嫩江流域多年降水特征分析_鹿之慧.pdf

嫩江流域多年降水特征分析鹿之慧，王东升*，王丹宁，潘 帅(辽宁工程技术大学环境科学与工程学院，辽宁阜新 123000)摘要 目的 探究嫩江流域降水及季节性降水变化特征。方法 选取该流域内 10 个气象站，基于 19692010 年逐日降水数据，计算年降水量及冬夏季降水量，采用 MannKendall 趋势检验法分析流域降水变化趋势，采用 TheilSen estimator 来计算趋势幅度，并利用MannKendall 突变检测法确定流域降水量发生突变的关键节点，综合分析嫩江流域降水的时间变化特征。结果 近 42 年来嫩江流域年降水量以 47 mm/10 a 的幅度不显著下降，夏季降水量下降幅度(101 mm/10 a)高于年降水量，冬季降水量则表现为显著上升趋势，变化幅度为 13 mm/10 a。嫩江流域年降水量为37315078 mm，夏季降水量为23173094 mm，冬季降水量为36114 mm，中上游的降水量高于下游，10 个站点年降水量主要以下降趋势为主，夏季降水量均表现为下降趋势，除乾安站降水量不显著下降外，其他站点冬季降水量均表现为上升趋势。夏季降水变化与年降水表现为较高的相似性，两者的 MannKendall 突变检验结果也在形态上非常相近，均出现 3 个阶段的趋势变化，且波峰相近;在 20 世纪 70 年代前后为第 1 阶段，表现为减少趋势;8090 年代为第 2 阶段，表现为增加趋势;21 世纪初期为第 3 阶段，再次表现为下降趋势。在 005 显著性水平上，年、夏季降水量在 20 世纪 70 年代前后和 21 世纪初期存在多个突变点，降水减少阶段变化较不稳定，增加阶段无交点存在。冬季与年、夏季结果差异较大，表现为在 19731978 和 19801986 年降水量下降，其他时间段降水量上升;1998 年为 005 显著性水平上的交点。结论 嫩江流域多年降水特征以夏季降水量占年降水量比重大，且经历了减少增加减少趋势变化，最终表现为减少趋势。冬季降水量在 1998 年出现突变节点，该年之后冬季降水量显著增加。夏季降水是洪涝隐患之一，但多年来，不断增长的冬季降水变化也要给予关注。关键词降水量;变化特征;MannKendall 检验;趋势分析;突变检验;嫩江流域中图分类号S162文献标识码A文章编号05176611(2023)01020404doi:103969/jissn05176611202301046开放科学(资源服务)标识码(OSID):Analysis on Characteristics of Annual Precipitation in Nenjiang iver BasinLU Zhi-hui，WANG Dong-sheng，WANG Dan-ning et al(College of Environmental Science and Engineering，Liaoning Technical Univer-sity，Fuxin，Liaoning 123000)AbstractObjectiveTo investigate the characteristics of precipitation and seasonal precipitation changes in the Nenjiang iver Basin Method Ten meteorological stations in the area were selected to calculate the annual precipitation and the winter and summer precipitationbased on their daily precipitation data from 1969 to 2010 The trend of precipitation change and its range were analyzed and calculated by usingthe Mann-Kendall Test and the Theil-Sen estimator respectively，and the Mann-Kendall method in detecting climate mutation was adopted todetermine the key nodes where sudden changes in rainfall occur in the basin，and comprehensively analyze the temporal variation characteris-tics of precipitation in Nenjiang iver Basin esultOver the past 42 years，the annual precipitation in the Nenjiang iver Basin had de-creased insignificantly by 47 mm/10 a The summer precipitation had decreased more than the annual precipitation by 101 mm/10 a，whilethe winter precipitation had shown a significant upward trend than the annual precipitation by 13 mm/10 aThe annual precipitation in the re-gion was 37315078 mm，with the summer and winter precipitation was 23173094 mm and 36114 mm Precipitation in the middle andupper reaches was higher than in the lower reaches The annual precipitation at 10 stations was commonly decreasing，especially in summerExcept Qian an station，where the precipitation does not decrease significantly，all other stations show an increasing trend of winter precipitati-on The changes of summer precipitation and annual precipitation showed a high similarityThe results of the Mann-Kendall mutation test forboth were also very similar in morphology，with both showing a 3-phase trend change and similar wave crests It could be summarized as thefirst stage around the 1970s，which showed a decreasing trend;the second stage in the 1980s1990s，showing an increasing trend;and thethird stage in the early 21st century，which again showed a decreasing trend At the 005 significance level，there were several abrupt changepoints in the annual and summer precipitation around the 1970s and the early 21st century，and the change in the decreasing phase of precipi-tation was more unstable，and no intersection point existed in the increasing phase The difference between winter and annual and summer re-sults was larger，featuring a decrease in precipitation around 19731978 and 19801986，and an increase in precipitation in other periods;1998 was the intersection point at 005 significance level Conclusion The multi-year precipitation characteristics of the Nenjiang iver Basinwere featured with a large proportion of annual precipitation in summer，and it had experienced a decreasing-increasing-decreasing trendchange，and finally showed a decreasing trend The winter precipitation showed a sudden change node in 1998，and the winter precipitation in-creased significantly after that year Summer precipitation was one of the flooding hazards，but the increasing winter precipitation changed overthe years should also be given attention toKey wordsPrecipitation;Change characteristics;Mann-Kendall test;Trend analysis;Mutation test;Nenjiang iver Basin作者简介鹿之慧(1996)，女，辽宁阜新人，硕士研究生，研究方向:生态修复理论。*通信作者，教授，博士，硕士生导师，从事矿山环境修复研究。收稿日期20220223降水趋势变化因其对区域生态系统状况、河流、湖泊等水文过程影响深刻被广泛关注12，位于东北的嫩江流域作为重要的粮食和湿地分布区，因其地理位置特点，对全球变化的敏感性较高34。夏季洪涝灾害对农业生产造成的影响较大。19701990 年洪涝发生频率达 476%5，给人们生产生活造成一定损失。降水作为重要的水文要素6 和灾害性天气的重要诱因7 之一，研究嫩江流域多年降水变化特征，可为流域农业发展、水资源环境及环境保护提供决策依据8。目前，不少学者对东北地区降水变化进行了研究并取得了一定成果912。笔者以嫩江流域为研究对象，选用流域19692010 年逐日降水数据，以 MannKendall 趋势分析、MannKendall 突变检验法为技术支撑，分析流域多年降水及冬、夏两季降水特征，为流域农业生产和生态环境管理与决策提供参考6。安徽农业科学，JAnhui AgricSci 2023，51(1):204207，2461资料与方法11研究区概况发源于大兴安岭伊勒呼里山的中段南侧的嫩江，是黑龙江水系的最长支流，地处我国东北中高纬度地区，地理位置为 11915 12740E、442