汽车工业芯片展望-17页.pdf

OCTOBER 2022Automotive Industry Semiconductor OutlookEarly signs suggest that the semiconductor supply will remain tight in the coming yearsSource:BCG analysis.Note:ADC=analog-to-digital converter;E/E=electrical/electronic;IGBT=insulated gate bipolar transistor;MEMS=microelectromechanical systems;MOSFET=metal oxide semiconductor field effect transistor;nm=nanometer;OEM=original equipment manufacturer.The automotive semiconductor market is expected to grow by more than 9%annually through 2030.The adoption of electric vehicles(EVs)and advanced driver-assistance systems(ADAS)will substantially increase the semiconductor content in vehicles,even as production volume remains steady.Battery electric vehicles(BEVs),which are expected to have the highest market share among EVs by 2026,have twice the semiconductor content of internal combustion engine(ICE)vehicles,owing to the need for discrete-power and analog chips.ADAS Level 2+is expected to gain the largest market share among assistance systems.Each additional level of sophistication exponentially increases the need for memory and logic computing.As a result,some semiconductor supply challenges are expected to persist through 2026.Shortages of analog chips and MEMS may persist given limited planned-capacity investments.Discrete-power chips may experience additional demand pressure with the adoption of 800-volt vehicles;there may be insufficient wide-bandgap manufacturing capacity to meet demand.Approximately 50%of future fabrication capacity is planned in mainland China,which will increase risk if the planned capacity does not come online or is inaccessible to Western OEMs and Tier 1 suppliers.Automotive demand growth will be highest for logic chips made on 20nm to 45nm nodes in order to meet the increasing computing needs of centralized electrical/electronic architectures;we expect this to ease demand pressure on mature node sizes larger than 55nm.Pandemic-induced manufacturing and logistics challenges are easing,but supply issues will persist140020182019Baseline market cycle20202021Demand shock20222023Ongoing supply issues likelyQ1Q2 2020Demand dipSupplyDemand outlook(no easing)Demand outlook(with easing)Demand SupplyDemandSEMICONDUCTOR DEMAND AND SUPPLY,INDEXED TO THE QUARTERLY AVERAGE OF 20182018Demand:100Supply:100(Baseline)2019Demand:99Supply:1012020Demand:99Supply:1032021Demand:118Supply:10620222023The demand outlook for the remainder of 2022 and 2023 has eased,while the supply forecast has improved with the inclusion of new capacity,primarily in ChinaForecastAveragesDemand:121123Supply:113Demand:124127Supply:123Sources:BCG IC Model Forecast;BCG analysis.Note:Semiconductors are purchased one quarter before the actual end-market sales year.Demand forecasts are determined by expected demand of representative industries.Supply forecasts are determined by foundry capacity.Semiconductor memory devices not included in this analysis.The auto industry currently occupies a small share of the semiconductor market,but its growing rapidlyAbove market averageBelow market averageSources:Gartner;BCG analysis.1Other industries include aerospace and defense and communications infrastructure.GLOBAL SEMICONDUCTOR DEMAND BY SEGMENT(%)202126 CAGRxEVsADAS Level 3or HigherOthers1AutoConsumerelectronicsData centerIndustrialSmart phonesPCsTotal:11%4%9%2%7%9%2%5%1%15%5%60%99141025211012232711118112021$591B2026$767BAutoadoptionShare expected to grow based on strong demand to support EVs and ADASStable growth,near market averageAdoption of cloud storage and computing will support continued growth Strong demand growth expected,to support adoption of connected solutions and smart machines Growth will slow coming out of 5G super cyclePandemic-driven refresh cycle will trend downward before reaching steady state Increasing semiconductor content per vehicle will promote demand,even as total vehicle production remains steadySources:Gartner;Strategy Analytics;BCG IC model forecast;BCG analysis.ForecastForecast20217977202220298320238593202488202520278994202690922028203020212022202920232024202520272026202820306407107708208909409801,1701,0401,100LIGHT VEHICLE PRODUCTION(MILLIONS)SEMICONDUCTOR CONTENT PER VEHICLE,BLENDED AVERAGE($)+2.2%+6.9%Sources:Gartner;Strategy Analytics;BCG semiconductor supply-demand forecast;BCG powertrain model;BCG analysis.Note:BEV=battery electric vehicles;FCEV=fuel-cell electric vehicles;HEV=hybrid electric vehicles;MHEV=mild hybrid electric vehicles;PHEV=plug-in hybrid electric vehicles.BEVs are expected to have the largest share of the market and require the most semiconductor contentForecast35116131224207321106126102381122138115423169159472824107192539232121341327122228273123132029391830SHARE OF LIGHT VEHICLE PRODUCTION(%)DieselMHEVHEVPHEVBEVFCEVGasoline39070HEV19%BaseMHEV53%FCEVICEPHEV27%BEV200440500270580203061%22%16%570SEMICONDUCTOR CONTENT PER VEHICLE TYPE($)BEV2021 Adoption of premium wide-bandgap chips is expected to increase demand for power-discrete chips