issue of National Geographic is built around the idea of“firsts”discoveries,innovations,and actions that changed the world.As a first,its hard to top the bravery of Ruby Bridges,who tells us in our 3 Questions feature what it was like to be the first child to desegregate an American public elementary school in the South.We also use the term less formally,as in a photo essay on Americas“first”bird(the bald eagle)or a vibrant story on Africas“first”city(Lagos,Nigerias com-mercial center,which is driving the biggest economy on the continent).So in an issue of firsts,how do we forecast what comes next?What will be the next“firsts”that will change us,our families,our communities,and our planet?In an attempt to answer some of those questions,we went to the experts and futurists who contemplate coming changes both prosaic and profound.Take Paul Saffo,a Silicon Valley seer who,in 1994(four years before the founding of Google),predicted that the future belonged to“those who control the filtering,search,and sensemaking tools we will rely on to navigate through the banal expanses of cyberspace.”Indeed.Whether its about the anticipated demise of the combustion engine or a de-crease in divorce,we hope youll find these experts ideas thought provoking as we en-ter 2015.One cautionary note:No predictor is always right.In what he calls his“worst forecast,”Saffo wrote in 1993 that“cyber-punks are to the 1990s what the beatniks were to the 60sharbingers of a mass movement waiting in the wings.”Thats one mass movement we still await.Onward to the next firstsand Happy New Year!Susan Goldberg,Editor in Chief HOW WE WILL LOVEWITHIN 10 TO 20 YEARSPepper Schwartz Professor,University of WashingtonDivorce may decrease after the baby boomers,who have a high divorce rate,age into their 50s and 60s.We will also see more people who are in love but do not share a domicile.Though definitely couples,these people are tied to different places because of a job or family,or be-cause they love where they live.Maybe we will see people going back and forth between assisted living facilities.HOW WE WILL LIVEWITHIN 5 TO 10 YEARSPaul Saffo,Technology ForecasterDriverless cars will share roadways with conventional cars.This will happen in urban areas first and will take a decade to fully diffuse.In the long run,people wont own cars at all.When you need to go somewhere,youll have a subscrip-tion to an auto service,and it will show up at your door.Were moving away from a purchase economy.We will subscribe to access rather than pay money for possessions such as smartphones.We wont buy software anymore;well subscribe to it.A new religion could emerge in the next decade or two,perhaps based around the environment.Digital technology is the solvent leaching the glue out of our global structureincluding shaking our belief systems to the core.“THERE IS A REAL CHANCE YOU WILL NEVER DIE,SINCE MORTALITY MAY BE JUST A TECHNICAL PROBLEM WE SOLVE.”Byron ReeseHOW WE WILL HEALWITHIN 10 TO 20 YEARSBertalan Mesk Medical Futurist Author of The Guide to the Future of MedicineThe next decades of medicine and health care will be about using technologies and keeping the hu-man touch in practicing medicine.Everyones genomes will be se-quenced to access personalized treatments.Well measure almost any health parameters at home with diagnos-tic devices and smartphones.The 3-D printing revolution will